A lot of people have asked me about this lately. Here are my thoughts.
There are a lot of people who never look at their stocks except to make decisions once a quarter or so.
If you were holding MVIS five months ago, you may be one of those people and just put a sell order on --- "when it gets to $1 sell."
I think that happened. Then your sell order becomes a market order, and the default at target price -15% or better. (That's how it worked with my broker, when I did such things)
So if 15% of the shares were targeted that way we'd need to sell off about 18 million shares before the price can keep going higher after $1.00. I think that's what's happening.
I think the price is going to close @ .85 +/- a couple of pennies, until there are that many shares traded below a buck. at the current rate, that will be next week...
Tuesday, November 26, 2019
Saturday, November 23, 2019
Just Tried Hololens 2
It's awesome.
Sorry the report is late, family came first for the last few days.
So, Saturday morning, 20 minutes after the exhibit opened, I was at the museum.
Luckily, when they asked if I had an appointment and did not, there was one available in 20 minutes.
In the room there were some chairs to wait, and this amazing model of Mont-Saint-Michel. The model was interesting, but I was more interested in HL2.
This is a Mont-Saint-Michel exhibit, not a Hololens exhibit -- as you can see from the link to the exhibit page. People were using the Hololens, but were intently focused on the display and what it offered. (Which is exactly as it should be. It was seamless.) 70 & 80 year old people (or so they seemed) were using it without any fuss -- completely seamless and instinctive to use it.
I sat down as they fitted HL2 to my head. The host staff here didn't have long experience with the HL2 (One that I talked to had tried HL1.) It is MUCH more comfortable than HL1. I wear glasses, and with glasses on, I can take about 20 minutes with HL1 before it becomes very uncomfortable. I would easily be able to wear HL2 for most of the day and enjoy it.
There was little interactivity with the exhibit. You looked at the model, it gave instructions: when the ball moves around, focus on the ball with your eyes, and it will continue. Easy enough.
The first thing it did then was add moving surroundings to the model... instead of just looking at the model, you were looking at the model with waves and water surrounding it. (Cool!) It was clearly scanning the model because when I moved around it would only put the waves where they belonged, around the outside of the model castle.
I followed the ball, it added and subtracted from the model, superimposing graphics over the physical thing in front of me. If I changed my position, it would compensate, and I could effectively walk around the model and see the changes from whichever position I had.
At one point the ball launched upwards, and I scanned around looking for it... then I was IN the cathedral. The room was maybe 20 by 30 feet, but I could see the other end of the cathedral 150 feet away. In any direction I looked, there was what I would see, and it changed as I moved. (I was tempted to see if I could walk all the way to the other end, but decided they wouldn't appreciate it.)
At another point, there was another completely computer generated model floating in the room. I could walk around that one too and see if from different angles.
One of the more interesting uses of the Hololens was it showed the INSIDE of the model. Here's how they used this part of the structure -- that and it showed pop-up illustrations, and narrated... you could hear it perfectly, but you couldn't hear the sounds from other headsets (I think there were 5 in use at a time.)
This wasn't the HL2 demonstration I was hoping for however. This presentation was designed on Hololens 1 and seemed like the display hadn't changed from HL1. I looked around the outside of the display, and it seemed like there was some display "acreage" that was unused. I was puzzled by this, but I strongly suspect what happened is that they took the presentation that was designed on HL1, and transferred it directly to HL2 -- with the same display dimensions and the same resolution that they were using on HL1.
1 Year Ago
MOHAI - Museum of History and Industry - SeattleMont-Saint-Michel exhibit
Gulf Air Mechanics
Sorry the report is late, family came first for the last few days.
So, Saturday morning, 20 minutes after the exhibit opened, I was at the museum.
Luckily, when they asked if I had an appointment and did not, there was one available in 20 minutes.
In the room there were some chairs to wait, and this amazing model of Mont-Saint-Michel. The model was interesting, but I was more interested in HL2.
