I will be attending the upcoming investor event

Next week is a Microvision investor event.

I'm still bullish.

I've purchased more shares recently. (Who wouldn't follow the CEO as he takes money from his own pocket to buy more?)

I've been working as a charter pilot lately, and got time off to attend.

For those who are attending -- I'm looking forward to meeting as many of you as I can.

Presentation from Investor Place, Just released

 

The original investing premise for Microvision: Everyone wants a smaller device and a bigger screen

STILL HOLDS TRUE.

Just add some LiDAR into the mix.

The video (I'm about 4 minutes in so far, is a great explanation of AR, and how MicroVision can create more screen real estate.)

AUGMENTED reality Near Eye Displays are worth at least what LiDAR will be worth.

I think a LOT more. 

We are likely in my opinion to get more value in the near term from LiDAR.

What's it worth? 

My recent price target was Minimum of LAZR X 2 Market cap. 

I stand by all my valuation estimates still and I'm happily holding.

APPLE, GOOGLE, AMAZON & MICROSOFT are ALL WORKING ON AUGMENTED REALITY AND SELF-DRIVING VEHICLES....

 Four Companies are all working on two things as "the next big things" Augmented Reality and Self driving vehicles.

Combined they are worth 6.921 Trillion
Together they have 340 billion in cash

If they have a bidding competition for key technology that will give them an edge against the others, how much would they be willing to pay? 

Is 20 Billion too much? (That's about $130/share)

Keeping it REALLY Simple.

 Benchmark --- LAZR  -- Upstart LiDAR company.

Approximate Valuation: 10 Billion. (MicroVision's LiDAR is better)

At the same value: 10 Billion / 152 Million = $66

I consider the near eye display to be worth MORE than the LiDAR -- it certainly I think will be at least as widely used. Now that we have a value for LiDAR, I'm significantly adjusting my guess on NED -- I'm keeping my guess simple.

Market Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) is likely more important than fundamentals... And the fundamentals here are REALLY good.

Give it a comparable valuation:

$66 + $66 = $132


Review previous Value Posts

Value LiDAR

The Beats Exercise 

Near Eye Display

The Beats Exercise

Beats sold to Apple for 3.2 Billion. Why?

This was a mysterious acquisition when it happened. Not too difficult to make a new kind of headset, but that was what everyone saw when they purchased it.

Why did Apple buy Beats?


Apple's Beats Acquisition has already paid off

Indeed, Apple Music would launch in June 2015, and amass 10 million subscribers by January 2016 -- 20 million paid users that December. Less than two years later, and after some redesigns, it would double its tally to 40 million. Sure, the company hasn't caught Spotify globally, and it may never be able to. But in the US, Apple reportedly has more paying users than its biggest rival.

The reason for the price wasn't obvious --- but it was there.

It was not for the hardware, but for the number of subscriptions it could sell.

So, you need to ask yourself, how many paying subscriptions could MicroVision's technology enable?

Microsoft office is a subscription.

In the world of AR there will likely be subscription services for education, games, business applications, or additional fees just to have AR service.

Interactive projection(or display only) could improve the appeal media subscriptions significantly.

Can they sell in a few years 20 million subscriptions? There's your 3.8 Billion. ($27/share)


Secret History of Beats

“By 2013, Beats Electronics was a distressed business by any standard,” said the late PrivCo chief Sam Hamadeh. “The company was in a corner until Carlyle stepped in.” 

The Carlyle investment also gave Beats the funds it needed to keep expanding. That was especially important given the focus on its new streaming service. Beats Music celebrated its official launch in January 2014 with a concert at the Belasco Theater in Los Angeles, fronted by Dre, Diddy, Eminem, Nas, and Ice Cube. Inside, superstars from Drake to Pink mingled with label chiefs and talent agency executives at the oversubscribed show.

There were no reports of Apple executives in the crowd, but the computer giant was clearly watching. On May 8, the Financial Times reported that Apple had agreed to purchase Beats for $3.2 billion; that night, the grainy YouTube video of Dr. Dre’s impromptu celebration lit up the Internet.

