Very interesting comments and insights in here.
Like many other articles about the topic, there is apparently no awareness of the potential for a complete change of form factor.
At Mac Observer
Why Apple’s Next Generation TV Project is on Hold
Sometimes a graph tells a story very nicely but it leaves it to our speculation as to the underlying cause and the implications for the future. Here's the chart: "There's A Reason It Seems Like Everyone Is Always Staring At Their Smartphones."
Credit: Business Insider
To make my headline case, I need to backtrack and explore this graph with some context.
Off the cuff, this kind of share graph can be deceptive. People don't buy a new TV every year, but they're crazy about smartphones. A family may have one HDTV but a half dozen phones for home and work. TV ads can be annoying, and it requires a DVR to expunge them, sometimes without complete success—by their design. On the other hand, smartphone and tablet displays are smaller, but the kind of content consumed may be more pleasing in principle. So is it mobility that's key or the perhaps temporary inability to push bandwidth hogging ads over cellular? Customer toleration for a waste of their mobile dollars is low.
Given that, we can still move on and look at relative trends. The Print part of the graph is perfectly understandable and is a reflection of how a low-tech, under-funded industry can get into trouble quickly in this high tech era. The Radio part is also easy to understand because people can listen to their own music, a virtual radio station, with subscriptions on a smartphone. Finally, the Online graph is understandable in light of people moving away from complex desktops and towards tablets—which are more mobile but not always used in a mobile environment. For example, as second screens.
The takeaway from this graph is that there are seemingly unstoppable trends, and while we pay quite a bit of attention to the obvious trends in radio and print, the unstoppable trend on the TV industry side is often dismissed—along with cord-cutters.
Broadcast TV's Dirty Secret
The one thing I keep coming back to when I look at this chart is that no one really enjoys watching commercials when viewing conventional TV. There are now much better ways to communicate to customers. That's the most fundamental fact of our time, and yet the implications are always brushed under the rug in order to preserve the industry's cash flow.
The movement to mobile versions of movies and TV shows as well as Netflix and Amazon Primemeans that conventional Network TV shows will become more and more devalued. As a result, the networks will continue to haggle with carriers over carriage fees (and things like Dish's Ad Hopper). The whole thing is just going to break and break badly at some point because the video experience on mobile devices, especially phablets, is so much better. We don't need a DVR for our iPhone. That sounds trite, but it's actually fundamental.
Given enough time, I believe the majority of TV viewers will generally abandon ad based network TV shows, and it's not because people love watching video on a 5-inch display. For additonal insight, see "TV IS OVER: Mobile Is Demoting TV To The Status Of Newspapers In Viewers And Ad Money." Like the iPod. iTunes and music, when an industry starts to come apart at the seams, Appleloves to jump in and create a disruption. Despite the content holders' extensive contracts, deals, protections, multiple delivery modes and efforts to cover all the bases, the danger from Apple is always lurking.
Perhaps the delay in Apple's next generation TV project is because Apple is waiting for key signs that the Networks are helpless to stop what's happening to them. When it's too late for a comeback, Apple can be poised to bring to bear a new technology that the networks never had the savvy or technical expertise to develop themselves. Then, Apple could slam the door of opportunity shut for good.
Why go toe to toe when the opponent is already in self-destruct mode? Sometimes, as Sun Tzu said, lying in wait for the right moment can lead to victory.
Next page: the tech news debris for the week of December 8.
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