I'm offering a timeline of recent events. I think the AR space is heating up significantly, and someone is going to make a move soon.
If we are priced taking into account the enormous number of subscriptions that the near eye display can enable.... that's great thing. (The last presentation made noises about a subscription-like model for LiDAR)
...will the ultimate valuation of the NED vertical take into consideration the enormous potential for sales of subscriptions through these devices? My bet is yes.
In my humble opinion, that would make it worth more than Activision. (That's how I see it, you make up your own mind.)
March 2021
“We believe that MR/AR products could replace all display-equipped electronics in the long term” (CultofMac)
September 2021
Josh Miller -- From Microsoft (and before that Microvision) Becomes director of Display Design at META/Facebook LinkedIn
FACEBOOK/META does Rayban (see list of links below.)
Applescoop has him at 80+% reliability -- when dealing with a company that is as secretive as Apple, that's very impressive. (His run of good calls is MUCH longer than what is on the linked page
The development must be viewed through the prism of the ongoing talent war between Apple and Meta, formerly Facebook. According to reports so far, Meta has been poaching key engineers from Apple’s silicon, augmented reality, wearable, hardware and software divisions for the past few months.
This tells me that they're in a bigger hurry than they used to be, or things have heated up and they need to accelerate their previous delivery targets.
If you can own your own OS you can have more control. If you do it faster -- you may have to share with someone else, but there may be additional benefits to being faster. (Android has been the platform so far)
"We can make HUGE money with subscriptions to these games." MicroVision Representative:
"I know you want to buy our Near Eye vertical based only on the "widget" value it has.
We are going to sell it to you based on the widget value PLUS the value you will get from being able to sell future subscriptions. (and ads, and in-app purchases...)
In the case of Activision, that's $68.7 Billion for 31 games.
Steam has 50,000 games. It looks like the fruit company wants to make near eye display replace all the screens... your move.
{maybe we need to focus on ads... just imagine how intrusive Facebook could be when it highlights the business it's advertising as you walk past it.}
Facebook-Ray Ban Glasses (PR started in September 2021)
1st Things first. Whatever you buy or sell is on you.
I know this is read by other people, but it started as a place for me to keep my notes and not lose them -- and that's largely what it still is, and I haven't been keeping as up on things as I used to.
Posts are rare now, largely because there are a lot more eyes on Microvision than there used to be and you can see a lot of discussion, references and new information on the r/mvis reddit board...
The most valuable part of MicroVision is the Near Eye display.
As much as the focus of the investing public is on LiDAR, don't forget this.
it's big enough that I think that LiDAR could serve its primary function as a distraction.
Apple / Barrons -- AR device 4th Quarter 2022. (Ming-Chi Kuo rarely gets things wrong.)
"Apple will launch an augmented-reality headset in the fourth quarter of 2022, and could sell more than a billion of the new devices over the next 10 years, one analyst asserted in a research note Friday."
The number of subscriptions that can be sold with AR devices is ENORMOUS. If we have the value proposition for near eye display changing to emulate the way the value proposition has just been modified for LiDAR as illustrated in the recent Microvision LiDAR presentation.... then.... we will do really well.
Microsoft has gotten HUGE increases in productivity with Hololens, and AR Games... will be gigantic.
Microvision stock is heavily manipulated.
(Trading experts tell me it's about 60% manipulated down)
MicroVision's near eye display is so good that Microsoft created their AR device around it. (Their words, not mine) and then claimed credit for creating it.
Microvision CEO says "our AR display is DONE."
Mentions that it fits in RayBans during a recent interview. (If someone can come up with the time-stamp, and use the e-mail form for the moment in the interview, I'll include it here.)
The AR vertical (In my humble opinion) is for sale.
Facebook would be wise to offer more than 10 billion, or they may lose to a higher offer from Apple, Google, or Microsoft.
(I'd vote my shares to taking the higher offer, unless maybe it's from Microsoft who claimed credit for MicroVision's hard work, Microsoft will have to do WAY better.)