This is a Mont-Saint-Michel exhibit, not a Hololens exhibit -- as you can see from the link to the exhibit page. People were using the Hololens, but were intently focused on the display and what it offered. (Which is exactly as it should be. It was seamless.) 70 & 80 year old people (or so they seemed) were using it without any fuss -- completely seamless and instinctive to use it.
I sat down as they fitted HL2 to my head. The host staff here didn't have long experience with the HL2 (One that I talked to had tried HL1.) It is MUCH more comfortable than HL1. I wear glasses, and with glasses on, I can take about 20 minutes with HL1 before it becomes very uncomfortable. I would easily be able to wear HL2 for most of the day and enjoy it.
There was little interactivity with the exhibit. You looked at the model, it gave instructions: when the ball moves around, focus on the ball with your eyes, and it will continue. Easy enough.
The first thing it did then was add moving surroundings to the model... instead of just looking at the model, you were looking at the model with waves and water surrounding it. (Cool!) It was clearly scanning the model because when I moved around it would only put the waves where they belonged, around the outside of the model castle.
I followed the ball, it added and subtracted from the model, superimposing graphics over the physical thing in front of me. If I changed my position, it would compensate, and I could effectively walk around the model and see the changes from whichever position I had.
At one point the ball launched upwards, and I scanned around looking for it... then I was IN the cathedral. The room was maybe 20 by 30 feet, but I could see the other end of the cathedral 150 feet away. In any direction I looked, there was what I would see, and it changed as I moved. (I was tempted to see if I could walk all the way to the other end, but decided they wouldn't appreciate it.)
At another point, there was another completely computer generated model floating in the room. I could walk around that one too and see if from different angles.
One of the more interesting uses of the Hololens was it showed the INSIDE of the model. Here's how they used this part of the structure -- that and it showed pop-up illustrations, and narrated... you could hear it perfectly, but you couldn't hear the sounds from other headsets (I think there were 5 in use at a time.)
This wasn't the HL2 demonstration I was hoping for however. This presentation was designed on Hololens 1 and seemed like the display hadn't changed from HL1. I looked around the outside of the display, and it seemed like there was some display "acreage" that was unused. I was puzzled by this, but I strongly suspect what happened is that they took the presentation that was designed on HL1, and transferred it directly to HL2 -- with the same display dimensions and the same resolution that they were using on HL1.
1 Year Ago
MOHAI - Museum of History and Industry - SeattleMont-Saint-Michel exhibit
Gulf Air Mechanics
Wednesday, November 20, 2019
Quantas Virtual Cockpit
This would make me very happy. Right now, I'm doing some initial training with a few posters hung up. This would be fantastic.
Hey Microsoft, do you have this in CRJ-200?
Microsoft
Hey Microsoft, do you have this in CRJ-200?
Microsoft
Tuesday, November 19, 2019
Smithsonian
Smithsonian
No one will want this
For $3500 you have access skills it takes years of training to develop.
Buy Hololens
I’m in Redmond, Washington, in a room at Microsoft, pondering an all-terrain vehicle that has a busted engine. I have no idea how to fix it. I’ve never done engine repair before.
But I do have some help: On my head, I’m wearing the HoloLens 2,
Microsoft’s “augmented reality” device. It has a see-through visor,
almost like the one on a motorcycle helmet, and the HoloLens projects
images onto the visor so they appear to float in the air before you.
When I look at the vehicle, the HoloLens flickers to life, and a guide to fixing the engine pops up in the air. A blue arrow points at a tableful of tools, and when I walk over to it, the arrow indicates that I should grab a torque wrench. Once I take that tool, a new arrow appears, beckoning me across the room to a case of bolts. I grab a bolt, and a third arrow shows me where on the engine to install and tighten it. In under two minutes I’ve completed the repair.
