An Effort to do some noise reduction.

I'm offering a timeline of recent events. I think the AR space is heating up significantly, and someone is going to make a move soon. 

If we are priced taking into account the enormous number of subscriptions that the near eye display can enable.... that's great thing. (The last presentation made noises about a subscription-like model for LiDAR)

...will the ultimate valuation of the NED vertical take into consideration the enormous potential for sales of subscriptions through these devices? My bet is yes. 

In my humble opinion, that would make it worth more than Activision. (That's how I see it, you make up your own mind.)

March 2021

• “We believe that MR/AR products could replace all display-equipped electronics in the long term” (CultofMac)

September 2021

• Josh Miller -- From Microsoft (and before that Microvision) Becomes director of Display Design at META/Facebook 
  LinkedIn
• FACEBOOK/META does Rayban (see list of links below.)
• Microsoft to buy back 60 Billion in shares

This is a particularly interesting month. 

October 28, 2021

• Investor Place Interview 15:10 - 15:15 RAYBAN Mentioned 

• Barrons: Apple could replace iPhone with Augmented Reality Devices
  This might be something to ignore, but the Barrons has good credibility and Ming-Chi Kuo has excellent credibiliy in calling Apples moves and products.
  
  Applescoop has him at 80+% reliability -- when dealing with a company that is as secretive as Apple, that's very impressive. (His run of good calls is MUCH longer than what is on the linked page

December 28, 2021

• Facebook Poaching Engineers from Apple (MSN)
• Apple Insider: Apple paying $180,000 bonuses to prevent engineers from defecting.
• IDB Apple-Meta Poaching War

The development must be viewed through the prism of the ongoing talent war between Apple and Meta, formerly Facebook. According to reports so far, Meta has been poaching key engineers from Apple’s silicon, augmented reality, wearable, hardware and software divisions for the past few months.

January 6, 2022

• Facebook Giving up on AR/VR OS (Fudzilla)
• The VERGE Facebook Canceling XROS (Announced)    

This tells me that they're in a bigger hurry than they used to be, or things have heated up and they need to accelerate their previous delivery targets.

If you can own your own OS you can have more control. If you do it faster -- you may have to share with someone else, but there may be additional benefits to being faster. (Android has been the platform so far) 

January 10, 2022

• Facebook Poaching MSFT AR engineers (Wall Street Journal)

January 18, 2022

• Microsoft to buy Activision $67 Billion

January 25, 2022 (Thanks S2upid!)

SPIE AR/VR Special Event

---

Maybe this explains better?

Big Tech AR GAME owner:

"We can make HUGE money with subscriptions to these games."
MicroVision Representative:

"I know you want to buy our Near Eye vertical based only on the "widget" value it has.

We are going to sell it to you based on the widget value PLUS the value you will get from being able to sell future subscriptions. (and ads, and in-app purchases...)

In the case of Activision, that's $68.7 Billion for 31 games.

Steam has 50,000 games. It looks like the fruit company wants to make near eye display replace all the screens... your move.

{maybe we need to focus on ads... just imagine how intrusive Facebook could be when it highlights the business it's advertising as you walk past it.}

---

Facebook-Ray Ban Glasses (PR started in September 2021)

FACEBOOK RAYBAN SEPTEMBER 2021 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_uOFWU4o3tw

 

https://www.engadget.com/facebook-ray-ban-stories-smart-glasses-ar-160006477.html

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/09/facebook-ray-ban-stories-smart-glasses-review.html 

 

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/techtank/2021/09/21/seeing-past-the-cool-facebooks-new-smart-glasses/

 

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/sep/15/techscape-smart-glasses-facebook

 

https://news.yahoo.com/facebook-ray-ban-stories-review-114325879.html

 

https://time.com/6096715/facebook-ray-ban-smart-glasses/

 

https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2021/09/09/ray-ban-stories-zuckerberg-glasses-orig.cnn-business 9/9/2021

