Tuesday, July 20, 2021

The original investing premise for Microvision: Everyone wants a smaller device and a bigger screen


Just add some LiDAR into the mix.

The video (I'm about 4 minutes in so far, is a great explanation of AR, and how MicroVision can create more screen real estate.)

AUGMENTED reality Near Eye Displays are worth at least what LiDAR will be worth.

I think a LOT more. 

We are likely in my opinion to get more value in the near term from LiDAR.

What's it worth? 

My recent price target was Minimum of LAZR X 2 Market cap. 

I stand by all my valuation estimates still and I'm happily holding.


 Four Companies are all working on two things as "the next big things" Augmented Reality and Self driving vehicles.

Combined they are worth 6.921 Trillion
Together they have 340 billion in cash

If they have a bidding competition for key technology that will give them an edge against the others, how much would they be willing to pay? 

Is 20 Billion too much? (That's about $130/share)

Friday, June 11, 2021

Ferrari has appointed electronics pioneer Benedetto Vigna as its new chief executive



Ferrari has appointed electronics pioneer Benedetto Vigna as chief executive as the company gears up for the age of electric vehicles.

Vigna will join Ferrari on Sept. 1 from semiconductor firm STMicroelectronics, where he is head of its sensors group.

The Italian sportscar maker announced the appointment in a statement Wednesday. Former CEO Louis Camilleri stepped down for personal reasons in December after a reported battle with Covid-19.

Ferrari said Vigna has experience working for some of the world’s leading technology companies. But the 52-year-old Italian’s appointment has come as a surprise to many given he has not previously worked for an automotive company or a luxury brand.


Tuesday, April 6, 2021

Explained by a sock

 This is good enough (at minute 6) That it's going on.

Thanks for the heads up, OmerJ


Cool... this blog gets a mention.

Friday, April 2, 2021

Whats the difference between Niantic and IVAS?

What's 1,000,000,000 / 120,000?

According to my calculations the Niantic heads up we got last week is 8,333 times better than the IVAS news.

There have been more than a billion downloads of Pokemon Go, and the IVAS go-ahead is for 120,000 units.

Pokemon Go is still going strong -- that's Niantic.

Grayson is pretty on top of things.


If you haven't done so, watch this video that he posted last year comparing Digilens to MicroVision. (If it walks like a duck... you know the saying.) HERE


Don't get me wrong, the IVAS news is FANTASTIC -- it proves the value, proves it works, proves that it's tough enough to fit Military Standards (Look HERE) The dual news flash... wow. 

But the 120,000 units and the volume from that contract isn't the big news.

Volume of production would be the big news. Niantic is that. (Not yet confirmed, I know, but I'm confident it's right.... whether or not you are confident is up to you.)

Pokemon Go information from Business of APPS 

The game launched in July 2016, and became not just a smash hit game, but a global cultural phenomenon; in the summer of 2016, it seemed as if there was no getting away from Pokémon GO. There was even a Pokémon GO Frappuccino! How many games get a drink named after them at Starbucks? How many games inspire 200,000 Spotify playlists?

Pokémon GO Overview

LaunchedJuly 2016
Parent companyNiantic
HQSan Francisco, California
Key peopleTatsuo Nomura (Pokémon GO director), John Hanke (Niantic CEO)

Key Pokémon GO User Statistics

Cumulative Pokémon GO downloads
September 2016500 million
February 2017650 million
July 2017750 million
May 2018800 million
March 20191 billion

If you don't believe in Pokemon, you don't need to. Of course they wouldn't build single-purpose eyewear. You just need to believe in "walking around games" and Niantic is great at it, and so is UNREAL -- who builds their sofware engine for everyone.

Niantic VS IVAS


You can change the static variables, but the share float doesn't change often, the tax rate is based on Large Tech companies, MicroVision expenditures are a guess -- actually all of this is a guess, but it is a way for you to play with some of the numbers.

When I test IVAS: (My numbers - you do your numbers.)
Augmented Reality Headsets Produced = 120000
How much will MVIS profit from each?  = 1000
% of AR headsets you think will use it? 100
PE when this happens? = 80

When I test Niantic - the consumer market: (My numbers - you do your numbers)
Augmented Reality headsets produced:     250000000 (250 Million)
How much will MVIS profit from each:   10
% of AR headsets you think will use it:     80
PE when this happens:                                80

Use your own numbers, and remember that buyouts happen with substantially different numbers. Calculating Buyout using EBITDA (To set the buyout number here, I'd guess at increases in sales, average the next five years set expenditures and tax rate to zero, and use 5-15 as the PE. -- remember this is a single vertical.)

(These numbers are without commas, because commas will make the calculator break. Javascript is a pain in the ass.)

What's YOUR price target?
(Erase the "*" in the green space and pick your number.)
My baseline is $5 ea / 90% of AR Headsets/ PE of 80

How much will MicroVison will profit from each AR Set?
What % of AR Headsets sold do you think will use it?
What do you think the PE of the stock will be when this happens?