The sensation is bizarre, like living in a world of Harry Potter magic. I can even touch the holograms. While I’m doing another repair job, a virtual screen with the face of a remote mechanic materializes before me to talk me through the job. The screen is in my way, though—so I grab it by the corner with my fingers, right there in the air, and drag it off to the side.
For $3500 you have access skills it takes years of training to develop.
Buy Hololens
I’m in Redmond, Washington, in a room at Microsoft, pondering an all-terrain vehicle that has a busted engine. I have no idea how to fix it. I’ve never done engine repair before.
When I look at the vehicle, the HoloLens flickers to life, and a guide to fixing the engine pops up in the air. A blue arrow points at a tableful of tools, and when I walk over to it, the arrow indicates that I should grab a torque wrench. Once I take that tool, a new arrow appears, beckoning me across the room to a case of bolts. I grab a bolt, and a third arrow shows me where on the engine to install and tighten it. In under two minutes I’ve completed the repair.
The sensation is bizarre, like living in a world of Harry Potter magic. I can even touch the holograms. While I’m doing another repair job, a virtual screen with the face of a remote mechanic materializes before me to talk me through the job. The screen is in my way, though—so I grab it by the corner with my fingers, right there in the air, and drag it off to the side.
Friday, November 15, 2019
Trimble announces Mixed Reality solution.
Press Release
Trimble announced the availability of the Trimble XR10 with HoloLens 2 system, a worksite-ready mixed-reality solution that enables workers to visualize 3D data on project sites for more efficient planning, collaboration and reporting.
The new solution is enabled by two central components:
- Trimble XR10 with HoloLens 2 - a mixed-reality device purpose-built for integration into an industry-standard hardhat for use in safety-controlled environments
- Trimble Connect for HoloLens - cloud-based software that allows for open and collaborative communication across all stakeholder types, optimized to maximize the benefits of HoloLens 2
Enabling front-line workers in the construction, oil and gas, manufacturing and mining industries, the Trimble XR10 meets international certification standards for impact and electrical protection in most major markets. The device includes all of the new functionality of HoloLens 2, including a flip-up-visor, wider field-of-view and more instinctual interaction enabled by state-of-the-art hand-tracking technology.
The XR10 enables users to overlay Constructible Building Information Models (BIM) and other digital project data onto the physical context of the jobsite.
Thursday, November 14, 2019
AR Use case
Things like this show what developers are up to with AR.
It's Magic Leap, but you can be sure that they'll have a Hololens app as well. (And that Magic Leap will use the best Near Eye display they can find.)
(I tried both Magic Leap, and Hololens 1 and believe they were using the same display.)
Next Reality
Yahoo News
Tuesday, November 12, 2019
Race to Replace Smart Phones
Got the heads up on this from a couple of different sources last night and this morning.
This is where we are.
Given that Microsoft is shipping... it will be happening sooner than CNBC thinks.
CNBC
Fox News
The video is from Fox news.... I've had trouble getting it to play.
****
****
Most of the biggest names in Big Tech are racing to create smart glasses that we wear everywhere and that may replace our phones.
Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Snap, Facebook Apple, Magic Leap and others are all working on some form of smart glasses or headset that will change how we view the world around us. Instead of pulling a phone out of our pockets to talk to people or interact with apps, we may do these things simply by speaking to, and looking through, a set of glasses.
There’s a race to be the first to make a set of glasses that everyone will wear, which means they have to be fashionable and sleek enough to wear all day and everywhere you go. Advocates of the technology hope that you’ll one day be able to replace every screen in your life with just one pair of smart glasses.
This is where we are.
Given that Microsoft is shipping... it will be happening sooner than CNBC thinks.
CNBC
Fox News
The video is from Fox news.... I've had trouble getting it to play.
****
****
Most of the biggest names in Big Tech are racing to create smart glasses that we wear everywhere and that may replace our phones.
Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Snap, Facebook Apple, Magic Leap and others are all working on some form of smart glasses or headset that will change how we view the world around us. Instead of pulling a phone out of our pockets to talk to people or interact with apps, we may do these things simply by speaking to, and looking through, a set of glasses.