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/facebook-releases-ray-ban-smart-glasses-rcna1951

 

https://www.accessnow.org/facebook-ray-ban-stories-smart-glasses-privacy-review/

 

https://techcrunch.com/2021/09/09/facebooks-first-smart-glasses-make-the-case-for-face-worn-wearables/

 

https://www.macrumors.com/2021/09/09/facebook-ray-ban-stories-smart-glasses/

 

https://www.zdnet.com/article/facebookray-ban-stories-smartglasses-everything-you-need-to-know/

 

https://mashable.com/review/facebook-rayban-stories-smart-glasses-review

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray-Ban_Stories

Recent Presentation and the Upside.

1st Things first. Whatever you buy or sell is on you. 

I know this is read by other people, but it started as a place for me to keep my notes and not lose them -- and that's largely what it still is, and I haven't been keeping as up on things as I used to.

Posts are rare now, largely because there are a lot more eyes on Microvision than there used to be and you can see a lot of discussion, references and new information on the r/mvis reddit board... 

---

• The most valuable part of MicroVision is the Near Eye display. 
• As much as the focus of the investing public is on LiDAR, don't forget this.
•  it's big enough that I think that LiDAR could serve its primary function as a distraction.
• Apple / Barrons -- AR device 4th Quarter 2022. (Ming-Chi Kuo rarely gets things wrong.)
• "Apple will launch an augmented-reality headset in the fourth quarter of 2022, and could sell more than a billion of the new devices over the next 10 years, one analyst asserted in a research note Friday."
• Replace All Screens?
• Given 4th Quarter 2022, Near Eye Display is likely to have a breakthrough very soon.
• Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft and other players are ALL working on Augmented Reality technology and content.
• MicroVision has BEST near eye display solution in the world. 
• The Near Eye Display could be sold as a whole at any time
• Some other arrangement involving Near Eye Display could show up. (and value based on subscriptions -- would be most profitable for us. (Look at the Beats post, and the Microvision presentation to see that.)
• Companies desperate for AR.... will be REALLY good for Microvision Stockholders       
• (Is someone out there Tracking these people? send a note.)
• iPad Moment for smart Glasses coming soon
• 
  
• The number of subscriptions that can be sold with AR devices is ENORMOUS. If we have the value proposition for near eye display changing to emulate the way the value proposition has just been modified for LiDAR as illustrated in the recent Microvision LiDAR presentation.... then.... we will do really well.

• Microsoft has gotten HUGE increases in productivity with Hololens, and AR Games... will be gigantic.

• Microvision stock is heavily manipulated. 
• (Trading experts tell me it's about 60% manipulated down)
• Public posts by hired guns exist. (paid bashers)

I believe they are quiet about the near eye display on purpose and for strategic reasons.. (NDA, deal underway.... negotiating tactic.... )

As Snow tells me... the elephant in the room named Ned...

Regarding the presentation.....

The Beats Exercise: It's the subscriptions, not the hardware.

The presentation was about LiDAR, and a new way to monetize it. That's a pretty good reason that they talked only about LiDAR.

• The Microvision presentation changed no timelines...
• The Presentation described a means of increasing revenue with LiDAR

For a good summary of what's up, check here (key point below. Give Snowboard credit.)

Tech Alliances - Reuters

Manager's guided to Augmented Reality

Probably a good thing to be the company providing the best displays for this technology.

Harvard Business Review (more at the source)




Augmented reality, a set of technologies that superimposes digital data and images on the physical world, promises to close this gap and release untapped and uniquely human capabilities. Though still in its infancy, AR is poised to enter the mainstream; according to one estimate, spending on AR technology will hit $60 billion in 2020. AR will affect companies in every industry and many other types of organizations, from universities to social enterprises. In the coming months and years, it will transform how we learn, make decisions, and interact with the physical world. It will also change how enterprises serve customers, train employees, design and create products, and manage their value chains, and, ultimately, how they compete.

