Thursday, January 20, 2022

An Effort to do some noise reduction.



I'm offering a timeline of recent events. I think the AR space is heating up significantly, and someone is going to make a move soon. 

If we are priced taking into account the enormous number of subscriptions that the near eye display can enable.... that's great thing. (The last presentation made noises about a subscription-like model for LiDAR)

...will the ultimate valuation of the NED vertical take into consideration the enormous potential for sales of subscriptions through these devices? My bet is yes. 

In my humble opinion, that would make it worth more than Activision. (That's how I see it, you make up your own mind.)

March 2021

  • “We believe that MR/AR products could replace all display-equipped electronics in the long term” (CultofMac)

September 2021

This is a particularly interesting month. 

October 28, 2021

  • Investor Place Interview 15:10 - 15:15 RAYBAN Mentioned 
  • Barrons: Apple could replace iPhone with Augmented Reality Devices
    This might be something to ignore, but the Barrons has good credibility and Ming-Chi Kuo has excellent credibiliy in calling Apples moves and products.

    Applescoop has him at 80+% reliability -- when dealing with a company that is as secretive as Apple, that's very impressive. (His run of good calls is MUCH longer than what is on the linked page

December 28, 2021

The development must be viewed through the prism of the ongoing talent war between Apple and Meta, formerly Facebook. According to reports so far, Meta has been poaching key engineers from Apple’s silicon, augmented reality, wearable, hardware and software divisions for the past few months.

January 6, 2022


This tells me that they're in a bigger hurry than they used to be, or things have heated up and they need to accelerate their previous delivery targets.

If you can own your own OS you can have more control. If you do it faster -- you may have to share with someone else, but there may be additional benefits to being faster. (Android has been the platform so far) 

January 10, 2022

January 18, 2022

January 25, 2022 (Thanks S2upid!)




Maybe this explains better?

Big Tech AR GAME owner:

"We can make HUGE money with subscriptions to these games."
MicroVision Representative:

"I know you want to buy our Near Eye vertical based only on the "widget" value it has.

We are going to sell it to you based on the widget value PLUS the value you will get from being able to sell future subscriptions. (and ads, and in-app purchases...)

In the case of Activision, that's $68.7 Billion for 31 games.

Steam has 50,000 games. It looks like the fruit company wants to make near eye display replace all the screens... your move.

{maybe we need to focus on ads... just imagine how intrusive Facebook could be when it highlights the business it's advertising as you walk past it.}




Facebook-Ray Ban Glasses (PR started in September 2021)

FACEBOOK RAYBAN SEPTEMBER 2021 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Monday, January 10, 2022

Recent Presentation and the Upside.

1st Things first. Whatever you buy or sell is on you. 

I know this is read by other people, but it started as a place for me to keep my notes and not lose them -- and that's largely what it still is, and I haven't been keeping as up on things as I used to.

Posts are rare now, largely because there are a lot more eyes on Microvision than there used to be and you can see a lot of discussion, references and new information on the r/mvis reddit board... 


  • The most valuable part of MicroVision is the Near Eye display. 
    • As much as the focus of the investing public is on LiDAR, don't forget this.
    •  it's big enough that I think that LiDAR could serve its primary function as a distraction.
    • Apple / Barrons -- AR device 4th Quarter 2022. (Ming-Chi Kuo rarely gets things wrong.)
      • "Apple will launch an augmented-reality headset in the fourth quarter of 2022, and could sell more than a billion of the new devices over the next 10 years, one analyst asserted in a research note Friday."
    • Replace All Screens?
  • Given 4th Quarter 2022, Near Eye Display is likely to have a breakthrough very soon.
    • Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft and other players are ALL working on Augmented Reality technology and content.
    • MicroVision has BEST near eye display solution in the world. 
    • The Near Eye Display could be sold as a whole at any time
    • Some other arrangement involving Near Eye Display could show up. (and value based on subscriptions -- would be most profitable for us. (Look at the Beats post, and the Microvision presentation to see that.)
  • Companies desperate for AR.... will be REALLY good for Microvision Stockholders       
  • The number of subscriptions that can be sold with AR devices is ENORMOUS. If we have the value proposition for near eye display changing to emulate the way the value proposition has just been modified for LiDAR as illustrated in the recent Microvision LiDAR presentation.... then.... we will do really well.


  • Microsoft has gotten HUGE increases in productivity with Hololens, and AR Games... will be gigantic.

I believe they are quiet about the near eye display on purpose and for strategic reasons.. (NDA, deal underway.... negotiating tactic.... )

As Snow tells me... the elephant in the room named Ned...

Regarding the presentation.....


The presentation was about LiDAR, and a new way to monetize it. That's a pretty good reason that they talked only about LiDAR.

  • The Microvision presentation changed no timelines...
  • The Presentation described a means of increasing revenue with LiDAR


Thursday, January 6, 2022

Monday, November 1, 2021

Augmented Reality is Real...

Facebook will be ticker MVRS


Apple Google Facebook Microsoft are all working on Augmented Reality.

MicroVision's near eye display is so good that Microsoft created their AR device around it. (Their words, not mine) and then claimed credit for creating it.

Microvision CEO says "our AR display is DONE."

Mentions that it fits in RayBans during a recent interview. (If someone can come up with the time-stamp, and use the e-mail form for the moment in the interview, I'll include it here.)

Near eye display guy who was at Microvision and moved to Microsoft, moves to Facebook... on the same day that Facebook announced a deal with Rayban

Then, Facebook, does a big presentation about AUGMENTED REALITY -- the METAVERSE



The AR vertical (In my humble opinion) is for sale.

Facebook would be wise to offer more than 10 billion, or they may lose to a higher offer from Apple, Google, or Microsoft.

(I'd vote my shares to taking the higher offer, unless maybe it's from Microsoft who claimed credit for MicroVision's hard work, Microsoft will have to do WAY better.)

Whoever buys us gets to sell AR displays to the other three for a LONG time.



Joanna Makris has a lot in common with Kelli Stavast

Friday, October 1, 2021

Tuesday, September 28, 2021

AMAZON GLOW

This sure looks like us.... 

 




Amazon announces new video calling device for kids called Amazon Glow

Amazon announced a new product aimed at kids that combines video calling with games coming from a projector. The projected graphics respond to touch.

The aim is to make video calls more engaging for children, Amazon said. Games like “Tangram Bits” allow the kids to solve puzzles on the projected surface while the parent videoconferences from a standard tablet. The device has a “privacy shutter” that turns the camera off.

Disney, Mattel, Nickelodeon, and Sesame Street characters are signed up to make games for the device. Amazon said it would open it up to some outside developers next year.

It costs $249, but won’t be released widely at first and ordering one will require an invitation. People can sign up to test it starting today and Amazon will start shipping devices in “the coming weeks.” — Kif Leswing

Sunday, September 26, 2021

"My Missing MVIS Shares"

 They aren't MY missing MVIS Shares, but the title of a Reddit thread.

MUST reading.

Reddit MVIS