There’s a race to be the first to make a set of glasses that everyone will wear, which means they have to be fashionable and sleek enough to wear all day and everywhere you go. Advocates of the technology hope that you’ll one day be able to replace every screen in your life with just one pair of smart glasses.
Friday, November 8, 2019
Connecting Conference Call Dots...
By Ronald Stauber
Our activities related to our Interactive Display solutions resulted in a major step forward during the past few months as customer due diligence work has now led to negotiations for a component purchase agreement that we aim to complete this quarter* for a targeted launch of our Interactive Display module in 2020.
"...we
aim to complete" seems to imply that terms have been agreed to and the
ball is in MicroVision's court with the contract
sitting on PM's desk waiting for him to sign and reveal at an opportune
moment. I believe that he has learned his lesson of prematurely
announcing expectations from the delay caused by Tier-1s requesting the
switch to Class 1 laser light engines.
"These engagements over the past few quarters continue to reinforce our belief that MicroVision has the potential with our Interactive Display product to sell 1 to 3 million units during the first 12 to 24 months of production.
If 3 million units = $100 million in revenue, then we can estimate our expected revenue to be in the area of $33 per unit.
We believe that this capability expands the potential market for our Interactive Display products to include personal mobile gaming devices. With a larger potential market, we believe that we have increased the opportunity for our Interactive Display product to sell well in excess of 10 million units to multiple customers.
So 10 million additional Interactive Display units
sold for mobile gaming should lead to revenues of about $330 million with margins increasing due to economies of scale!
I believe that the TAM will be much greater, but let us err on the conservative side.
I think that is pretty exciting!
I agree, Mr. Mulligan!
Leveraging our years of Laser Beam Scanning experience and our demonstrated capabilities in LiDAR, the Automotive LiDAR vertical is a natural fit for MicroVision. That said, we needed to develop critical additional capabilities to meet some of the performance requirements in this space. With new IP for these innovations recently filed we believe we have the right solution at the right time. Early in 2019 we engaged several top tier Automotive OEMs and presented an outline of our first product to market. This product would be intended to support up to ADAS Level 3 autonomy.
So
MicroVision has been working on this vertical for some time in silence
and has filed for patents on new IP, and in early
2019 engaged with several top tier Automotive OEMs. Sounds like NRE
opportunities exist along the lines of the April 2017 contract with
Microsoft and revenues from this could result. Now which Automotive OEMs
were heavily committing to Microsoft HoloLens2?
Toyota was one, IIRC.
So we could be looking at MicroVision revenues over $400 million, not counting HoloLens2 and other AR/MR contributions or
Display Only or Consumer LiDAR, in the next few years from a public company selling for $0.75 per share currently.
And now it's all public information if you know how to read between the lines.
Thursday, November 7, 2019
Conference Call
I've been gone a lot and extremely focused on some training. Arrived home yesterday just as the conference call was getting started.
This company will be the source of key components in multiple emerging technologies.
I said "I told you you'd hear numbers like that eventually." a number of times yesterday.
Most of the delay is probably from trade adjustments with China. Short term disruptive, long term, this should be a very positive development.
"I can say that certainly looks like our logo."
Is one of the all time best lines in any conference call ever.
Hololens Shipping
Conference Call Transcript
CC Links including recording
Production unit shipments for our April 2017 contract customer began in the third quarter and continue to proceed smoothly, meeting our customers production schedule. Our activities related to our Interactive Display solutions resulted in a major step forward during the past few months as customer due diligence work has now led to negotiations for component purchase agreement that we aim to complete this quarter fora targeted launch of our interactive display module in 2020.
As customer products come to market, we expect our company revenues could reach $100 million over a 12-month period, following product launches that we expect to start in the second half of 2020Let's move on to our automotive LiDAR product. The markets for advanced driver assistance systems is experiencing high growth that we expect to accelerate with the need for safety features and new regulations targeted to come into effect in the next 3 to 4 years.
