XR Day At the University of Washington

 University of Washington Presentation Page

Augmented Reality is Real...

Facebook will be ticker MVRS


Apple Google Facebook Microsoft are all working on Augmented Reality.

MicroVision's near eye display is so good that Microsoft created their AR device around it. (Their words, not mine) and then claimed credit for creating it.

Microvision CEO says "our AR display is DONE."

Mentions that it fits in RayBans during a recent interview. (If someone can come up with the time-stamp, and use the e-mail form for the moment in the interview, I'll include it here.)

Near eye display guy who was at Microvision and moved to Microsoft, moves to Facebook... on the same day that Facebook announced a deal with Rayban

Then, Facebook, does a big presentation about AUGMENTED REALITY -- the METAVERSE

And Facebook is intending to invest 10 Billion in AR THIS YEAR (Only two months left.)

The AR vertical (In my humble opinion) is for sale.

Facebook would be wise to offer more than 10 billion, or they may lose to a higher offer from Apple, Google, or Microsoft.

(I'd vote my shares to taking the higher offer, unless maybe it's from Microsoft who claimed credit for MicroVision's hard work, Microsoft will have to do WAY better.)

Whoever buys us gets to sell AR displays to the other three for a LONG time.

Joanna Makris has a lot in common with Kelli Stavast

Presentation from Investor Place, Just released

 

New Digs?

 Did a drive by yesterday.

AMAZON GLOW

This sure looks like us.... 

 

Amazon announces new video calling device for kids called Amazon Glow

Amazon announced a new product aimed at kids that combines video calling with games coming from a projector. The projected graphics respond to touch.

The aim is to make video calls more engaging for children, Amazon said. Games like “Tangram Bits” allow the kids to solve puzzles on the projected surface while the parent videoconferences from a standard tablet. The device has a “privacy shutter” that turns the camera off.

Disney, Mattel, Nickelodeon, and Sesame Street characters are signed up to make games for the device. Amazon said it would open it up to some outside developers next year.

It costs $249, but won’t be released widely at first and ordering one will require an invitation. People can sign up to test it starting today and Amazon will start shipping devices in “the coming weeks.” — Kif Leswing

"My Missing MVIS Shares"

 They aren't MY missing MVIS Shares, but the title of a Reddit thread.

MUST reading.

Reddit MVIS

I like this

 

ORTEX Short Squeeze Alert

When Mike texted this to me this morning, I'm thinking "whoopie-doopie another one of these. They're common. I see them all the time from people who are selling clicks. Who cares?

I texted back "so what does it mean?" 

The only thing that matters is what it means.

He didn't respond in a timely manner so I started looking into it.

This one is good.

TWITTER ORTEX SHORT SQUEEZE SIGNAL

 

On May 15, Ortex Issued a Short Squeeze Alert for AMC

They issued the alert at about $12.98 for AMC.  11 trading days later it closed at nearly 5X the price it was when the alert was issued. It's still at three times the price.

MVIS has better fundamentals than AMC.

 

I'll hold for this one.

 

The original investing premise for Microvision: Everyone wants a smaller device and a bigger screen

STILL HOLDS TRUE.

Just add some LiDAR into the mix.

The video (I'm about 4 minutes in so far, is a great explanation of AR, and how MicroVision can create more screen real estate.)

AUGMENTED reality Near Eye Displays are worth at least what LiDAR will be worth.

I think a LOT more. 

We are likely in my opinion to get more value in the near term from LiDAR.

What's it worth? 

My recent price target was Minimum of LAZR X 2 Market cap. 

I stand by all my valuation estimates still and I'm happily holding.

APPLE, GOOGLE, AMAZON & MICROSOFT are ALL WORKING ON AUGMENTED REALITY AND SELF-DRIVING VEHICLES....

 Four Companies are all working on two things as "the next big things" Augmented Reality and Self driving vehicles.

Combined they are worth 6.921 Trillion
Together they have 340 billion in cash

If they have a bidding competition for key technology that will give them an edge against the others, how much would they be willing to pay? 

Is 20 Billion too much? (That's about $130/share)

Ferrari has appointed electronics pioneer Benedetto Vigna as its new chief executive

CNBC

 

Ferrari has appointed electronics pioneer Benedetto Vigna as chief executive as the company gears up for the age of electric vehicles.

Vigna will join Ferrari on Sept. 1 from semiconductor firm STMicroelectronics, where he is head of its sensors group.

The Italian sportscar maker announced the appointment in a statement Wednesday. Former CEO Louis Camilleri stepped down for personal reasons in December after a reported battle with Covid-19.

Ferrari said Vigna has experience working for some of the world’s leading technology companies. But the 52-year-old Italian’s appointment has come as a surprise to many given he has not previously worked for an automotive company or a luxury brand.

 

Explained by a sock

 This is good enough (at minute 6) That it's going on.

Thanks for the heads up, OmerJ


 

Cool... this blog gets a mention.

Whats the difference between Niantic and IVAS?

What's 1,000,000,000 / 120,000?

According to my calculations the Niantic heads up we got last week is 8,333 times better than the IVAS news.