****More broadly, AR enables a new information-delivery paradigm, which we believe will have a profound impact on how data is structured, managed, and delivered on the internet. Though the web transformed how information is collected, transmitted, and accessed, its model for data storage and delivery—pages on flat screens—has major limits: It requires people to mentally translate 2-D information for use in a 3-D world. That isn’t always easy, as anyone who has used a manual to fix an office copier knows. By superimposing digital information directly on real objects or environments, AR allows people to process the physical and digital simultaneously, eliminating the need to mentally bridge the two. That improves our ability to rapidly and accurately absorb information, make decisions, and execute required tasks quickly and efficiently.

Lots of sharing... What goes into AR and VR

A lot of sharing happens in software... This drone looks like one I've seen before (I think with META)

A couple of samples, you could explore in here for hours.

Sketch FAB

Facebook @sketchfab

Mech Drone by Willy Decarpentrie on Sketchfab

House Interior by Liam Broughm on Sketchfab

Meta & Ultrahaptics & Other Augmented Reality. -- CES

I had a chance to test Meta with Ultrahaptics. This combination is amazing. You really can feel something in the middle of space. The haptic effect is in space, and they make it go with ultrasound.

The display of the meta is pretty good (relative to other AR) but in my experience still distant from what Microvision is capable of. He knew the name Microvision but deflected any deeper inquiries. It's obvious that the two companies have some connections -- how many and how deep I don't know, but Microvision has to be on Meta's Radar, and the other way around as well.

The headset is not comfortable to wear, It's heavy and it made my head feel unbalanced. The field of view left a lot to be desired. It's also a tethered system... so far....Microsoft is ahead of them in that department, but the whole space has a lot of moving parts. (the control interface, the software, the display, applications, etc.) So far, best near eye display I've seen is Microvision's -- and it's WAY ahead of anything else I've seen. 

The haptics works through a kind of mat --- so the area is limited.

This is still an emerging technology that has a LOT of interest from a lot of people.... and there are very good reasons for the interest. -- Increased productivity, and the ability to see 3D images. (see MRI video below) There's a lot to be done on the software side... and it will need a better display which Microvision can supply.


Asked David for a picture so I could be sure to remember just who I talked to.

If you have ever looked at MRI films and tried to understand what they were about, this should look amazing. Now imagine being able to walk around it and get it from different perspectives.... I saw that with the Hololens...  (but again, the hololens display could use some significant improvement.) 

CES Day 1

  26,000 steps (so far.)




Stopped at the booth, saw the phone. Was getting good attention.

IBTimes


Tried: 

Hololens |  Meta | QD Laser

Still nothing that holds a candle to Nomad.

Conclusion -- AR NEEDS MICROVISION.  The capabilities are amazing, what they will eventually allow is awesome -- but their displays are so far not very good. 

QD laser will be amazing for people with limited sight. 

Talked to Amazon people -- including who "certifies" devices for Alexa. That space is going to be huge, and it's going to be a lot different than most of us think.

Saw the Hololamp. Also very nice device. 

Too tired to type much more, and someone owes me a steak.

Next Great Computer Interface - view of the future

How will AR be used? This is a vision.

The list of relationships at the end is pretty intriguing.




I don't think Pokemon Go is the pinnacle of AR. It's kind of like the Solitaire for Windows 3. It's a killer app at a certain time, a big milestone,” John Werner said at Singularity University’s Exponential Manufacturing Summit in Boston.

****

Augmented reality isn’t all that new, Werner pointed out. We’ve been overlaying digital information on the real world for a while. Pilots use it to keep track of digital gauges, and NFL broadcasts include a digital yellow line on the field to show how far teams have to go for a first down.

But his vision goes far beyond Pokémon Go and yellow lines on a football field.

The rapidly falling cost and convergence of the underlying technologies are conspiring to make AR more usable, comfortable, and suitable for the mainstream. Most importantly, whereas AR is now largely constrained to 2D screens, it’s becoming immersive and wearable.