Whoever buys us gets to sell AR displays to the other three for a LONG time.
Joanna Makris has a lot in common with Kelli Stavast
Some have called, texted, and emailed to ask about it.... so: I am holding and will continue to hold.
There is some broader market uncertainty, and there should be... I think MVIS should be either largely unscathed by this or benefit from it. (Finding an issue with real growth potential in a market of shrinking issues could benefit us.)
The basic benchmark (for the time being) is LAZR.
Microvision's LiDAR is better than theirs, so for the LiDAR vertical we should equal or exceed their price.
12,000,000,000 / 155,000 = $77/share for Microvision. (For LIDAR)
I believe Microvision's near eye display is worth at LEAST what the LiDAR is worth.
$77 * 2 = $154 -- that's my target right now. { This isn't including the interactive laser display, display only, or other cool things MicroVision has in their bag of tricks. }
Eventually the LAZR comparison will break down - not sure what the trigger will be (yet)
Once AR gets renewed attention I believe it will effect MVIS at least as much as the attention that LiDAR has received.
This is all my opinion... I'm doing me. You do you.
Four Companies are all working on two things as "the next big things" Augmented Reality and Self driving vehicles.
Combined they are worth 6.921 Trillion Together they have 340 billion in cash
If they have a bidding competition for key technology that will give them an edge against the others, how much would they be willing to pay? is 20 Billion too much?
Recently I suggested 10 Billion for LiDAR and 10 Billion for Near Eye display. 20 Billion.
Let's look at the big tech companies: (Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft) They're ALL looking at self-driving cars. They're all looking at Augmented reality. They would all like to be leaders in one or both, and one company has the best specs in both. (MicroVision)
All have market caps north of a Trillion dollars, and huge cash reserves (1.21.2021 - source, Yahoo Finance.)
Apple Market Cap: $2,270,000,000,000 -- Cash on hand: 91 Billion
Amazon Market Cap: $1,663,000,000,000 -- Cash on hand: 68 Billion
Google Market Cap: $1,300,000,000,000 -- Cash on Hand: 132 Billion
Microsoft Market Cap: $1,686,000,000,000 -- Cash on Hand: 138 Billion They could pay way more than my "crazy" price target with jingle money and hardly notice.....
The Value of MicroVision to it's share holders is going to be a portion of the total value it provides to people.... what will that be?
The Value of Use..
"I read a study that measured the efficiency of locomotion for various
species on the planet. The condor used the least energy to move a
kilometer. Humans came in with a rather unimpressive showing about a
third of the way down the list....That didn't look so good, but then
someone at Scientific American had the insight to test the efficiency of
locomotion for a man on a bicycle and a man on a bicycle blew the
condor away. That's what a computer is to me: the computer is the most
remarkable tool that we've ever come up with. It's the equivalent of a
bicycle for our minds."
--- Steve Jobs
The Near Eye display will allow us to use that bicycle for our minds everywhere we go, everywhere we are, and with everything we do. Increasing efficiency, improving productivity. Allowing creativity to be harnessed much more easily, errors to be found and corrected earlier.
The benefits of a PC will no longer limited to a desktop, laptop, or something we have to sit down and focus on. It could be there all the while we are doing.
Kipman wasn't lying when he said they built that new game-changing device around the display that they... er... (MICROVISION) invented... While I think they're scoundrels for claiming credit for the display it is a testament to how amazing it is.
Taqtile's motto is "Everyone is an expert." That illustrates the value very well.
My visit to Taqtile:
making people who don't know act as though they know. Giving them a knowledge advantage immediately. (You can walk into a facility and perform processes recorded by an expert. You don't have to be the expert to do it.) Particularly important is Knowledge Capture
Will it GAME? Do not forget Pokemon Go. Games are HUGE, and I think the effort to come up with games for this will be huge... do not forget that there was a special introduction of a gaming company at one of the Hololens presentations.