More Later....
Michael Fawzy Malouf - Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC, Research Division - Partner, Senior Research Analyst & Head of Boston Team
Yes. That's helpful. I didn't realize if this was specifically for Interactive Display only. So that's helpful.And then if I could just ask 1 more question. Just recently, Alex Kipman, who has been really the guru behind the HoloLens 2 did this whole presentation about a month ago, talking about the HoloLens 2 and in that he showed a slide actually of the prototype of the device and its clearly seen on their the MicroVision logo on the PCB Board. So I'm just kind of curious, is that sort of a public validation that you're on the HoloLens 2?
And I would love to get a little bit of comments, specifically, tied to that presentation that Alex gave?
Perry M. Mulligan - MicroVision, Inc. - CEO & Director
Yes. So just that we're on the same page, Mike, I believe that this is -- you're referencing the presentation that Alex made on October 3rd at the ETHGlobal Lecture Series in Zurich?
Michael Fawzy Malouf - Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC, Research Division - Partner, Senior Research Analyst & Head of Boston Team
That's right. In fact, it was titled the HoloLens 2 - Unpacked.
Perry M. Mulligan - MicroVision, Inc. - CEO & Director Right. So he called -- he referenced some of the pictures I think the HoloLens 2 model. And in that picture, it looks like you can see the MicroVisionlogo on some of those components. We can confirm that it appears to be our logo. And beyond that, I can't make any other comment.
This company will be the source of key components in multiple emerging technologies.
I said "I told you you'd hear numbers like that eventually." a number of times yesterday.
Most of the delay is probably from trade adjustments with China. Short term disruptive, long term, this should be a very positive development.
"I can say that certainly looks like our logo."
Is one of the all time best lines in any conference call ever.
Hololens Shipping
Conference Call Transcript
CC Links including recording
Production unit shipments for our April 2017 contract customer began in the third quarter and continue to proceed smoothly, meeting our customers production schedule. Our activities related to our Interactive Display solutions resulted in a major step forward during the past few months as customer due diligence work has now led to negotiations for component purchase agreement that we aim to complete this quarter fora targeted launch of our interactive display module in 2020.
As customer products come to market, we expect our company revenues could reach $100 million over a 12-month period, following product launches that we expect to start in the second half of 2020Let's move on to our automotive LiDAR product. The markets for advanced driver assistance systems is experiencing high growth that we expect to accelerate with the need for safety features and new regulations targeted to come into effect in the next 3 to 4 years.
More Later....
Michael Fawzy Malouf - Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC, Research Division - Partner, Senior Research Analyst & Head of Boston Team
Yes. That's helpful. I didn't realize if this was specifically for Interactive Display only. So that's helpful.And then if I could just ask 1 more question. Just recently, Alex Kipman, who has been really the guru behind the HoloLens 2 did this whole presentation about a month ago, talking about the HoloLens 2 and in that he showed a slide actually of the prototype of the device and its clearly seen on their the MicroVision logo on the PCB Board. So I'm just kind of curious, is that sort of a public validation that you're on the HoloLens 2?
And I would love to get a little bit of comments, specifically, tied to that presentation that Alex gave?
Perry M. Mulligan - MicroVision, Inc. - CEO & Director
Yes. So just that we're on the same page, Mike, I believe that this is -- you're referencing the presentation that Alex made on October 3rd at the ETHGlobal Lecture Series in Zurich?
Michael Fawzy Malouf - Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC, Research Division - Partner, Senior Research Analyst & Head of Boston Team
That's right. In fact, it was titled the HoloLens 2 - Unpacked.
Perry M. Mulligan - MicroVision, Inc. - CEO & Director Right. So he called -- he referenced some of the pictures I think the HoloLens 2 model. And in that picture, it looks like you can see the MicroVisionlogo on some of those components. We can confirm that it appears to be our logo. And beyond that, I can't make any other comment.