There have been more than a billion downloads of Pokemon Go, and the IVAS go-ahead is for 120,000 units.

Pokemon Go is still going strong -- that's Niantic.

Grayson is pretty on top of things.

WATCH THIS BEFORE YOU GO FURTHER -->>>

If you haven't done so, watch this video that he posted last year comparing Digilens to MicroVision. (If it walks like a duck... you know the saying.) HERE
                               

<<<--- WATCH THIS BEFORE YOU GO FURTHER

Don't get me wrong, the IVAS news is FANTASTIC -- it proves the value, proves it works, proves that it's tough enough to fit Military Standards (Look HERE) The dual news flash... wow. 

But the 120,000 units and the volume from that contract isn't the big news.

Volume of production would be the big news. Niantic is that. (Not yet confirmed, I know, but I'm confident it's right.... whether or not you are confident is up to you.)

Pokemon Go information from Business of APPS 

The game launched in July 2016, and became not just a smash hit game, but a global cultural phenomenon; in the summer of 2016, it seemed as if there was no getting away from Pokémon GO. There was even a Pokémon GO Frappuccino! How many games get a drink named after them at Starbucks? How many games inspire 200,000 Spotify playlists?

Pokémon GO Overview

Launched	July 2016
Parent company	Niantic
HQ	San Francisco, California
Key people	Tatsuo Nomura (Pokémon GO director), John Hanke (Niantic CEO)

Key Pokémon GO User Statistics

Cumulative Pokémon GO downloads
September 2016	500 million
February 2017	650 million
July 2017	750 million
May 2018	800 million
March 2019	1 billion

If you don't believe in Pokemon, you don't need to. Of course they wouldn't build single-purpose eyewear. You just need to believe in "walking around games" and Niantic is great at it, and so is UNREAL -- who builds their sofware engine for everyone.

Niantic VS IVAS

******************************************************************

You can change the static variables, but the share float doesn't change often, the tax rate is based on Large Tech companies, MicroVision expenditures are a guess -- actually all of this is a guess, but it is a way for you to play with some of the numbers.

When I test IVAS: (My numbers - you do your numbers.)
Augmented Reality Headsets Produced = 120000
How much will MVIS profit from each?  = 1000
% of AR headsets you think will use it? 100
PE when this happens? = 80

When I test Niantic - the consumer market: (My numbers - you do your numbers)
Augmented Reality headsets produced:     250000000 (250 Million)
How much will MVIS profit from each:   10
% of AR headsets you think will use it:     80
PE when this happens:                                80

Use your own numbers, and remember that buyouts happen with substantially different numbers. Calculating Buyout using EBITDA (To set the buyout number here, I'd guess at increases in sales, average the next five years set expenditures and tax rate to zero, and use 5-15 as the PE. -- remember this is a single vertical.)

(These numbers are without commas, because commas will make the calculator break. Javascript is a pain in the ass.)

What's YOUR price target? (Erase the "*" in the green space and pick your number.) My baseline is $5 ea / 90% of AR Headsets/ PE of 80
How much will MicroVison will profit from each AR Set?
What % of AR Headsets sold do you think will use it?
What do you think the PE of the stock will be when this happens?
Microvision Shares Outstanding { Static }
Augmented Reality Headsets produced (annual)
Total Microvision expenditures annual { Static }
Effective Tax Rate (%)  { Static }
* * * * * * * * *
Number of AR headsets with MVIS you expect
Total Earnings Before Taxes you expect
Microvision Earnings After Taxes
Microvision Net Earnings Per Share
Microvision Price Per Share that you expect

Augmented Reality (Mixed Reality) Will be bigger than LiDAR

....as is really popular to say lately, "Do your own Due Diligence... this is only my own opinion. -- which is true."

Mixed reality is going to replace the screen on your smartphone... and your PC screen.

Pay Close attention to this. Microsoft also going consumer.

And... like LiDAR, EVERY MAJOR Tech company is ALSO going full steam ahead into Augmented reality, and MicroVisions NEAR EYE DISPLAY is the best.

Here is the proof that MicroVision is IN Hololens.

It's also here, I started near the spot in the video. If you search that weird abomination prototype, you will see Microvision's logo (3 times?)



How popular will this be as a consumer product? As popular as Pokemon Go in Taiwan (The first mainstream augmented reality game.) 

IF you're on the fence as to when to buy.... the way I see it... now.

I am holding and will continue to hold

Some have called, texted, and emailed to ask about it.... so: I am holding and will continue to hold. 

There is some broader market uncertainty, and there should be... I think MVIS should be either largely unscathed by this or benefit from it. (Finding an issue with real growth potential in a market of shrinking issues could benefit us.)

 

The basic benchmark (for the time being) is LAZR.

Microvision's LiDAR is better than theirs, so for the LiDAR vertical we should equal or exceed their price.

12,000,000,000 / 155,000 = $77/share for Microvision. (For LIDAR)

I believe Microvision's near eye display is worth at LEAST what the LiDAR is worth.

$77 * 2 = $154 -- that's my target right now. { This isn't including the interactive laser display, display only, or other cool things MicroVision has in their bag of tricks. }

Eventually the LAZR comparison will break down - not sure what the trigger will be (yet)

Once AR gets renewed attention I believe it will effect MVIS at least as much as the attention that LiDAR has received.