Gaming? Microsoft bought Minecraft, has it for Hololens... and it's really popular.
How many companies to make AR devices using MicroVision's display?
Well, we know Microsoft, Apple, Google, Magic Leap, Facebook, and probably the big computer makers (Dell, Lenovo, Sony, Acer, etc.) will all want in on Augmented Reality.
(Remember, Kipman said "anyone can make their own hololens" and Trimble IS making their own Hololens.)
Apple is doing it --- there are enough patents and leaks to show this. Some of what they are doing is in the open with their "AR Kit."
Google Had "Glass"
Magic Leap is AR (associated with Google)
I'm nearly certain that Hololens1 and Magic Leap used the same display.
Facebook has AR/VR -- And also has a substantial facility right up the road from MicroVision HQ. It is unmarked and apparently. secret. (There is nothing on the outside that says "Facebook," nothing on any vehicle that brags about Facebook, no people wearing anything labeled with it can be seen outside. -- I took a picture of the front door a couple of years ago, and my phone did ask me if I wanted to tag the picture I took at Oculus.
Behind it is another facility that is part of Microsoft, and there is a shuttle running between the two campuses.
They will all need the best near-eye display they can get. There is nothing better yet on the horizon that looks like it will be serviceable. When that appears, it may still be years before it's usable and possible to manufacture in quantity.
A side-note here. We may look at a device and think that it looks simple -- the good things are. MicroVision's core tech, which is essentially a vibrating mirror, looks really simple. Getting it to work as it has to -- and then also assembling the components is anything but simple. Making the sub-components-- the mirror, the magnets, etc., to the precision required is not a simple process. Developing a reliable way to do this in quantity had to be extraordinarily difficult and time consuming. This has made it difficult in the past for holders of MicroVision -- because we were waiting, and it seemed like nothing was happening. This is now a hurdle that MicroVision has cleared. Any potential competing technology has yet to clear this hurdle, and it's a significant one. The distance between prototype and released product is huge.
What are the "killer" applications?
An important question with any new technology. (If you have the first fax machine -- it's cool but useless... there has to be something to DO with it.)
This should not be a problem with AR.
Personal computers were around prior to the early 1980's. They were basically toys, things to tinker with, until the killer app, arrived.
In marketing terminology, a killer application (commonly shortened to killer app) is any computer program or software that is so necessary or desirable that it proves the core value of some larger technology, such as computer hardware, a video game console, software, a programming language, a software platform, or an operating system.[1]In other words, consumers would buy the (usually expensive) hardware
just to run that application. A killer app can substantially increase
sales of the platform on which it runs.[2][3]
For the PC the killer application was the spreadsheet. It took what could be an astonishingly tedious task (prone to errors) and made it happen in a twinkle. (No time to explain it in detail here, but trust me and check here: Visicalc BBC)
After the arrival of the spreadsheet, the PC went crazy.
The killer app for Hololens?
There are several already. Trimble has one - Overlay of design in the physical world. This increases efficiency in construction hugely and doesn't take a lot of imagination to see how it would. It will save a lot of time and therefore a lot of money. Problems will become apparent more quickly, be solved sooner, and best -- they'll be solved while they're potential problems instead of real ones.
"Benefits every industry that deals with 3D spatial data." Nearly everything we deal with is "3D." -- so the appeal is broad.
Knowledge Capture. This can be used already, and it's huge. You don't need to "train" someone for a job, you have your smartest person do it.... and those who come after can copy. (Everyone's an expert.)
What I am looking forward to most, is being able to learn languages.
An endlessly patient teacher that scans the environment and labels everything in the target language? Sign me up.
How big will the use of Augmented Reality Be?
Microsoft itself said that Hololens would be bigger than the PC.
Microsoft's
Stock was worth about $0.09 in 1986; 10 years later in 1996 it was
worth $9.00 (A 9,900% Gain.) If we consider Microsoft until the
introduction of the X-Box (2001) You get about $30/share (A 33,000%
Gain) -- That's perspective on "how big can augmented reality be."