******three weeks later, though, the deal went through—for a final price of $3 billion. “No traditional valuation measure applied to Beats as a business justifies the price,”

It seems pretty clear to me that it was purchased for getting subscriptions to increase. If it already paid off for the increase from doubling the number of paid users from 20 million to 40 million --- you have to ask yourself can the results from MicroVision's Near Eye Display OR their Interactive Display result in 20 million paid subscriptions? (I believe the answer is clearly yes it can -- significantly more than that.) so those 20 million paid subscribers are worth 

The Value Question: Part 1 -- Interactive Display.

I have stuff to do so I need to break this one up.

If MicroVision is for sale, it's a pretty good idea for the shareholders to get an idea of what it's worth. (This is all MY opinion, and I'm not making any recommendations.)

Interactive Display:

This was DELAYED, not destroyed.

From the November 6 Conference Call:

"Our activities related to our Interactive Display solutions resulted in a major step forward during the past few months as customer due diligence work has now led to negotiations for component purchase agreement that we aim to complete this quarter fora targeted launch of our interactive display module in 2020. As customer products come to market, we expect our company revenues could reach $100 million over a 12-month period, following product launches that we expect to start in the second half of 2020"
I have my reasons for believing that this customer is AMAZON. ($AMZN)

The Value question:

Company sale criteria (5x IBITDA)  If it's the only income and is expected to continue at this rate, then this vertical would be worth $500,000,000 (or $3.75/Share)

Or.....

100 million per year / # shares * PE ratio

100,000,000 / 140,000,000 = $0.71/share in earnings. (Yes, I know there are expenses that will have an effect.)

PE 20 (20*.71) = $14.20/share
PE 30 (30*.71) = $21.30/share

We don't need to take that higher.... whatever the case I think for this vertical the range is huge... something possibly less than $3.75 to somewhere north of $21.

Where it ends up, depends on the anticipated size of the market.

Given the amazing potential of "The Internet of Things" this could be significantly bigger than many of us believe. (I doubt it will be smaller.) My own theory is that everything that uses a powerful computer benefits from its own screen. (Doom on Thermostat)

The company knows a LOT more than I do.

Remember this is for one vertical, and probably the smallest one.

Barring significant interruptions, I'll be working through the rest of the verticals this week.
Hat tip to KYinvestor.
 

LiDAR Partners Program

From reddit


OnSemiconductor

The LiDAR Partners Program is an ecosystem consisting of module manufacturers, module customization partners, and component suppliers. It offers opportunities for LiDAR module manufacturers to benefit from our expertise, reference designs, and component partner ecosystem when designing LiDAR solutions. This program also allows OEMs to be better connected to these module suppliers by leveraging our worldwide sales force to promote the publicly available partner solutions more widely to the industry. If an OEM has specific design requirements, the ability to connect with a customization partner specialized in manufacturing based on reference designs makes turning custom specifications into a product easier for OEMs that do not want to design or manufacture their own LiDAR sensor.

Over the past month, we announced collaborations with a number of LiDAR module manufacturers using ON Semiconductor SiPMs in their sensors. We are pleased to introduce this first wave of partners, listed below, in the LiDAR Partners Program, and look forward to announcing many more in the coming months.

• MicroVision
• RoboSense
• Blickfeld
• SOS Lab

Find out more about our LiDAR Ecosystem Partners and their products today! For live demos of our LiDAR technology, visit us on February 4-6^th at the SPIE Photonics West Exhibition in San Francisco, California.

Interesting new Video from Microvision

Very interesting how they have improved projection by recognizing what not to project onto.

No reflections, and different surfaces... cool stuff.

The ability to not project on shiny things may have been a requirement for the market.

Do not doubt the coming enormous popularity of Augmented Reality

....and it will get people out and about. This kind of thing will be enormously popular, far beyond enterprise use.

...and there are a lot of relationships in this business... and they make for an interesting and tangled web; some of it purposeful, some incidental.

Now this was apparently made by an independent developer, but there are LOTS of independent developers working on stuff that will be this cool.Ian Charnas


Hack-A-Day





"Mario Kart^[a] is a series of go-kart-style racing video games developed and published by Nintendo as spin-offs from its trademark Super Mario series. The first in the series, Super Mario Kart, was launched in 1992 on the Super Nintendo Entertainment System to critical and commercial success.^[1]

 With six Mario Kart games released on home consoles, three on portable handheld consoles, four arcade games co-developed with Namco and one for mobile phones, the Mario Kart series includes a total of fourteen entries. The latest game in the main series, Mario Kart Tour, was released on iOS and Android in September 2019. The series has sold over 100 million copies worldwide to date. "


If you like Breadcrumbs, this is also a Nintendo Product, and Slade Gorton on the MVIS board has a relationship with Nintendo... He got Nintendo involved with the Seattle Mariners.... and Nintendo and Microsoft know each other...