Microvision Shares Outstanding { Static }
Augmented Reality Headsets produced (annual)
Total Microvision expenditures annual { Static }
Effective Tax Rate (%)  { Static }

* * * * * * * * *
Number of AR headsets with MVIS you expect
Total Earnings Before Taxes you expect
Microvision Earnings After Taxes
Microvision Net Earnings Per Share
Microvision Price Per Share that you expect

Thursday, March 4, 2021

Augmented Reality (Mixed Reality) Will be bigger than LiDAR

....as is really popular to say lately, "Do your own Due Diligence... this is only my own opinion. -- which is true."

Mixed reality is going to replace the screen on your smartphone... and your PC screen.

Pay Close attention to this. Microsoft also going consumer.

And... like LiDAR, EVERY MAJOR Tech company is ALSO going full steam ahead into Augmented reality, and MicroVisions NEAR EYE DISPLAY is the best.

Here is the proof that MicroVision is IN Hololens.

It's also here, I started near the spot in the video. If you search that weird abomination prototype, you will see Microvision's logo (3 times?)

How popular will this be as a consumer product? As popular as Pokemon Go in Taiwan (The first mainstream augmented reality game.) 

IF you're on the fence as to when to buy.... the way I see it... now.

Tuesday, February 16, 2021

I am holding and will continue to hold

Some have called, texted, and emailed to ask about it.... so: I am holding and will continue to hold. 

There is some broader market uncertainty, and there should be... I think MVIS should be either largely unscathed by this or benefit from it. (Finding an issue with real growth potential in a market of shrinking issues could benefit us.)


The basic benchmark (for the time being) is LAZR.

Microvision's LiDAR is better than theirs, so for the LiDAR vertical we should equal or exceed their price.

12,000,000,000 / 155,000 = $77/share for Microvision. (For LIDAR)

I believe Microvision's near eye display is worth at LEAST what the LiDAR is worth.

$77 * 2 = $154 -- that's my target right now. { This isn't including the interactive laser display, display only, or other cool things MicroVision has in their bag of tricks. }

Eventually the LAZR comparison will break down - not sure what the trigger will be (yet)

Once AR gets renewed attention I believe it will effect MVIS at least as much as the attention that LiDAR has received.

This is all my opinion... I'm doing me. You do you.

Wednesday, February 10, 2021

Microvision in the news


MicroVision, Inc. Announces Progress on its Automotive Long Range Lidar A-Sample

REDMOND, Wash., Feb. 10, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- MicroVision, Inc. (NASDAQ: MVIS), a leader in MEMS based laser beam sensing technology, today announced that it has received necessary components and equipment to meet its April milestone of completing A-Samples of its Long Range Lidar Sensor. The Company also announced that it has started outdoor testing of key performance features on its development platform.

“We expect MicroVision’s Long Range Lidar Sensor, (LRL Sensor) which has been in development for over two years, to meet or exceed requirements established by OEMs for autonomous safety and autonomous driving features,” said Sumit Sharma, Chief Executive Officer of MicroVision.

“We expect our 1st generation LRL Sensor to have range of at least 250 meters and the highest resolution at range of any lidar with 340 vertical lines up to 250 meters, 568 vertical lines up to 120 meters and 944 vertical lines up to 60 meters. This equates to 520 points per square degree. Our LRL Sensor will also output velocity of moving objects relative to an ego vehicle across our dynamic field of view in real-time 30 Hz sensor output. This sensor would accelerate development of Level 3 (L3) autonomous safety and Level 4 (L4) autonomous driving features that are important to potential customers and interested parties.”

“I am proud of the intense dedication of our team and the strong support from our global suppliers as we remain on track to have A-Samples ready in April. We believe our LRL Sensor offers two sustainable strategic advantages to potential customers and parties interested in strategic alternatives. We expect the capability of our LRL Sensor to meet or exceed OEM requirements, based on technology we have scaled multiple times over the last decade, as being a very strong strategic advantage. Additionally, our sensor being designed on scalable silicon wafer and laser diode technologies will be capable of achieving scale at costs below $1,000 ASP, a key price point expected for commercial success,” added Sharma.

Sunday, January 31, 2021

Softbank's Son Predicts mass production of Driverless cars


January 29, 2021

STOCKHOLM (Reuters) – SoftBank Group Corp Chief Executive Masayoshi Son said on Friday he expects mass production of self-driving vehicles to start in two years.

While in the first year the production of units won’t be in millions, in the next several years the cost per mile in fully autonomous cars will become very cheap, Son said, speaking at a virtual meeting of the World Economic Forum.

“The AI is driving for you. The automobile will become a real supercomputer with four wheels.”


Friday, January 29, 2021

Trust your Research

 Go r/Mvis

How you're working against Big Wall Street.

CNBC Host tries to defend the hedge funds.

"There are people who are going to get hurt." (Their passionate concern for us is so touching. If they were REALLY worried about that, wouldn't they be all over funds that short 140% of the float of a stock?)

Friday, January 22, 2021

To simplify even further...

 Four Companies are all working on two things as "the next big things" Augmented Reality and Self driving vehicles.

Combined they are worth 6.921 Trillion
Together they have 340 billion in cash

If they have a bidding competition for key technology that will give them an edge against the others, how much would they be willing to pay? is 20 Billion too much?