The
PC is huge, because it's nearly ubiquitous. It's everywhere. Hololens
will be more everywhere, because it can be 'more everywhere' -- not
anchored to a desk, table or lap. If you want to use a PC you have to
look away from whatever else might be around and focus on the PC... not
so with hololens.
In 1976 the number of PCS being used
in the US was effectively zero, Apple showed up then and sold some. Then
Radio Shack hat the TSR-80 --- by the year 2000 PCs were literally
everywhere. They continue to get better.
How much will they earn?
(and how much will someone pay for those earnings?)
Any answer to this question is guesswork. The value will be significant, because the value it brings to the user will be significant.
There is no good way to come up with this number... {I readily admit that this is guesswork. You are reading guesses. Don't make your decisions based on my guesswork, base your decisions on your own guesswork. If you have a solid critique or method of guessing that you think is better than mine, I'd be happy to read, consider and possibly post it too.... if we get enough people working on it, we might actually arrive at a good guess.
To do this, I'm going to plop some possibly numbers into the Personal Computer "killer application" and see where the numbers lead.
I like to come up with a couple of frameworks of thinking (always willing to throw an unworkable framework out) and sort of come up with a range. (And after wrestling with this for quite some time, have decided to rely on the fairly basic model below. --- it could be wildly off... I admit that, but it involves the least guessing.)
Method 1 (I claim no accuracy, this is a framework.)
$70 Billion Euros for the next four years --- my SWAG then is $100 billion in the next FIVE years, which is my preferred time horizon. (since a euro is 1.1 USD I'll consider them equivalent.)
Assume that a display would account for about 10% of the price of the computer. ($900 computer, $900 software + $200 for a monitor)
Use 10% of the total AR market for display
Use 1/2 of the 10% as the MicroVision share.
$100 Billion * .1 =$10 Billion *.5 = $5Billion.
Using this method my SWAG(scientific wild-ass guess) is $5Billion (Divide into the 140 million shares = $35/share (To be conservative, cut it in half again) = $17/share (This vertical)
After spending some time thinking about it, that's the only guess I'm willing to make here... it's taking an "accepted number" and extrapolating. Trying to anticipate the market with all its variables is a daunting task, and probably not worth the effort, because EACH stage is guess work. I could be off by miles already -- but I think the guess is reasonable and the theory sound.
Some of the basis I'm using came from the video below. (It says $70 Billion in the next four years)
Errors happen all the time with data... they happen even more with speculative future-anticipating (I know this) Read this for some background: I'm skeptical of Data
Microsoft is welcome to rebut this and I'll happily post it.
There is a reason that they would lie about it: That is that the value of it is extraordinary and they WANT to get credit for it.
In their own words they built Hololens AROUND the display.
I do not think that it was to save money on purchasing the company. The current market cap of the company is pocket change for a company the size of Microsoft. I'm pretty sure they want credit.
The shareholders who diligently researched this did it right. They should have been rewarded for their diligence in figuring this out back in February of 2019 (MicroVision Reddit Board)
If they think they can buy MicroVision on the cheap they'll get a no-votes from me.
There are a number of other companies eager to get into Augmented Reality, and this display is going to enable it in many places. There is no other AR display that is even close.
I saw Meta right before I saw MicroVision's Nomad. Nomad was MUCH better than Meta at the time, and was 20 years older.
Demand the VALUE of this from whoever buys this company.... it's very high.
Check out the beginning of Microsoft's Announcement of Hololens 2. If you were really following Microvision at this point, Feb of 2019, you SAW Microvision's tech at this point, but Microsoft claimed it.
Microsoft has made great strides in AR to be sure. I think it is is going to be a tool that improves things in astonishing ways. It will also be an amazing new toy.