The Man who Saved the Mariners Q 13 Fox News

"By now, the main story has been well documented: Mariners owner Jeff Smulyan putting the team up for sale in 1991, and Senator Slade Gorton saving the day, approaching Nintendo, which offered to buy the team - then organizing a group of local investors to join as partners."

Map

Collection of IVAS Articles

Thank you Walt!

It appears that the Army is taking this very seriously.


Soldiers Test new IVAS Tech

The final product -- officials say it will likely be fielded in the fourth quarter of FY21 -- will include a variety of features: a color see-through digital display that makes it possible for the user to access information without taking his eye off the battlefield; thermal and low-light sensors that make it possible to see in the dark, literally; rapid target acquisition and aided target identification; augmented reality and artificial intelligence, to name just a few.
 
How the Soldier Lethality Team



 Army's Tactical Network...

When optimized, the Integrated Visual Augmentation System (IVAS) is a single platform that features advanced goggles connected to a body wearable computer, or puck, to perform multiple situational awareness functions, including a simulated training environment (STE), advanced night vision, target acquisition and language translation for enhanced situational awareness. 

 Soldier Feedback Drives Modernization

Real World 3D For Operations

Natick Experts... 

Army Tests Augmented Reality Headset

New Night Vision Goggles

Marines try out Mixed Reality  

Third IVAS Evaluation Slated for July 

New Goggles bring AI to soldier Training

Smithsonian

Smithsonian
No one will want this

For $3500 you have access skills it takes years of training to develop.

Buy Hololens

I’m in Redmond, Washington, in a room at Microsoft, pondering an all-terrain vehicle that has a busted engine. I have no idea how to fix it. I’ve never done engine repair before.

But I do have some help: On my head, I’m wearing the HoloLens 2, Microsoft’s “augmented reality” device. It has a see-through visor, almost like the one on a motorcycle helmet, and the HoloLens projects images onto the visor so they appear to float in the air before you.

When I look at the vehicle, the HoloLens flickers to life, and a guide to fixing the engine pops up in the air. A blue arrow points at a tableful of tools, and when I walk over to it, the arrow indicates that I should grab a torque wrench. Once I take that tool, a new arrow appears, beckoning me across the room to a case of bolts. I grab a bolt, and a third arrow shows me where on the engine to install and tighten it. In under two minutes I’ve completed the repair.

The sensation is bizarre, like living in a world of Harry Potter magic. I can even touch the holograms. While I’m doing another repair job, a virtual screen with the face of a remote mechanic materializes before me to talk me through the job. The screen is in my way, though—so I grab it by the corner with my fingers, right there in the air, and drag it off to the side.

Connecting Conference Call Dots...

By Ronald Stauber

Our activities related to our Interactive Display solutions resulted in a major step forward during the past few months as customer due diligence work has now led to negotiations for a component purchase agreement that we aim to complete this quarter* for a targeted launch of our Interactive Display module in 2020. 

"...we aim to complete" seems to imply that terms have been agreed to and the ball is in MicroVision's court with the contract sitting on PM's desk waiting for him to sign and reveal at an opportune moment. I believe that he has learned his lesson of prematurely announcing expectations from the delay caused by Tier-1s requesting the switch to Class 1 laser light engines.

"These engagements over the past few quarters continue to reinforce our belief that MicroVision has the potential with our Interactive Display product to sell 1 to 3 million units during the first 12 to 24 months of production.

If 3 million units = $100 million in revenue, then we can estimate our expected revenue to be in the area of $33 per unit.

We believe that this capability expands the potential market for our Interactive Display products to include personal mobile gaming devices. With a larger potential market, we believe that we have increased the opportunity for our Interactive Display product to sell well in excess of 10 million units to multiple customers.

So 10 million additional Interactive Display units sold for mobile gaming should lead to revenues of about $330 million with margins increasing due to economies of scale! 

I believe that the TAM will be much greater, but let us err on the conservative side.

I think that is pretty exciting!

I agree, Mr. Mulligan!