This is all my opinion... I'm doing me. You do you.

Microvision in the news

 

MicroVision, Inc. Announces Progress on its Automotive Long Range Lidar A-Sample

PDF Version

REDMOND, Wash., Feb. 10, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- MicroVision, Inc. (NASDAQ: MVIS), a leader in MEMS based laser beam sensing technology, today announced that it has received necessary components and equipment to meet its April milestone of completing A-Samples of its Long Range Lidar Sensor. The Company also announced that it has started outdoor testing of key performance features on its development platform.

“We expect MicroVision’s Long Range Lidar Sensor, (LRL Sensor) which has been in development for over two years, to meet or exceed requirements established by OEMs for autonomous safety and autonomous driving features,” said Sumit Sharma, Chief Executive Officer of MicroVision.

“We expect our 1^st generation LRL Sensor to have range of at least 250 meters and the highest resolution at range of any lidar with 340 vertical lines up to 250 meters, 568 vertical lines up to 120 meters and 944 vertical lines up to 60 meters. This equates to 520 points per square degree. Our LRL Sensor will also output velocity of moving objects relative to an ego vehicle across our dynamic field of view in real-time 30 Hz sensor output. This sensor would accelerate development of Level 3 (L3) autonomous safety and Level 4 (L4) autonomous driving features that are important to potential customers and interested parties.”

“I am proud of the intense dedication of our team and the strong support from our global suppliers as we remain on track to have A-Samples ready in April. We believe our LRL Sensor offers two sustainable strategic advantages to potential customers and parties interested in strategic alternatives. We expect the capability of our LRL Sensor to meet or exceed OEM requirements, based on technology we have scaled multiple times over the last decade, as being a very strong strategic advantage. Additionally, our sensor being designed on scalable silicon wafer and laser diode technologies will be capable of achieving scale at costs below $1,000 ASP, a key price point expected for commercial success,” added Sharma.

Softbank's Son Predicts mass production of Driverless cars

 

January 29, 2021

STOCKHOLM (Reuters) – SoftBank Group Corp Chief Executive Masayoshi Son said on Friday he expects mass production of self-driving vehicles to start in two years.

While in the first year the production of units won’t be in millions, in the next several years the cost per mile in fully autonomous cars will become very cheap, Son said, speaking at a virtual meeting of the World Economic Forum.

“The AI is driving for you. The automobile will become a real supercomputer with four wheels.”

https://www.oann.com/softbanks-son-expects-mass-production-of-driverless-cars-in-two-years/

Trust your Research

 Go r/Mvis

How you're working against Big Wall Street.

CNBC Host tries to defend the hedge funds.

"There are people who are going to get hurt." (Their passionate concern for us is so touching. If they were REALLY worried about that, wouldn't they be all over funds that short 140% of the float of a stock?)

To simplify even further...

 Four Companies are all working on two things as "the next big things" Augmented Reality and Self driving vehicles.

Combined they are worth 6.921 Trillion
Together they have 340 billion in cash

If they have a bidding competition for key technology that will give them an edge against the others, how much would they be willing to pay? is 20 Billion too much?

But.... But what if Microvision gets so expensive that they won't pay it?

 Ha! -- interesting FUD, but ridiculous.

Recently I suggested 10 Billion for LiDAR and 10 Billion for Near Eye display. 20 Billion.

Let's look at the big tech companies: (Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft) They're ALL looking at self-driving cars. They're all looking at Augmented reality. They would all like to be leaders in one or both, and one company has the best specs in both. (MicroVision)

 

Apple Self Driving Car

Amazon Self Driving Car 

Google Self Driving Car 

Microsoft Self Driving Car

Apple Augmented Reality

Amazon Augmented Reality 

Google Augmented Reality 

Microsoft Augmented Reality 

 

All have market caps north of a Trillion dollars, and huge cash reserves (1.21.2021 - source, Yahoo Finance.)

Apple Market Cap: $2,270,000,000,000      -- Cash on hand: 91 Billion

Amazon Market Cap: $1,663,000,000,000    -- Cash on hand: 68 Billion

Google Market Cap: $1,300,000,000,000      -- Cash on Hand: 132 Billion

Microsoft Market Cap: $1,686,000,000,000  -- Cash on Hand: 138 Billion

They could pay way more than my "crazy" price target with jingle money and hardly notice.....

Keeping it REALLY Simple.

 Benchmark --- LAZR  -- Upstart LiDAR company.

Approximate Valuation: 10 Billion. (MicroVision's LiDAR is better)

At the same value: 10 Billion / 152 Million = $66

I consider the near eye display to be worth MORE than the LiDAR -- it certainly I think will be at least as widely used. Now that we have a value for LiDAR, I'm significantly adjusting my guess on NED -- I'm keeping my guess simple.

Market Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) is likely more important than fundamentals... And the fundamentals here are REALLY good.

Give it a comparable valuation:

$66 + $66 = $132


Review previous Value Posts

Value LiDAR

The Beats Exercise 

Near Eye Display