But, given the way Microsoft has treated Microvision. I'm holding out for the Apple AR glasses. I'm quite confident it will use the same display.
They built this device around Microvision's display and they NEED it to produce this device.
If my read on the timing is correct this is the APRIL 2017 Contract, which also states that Microvision can sell it to whomever they want after the end of development. I expect that when the company is sold, this will be included in any buyer's abilities as well. Any startup who had developed a similar display, with a similar contract would have a market cap in multiple billions of dollars -- and Microvision is NOT a one-trick pony. (My opinion.... do your own due diligence, and your own homework.)
....and it will get people out and about. This kind of thing will be enormously popular, far beyond enterprise use. ...and there are a lot of relationships in this business... and they make for an interesting and tangled web; some of it purposeful, some incidental.
Now this was apparently made by an independent developer, but there are LOTS of independent developers working on stuff that will be this cool.Ian Charnas
With six Mario Kart games released on home consoles, three on portable handheld consoles, four arcade games co-developed with Namco and one for mobile phones, the Mario Kart series includes a total of fourteen entries. The latest game in the main series, Mario Kart Tour, was released on iOS and Android in September 2019. The series has sold over 100 million copies worldwide to date.
"
If you like Breadcrumbs, this is also a Nintendo Product, and Slade Gorton on the MVIS board has a relationship with Nintendo... He got Nintendo involved with the Seattle Mariners.... and Nintendo and Microsoft know each other...
"By now, the main story has been well documented: Mariners owner Jeff
Smulyan putting the team up for sale in 1991, and Senator Slade Gorton
saving the day, approaching Nintendo, which offered to buy the team -
then organizing a group of local investors to join as partners."
The video is from Fox news.... I've had trouble getting it to play.
****
****
Most of the biggest names in Big Tech are racing to create smart
glasses that we wear everywhere and that may replace our phones.
Microsoft,
Amazon, Google, Snap, Facebook Apple, Magic Leap and others are all
working on some form of smart glasses or headset that will change how we
view the world around us. Instead of pulling a phone out of our pockets
to talk to people or interact with apps, we may do these things simply
by speaking to, and looking through, a set of glasses.
There’s
a race to be the first to make a set of glasses that everyone will
wear, which means they have to be fashionable and sleek enough to wear
all day and everywhere you go. Advocates of the technology hope that
you’ll one day be able to replace every screen in your life with just
one pair of smart glasses.
I've been gone a lot and extremely focused on some training. Arrived home yesterday just as the conference call was getting started.
This company will be the source of key components in multiple emerging technologies.
I said "I told you you'd hear numbers like that eventually." a number of times yesterday.
Most of the delay is probably from trade adjustments with China. Short term disruptive, long term, this should be a very positive development. "I can say that certainly looks like our logo." Is one of the all time best lines in any conference call ever. Hololens Shipping Conference Call Transcript
CC Links including recording Production unit shipments for our April 2017 contract customer began in the third quarter and continue to proceed smoothly, meeting our customers production schedule. Our activities related to our Interactive Display solutions resulted in a major step forward during the past few months as customer due diligence work has now led to negotiations for component purchase agreement that we aim to complete this quarter fora targeted launch of our interactive display module in 2020.
As customer products come to market, we expect our company revenues could reach $100 million over a 12-month period, following product launches that we expect to start in the second half of 2020Let's move on to our automotive LiDAR product. The markets for advanced driver assistance systems is experiencing high growth that we expect to accelerate with the need for safety features and new regulations targeted to come into effect in the next 3 to 4 years.
More Later.... Michael Fawzy Malouf - Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC, Research Division - Partner, Senior Research Analyst & Head of Boston Team
Yes. That's helpful. I didn't realize if this was specifically for Interactive Display only. So that's helpful.And then if I could just ask 1 more question. Just recently, Alex Kipman, who has been really the guru behind the HoloLens 2 did this whole presentation about a month ago, talking about the HoloLens 2 and in that he showed a slide actually of the prototype of the device and its clearlyseen on their the MicroVision logo on the PCB Board. So I'm just kind of curious, is that sort of a public validation that you're on the HoloLens 2? And I would love to get a little bit of comments, specifically, tied to that presentation that Alex gave?