The Meta Summary

The Meta news has unfolded sort of backwards. We got the excitement first, then an intro, then some comparisons.... So, if you're new to the observation... this might seem like much ado about nothing. If you're a novelist, we started at the climax, and we're headed back to the start of the story.

So, let's back up -- and unfold this the right way around.


There's this company called Meta, that's creating some augmented reality glasses. Oh, check it out. There we are in a poster they have in their office -- apparently showing suppliers. (this only just barely blinked by in a Robert Scoble live video.) So far, not such a big deal. This could be interesting though.   (The Meta Connection)

Then, an alert blog viewer sees this comparison. That's Microvision's NOMAD on the right in the picture below.  ( Alert Reader, Meta and Nomad )

And the Meta Glasses in the Video Below. They look awfully similar, don't they? So, the two bits of information we have here -- they make me pretty confident that we're in the META device. Other things that I've seen about the way each works supports the theory that MicroVision is in there. Even more interesting.

Now, if you watch Robert Scoble's videos, he's usually calm and relaxed. When he sees something he'll say "wow, that's really cool." He's used to seeing really interesting new tech and sharing it with the rest of us. He's gotten a good reputation doing it, and has talked to a lot of movers and shakers in the tech world.

His reaction to what you have seen above is below. (Before he could say anything about it. Why are we excited about Meta? He sums it up.)

Look at it on the home page of the Meta website where they have a countdown clock.... with not much time left on the clock.

Augmented Reality decompression.
Posted by Robert Scoble on Thursday, February 4, 2016

Metavision Website

A collection of reactions to the Meta device Below

The META Connection

If you were -- as I was -- dubious that MicroVision was involved with META, I think we can erase a lot of your doubts.

Well, someone over on the Yahoo Message board pointed this out. There's MicroVision's name on this poster of people involved with Meta. Whether they're talking about customers or suppliers or both here, I'm not sure. Although I'm nearly certain MicroVision would be a supplier, not a customer.

So, a couple of days ago we saw the great similarity between the Meta headset and the NOMAD.

Now we see this connection.

I'm pretty sure that the only reason we'd be associated with META is because MicroVision is providing the display. I've looked through the old Nomad system and it has a very wide field of view, which was very lacking in other augmented reality systems Scoble had reviewed. I was assured that the new tech for that system that MicroVision has is a lot better.

Combine all of that (what Scoble says is a TRILLION dollar business) with PicoP --  I think we can officially say, we're in fat city.

We're in good company on that poster.

Here's a link to the Meta Facebook Page, and the video referenced above.

https://www.facebook.com/metaglasses/

Alert Reader -- Meta2 and Nomad

An alert participant on the Yahoo message board, came up with this question... and this looks like a very compelling comparison. 

Of course, you need to judge for yourself, but we'll make it easier.

"Anyone Notice A Remarkable Similarity Between Meta 2 and MicroVision's Nomad displayed at CES 2016?"

MicroVision's Nomad is the picture on the right, below. Meta2 is the video above. (and you can see it before the video plays.) 

Incidentally, the picture on the left(above) is their "short-throw" mount, that has a curious similarity to the dimensions of the SONY "agent" personal assistant.

Meta Unveiled

Q: Is MicroVision in Meta?
A: I don't know.

Meta looks amazing. We'll wait for more details, here's a few links to check out in the meantime.

When I can find good video of the event, I will post it immediately. If it's soon, it will be here, otherwise in a new post.





UploadVR

METAVISION

MetaBlog

Forbes

Freepatents online
(MicroVision Patents containing word "meta")  -- A Google search for "MicroVision + Meta" points here.

Scanning Fiber Projector

There was some discussion about a "scanning fiber" projector on the Yahoo Board. This is a link to a University of Washington paper about the tech.

I saved the link, have a look. Original Source, Wenku

Also important to note here that the technology that Scoble was so excited about was the Meta -- NOT Magic Leap, which is the only company I have heard of that was going to use the "scanning fiber technology."