Perry M. Mulligan - MicroVision, Inc. - CEO & Director
Yes. So just that we're on the same page, Mike, I believe that this is -- you're referencing the presentation that Alex made on October 3rd at the ETHGlobal Lecture Series in Zurich? Michael Fawzy Malouf - Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC, Research Division - Partner, Senior Research Analyst & Head of Boston Team That's right. In fact, it was titled the HoloLens 2 - Unpacked. Perry M. Mulligan - MicroVision, Inc. - CEO & DirectorRight. So he called -- he referenced some of the pictures I think the HoloLens 2 model. And in that picture, it looks like you can see the MicroVisionlogo on some of those components.We can confirm that it appears to be our logo. And beyond that, I can't make any other comment.
I've been hitting the brain-trust hard, getting opinions from various other people and discussing mine -- a few things that have stuck out from the last few days.... all my own (educated?) opinion....
CLASS 1 I suspect that the class 1 reversion mentioned in the CC is part of a multi-level situation -- not all of the parts are related to each other
A) The issue with China is significant. With relative rapidity a large number of countries decided that they were transferring manufacturing OUT of China. (Mentioned here) -- and this was mentioned during the ASM that some issues with China could pop up and cause problems. This certainly would have the potential of throwing all production into chaos and This could cause significant disruptions around multiple supply chains.
This could rearrange manufacturing priorities.
I don't know, we don't know, probably no one knows the extent of the rearrangement that will be required because of this.
Suddenly Foxconn's weird behavior in Wisconsin makes sense... they may have been expecting that something was up and wanted to have a foothold somewhere in the US, just in case
B) It is my impression based on previous PicoP projector releases that Class 2 & 3 laser products needed individual approvals for many different countries they went to. This could be a significant impediment to rapid adoption of the tech across national boundaries
C) there is some stated improvement in the projector brightness with Class 1 lasers.... (related to the April 2017 contract partner?) There is no such thing as a projector that it's safe or comfortable to look into... I do not think that class1/class3 is a long-term impediment. But what is most important to me is that they can get the most customers this way. (I'm going to watch for it in portable gaming... because this is easy to do in a dimly lit room and is a HUGE market.) Xbox Scarlett / Sony - Xbox Partnership
Hololens (Augmented Reality) This has ALWAYS been a CLASS 1 Laser product!! (allegedly and possibly, in all likelihood using Microvision's near-eye display -- Laser Mems Display.) I visited the Microsoft Store near the University Of Washington in Seattle this week. I asked to see the Hololens 2. They didn't have one in the store, but they connected me with someone who attended the build conference and had the "opportunity" to try it. "Well, how was it??" I asked. "I didn't get to try it" she replied. "What?" "The line was 200 people long to try it. I didn't have time -- people that had tried it absolutely raved about it." she said. Combine that with the results from Airbus and NASA... I think Microsoft has a problem... a really good one to have. The results with this thing are so fantastic that they're not going to be able to keep up.
If you approach a company with a tool that can improve their efficiency by 10-15% reliably, they're going to be really happy. 97% better? 80% better.... that is a stunning, mind-bending improvement. I'm extremely confident that this will be a run-away success. NASA , Airbus Given patent flow, I think the next company out the gate is Apple. (remember, Microvision can sell this to whoever they want to once the development is done)
Also tried these... not great next to Hololens, and we're pretty sure --- same field of view as an iPad mini held at arms length.
Business Insider 2020 Catadioptric? Basically it's bouncing a projection off something else.... which is what any AR system will have to do.
So, this word doesn't do anything to necessarily include or exclude MVIS's display, but I think Apple will want the best, and I'm quite sure that what Microvision has developed outclasses anything else out there.