Leveraging our years of Laser Beam Scanning experience and our demonstrated capabilities in LiDAR, the Automotive LiDAR vertical is a natural fit for MicroVision. That said, we needed to develop critical additional capabilities to meet some of the performance requirements in this space. With new IP for these innovations recently filed we believe we have the right solution at the right time. Early in 2019 we engaged several top tier Automotive OEMs and presented an outline of our first product to market. This product would be intended to support up to ADAS Level 3 autonomy.

So MicroVision has been working on this vertical for some time in silence and has filed for patents on new IP, and in early 2019 engaged with several top tier Automotive OEMs. Sounds like NRE opportunities exist along the lines of the April 2017 contract with Microsoft and revenues from this could result. Now which Automotive OEMs were heavily committing to Microsoft HoloLens2? Toyota was one, IIRC.

So we could be looking at MicroVision revenues over $400 million, not counting HoloLens2 and other AR/MR contributions or Display Only or Consumer LiDAR, in the next few years from a public company selling for $0.75 per share currently. 

And now it's all public information if you know how to read between the lines.

Conference Call

I've been gone a lot and extremely focused on some training. Arrived home yesterday just as the conference call was getting started.

This company will be the source of key components in multiple emerging technologies.

I said "I told you you'd hear numbers like that eventually." a number of times yesterday.

Most of the delay is probably from trade adjustments with China. Short term disruptive, long term, this should be a very positive development.

"I can say that certainly looks like our logo."
Is one of the all time best lines in any conference call ever.

Hololens Shipping
Conference Call Transcript

CC Links including recording


Production unit shipments for our April 2017 contract customer began in the third quarter and continue to proceed smoothly, meeting our customers production schedule. Our activities related to our Interactive Display solutions resulted in a major step forward during the past few months as customer due diligence work has now led to negotiations for component purchase agreement that we aim to complete this quarter fora targeted launch of our interactive display module in 2020.

As customer products come to market, we expect our company revenues could reach $100 million over a 12-month period, following product launches that we expect to start in the second half of 2020Let's move on to our automotive LiDAR product. The markets for advanced driver assistance systems is experiencing high growth that we expect to accelerate with the need for safety features and new regulations targeted to come into effect in the next 3 to 4 years.

More Later.... 

Michael Fawzy Malouf - Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC, Research Division - Partner, Senior Research Analyst & Head of Boston Team 

Yes. That's helpful. I didn't realize if this was specifically for Interactive Display only. So that's helpful.And then if I could just ask 1 more question. Just recently, Alex Kipman, who has been really the guru behind the HoloLens 2 did this whole presentation about a month ago, talking about the HoloLens 2 and in that he showed a slide actually of the prototype of the device and its clearly seen on their the MicroVision logo on the PCB Board. So I'm just kind of curious, is that sort of a public validation that you're on the HoloLens 2?
 And I would love to get a little bit of comments, specifically, tied to that presentation that Alex gave?

Perry M. Mulligan - MicroVision, Inc. - CEO & Director

Yes. So just that we're on the same page, Mike, I believe that this is -- you're referencing the presentation that Alex made on October 3rd at the ETHGlobal Lecture Series in Zurich?
Michael Fawzy Malouf - Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC, Research Division - Partner, Senior Research Analyst & Head of Boston Team
That's right. In fact, it was titled the HoloLens 2 - Unpacked.
Perry M. Mulligan - MicroVision, Inc. - CEO & Director Right. So he called -- he referenced some of the pictures I think the HoloLens 2 model. And in that picture, it looks like you can see the MicroVisionlogo on some of those components. We can confirm that it appears to be our logo. And beyond that, I can't make any other comment.

Minecraft Earth

Adding new Countries....

Unreal Engine -- Hololens

Thanks Mike!

As for me, I can't wait until it's available to assist with CRJ 200 Systems.

Tetra Pack

https://www.tahawultech.com/magazines/tetrapak-on-delivering-smart-factory/

We’re using new technologies for predictive maintenance and remote support through wearable technology, such as HoloLens – this takes away the necessity of being reliant on a specific skillset in each and every market. In turn producers have less downtime and save resources. We have set this up in 56 customers’ sites already. This is growing and depending on what service agreement we have with our customers, there’s more or less interaction between the local workforce and the global support system.

This is an interesting something I haven't seen anywhere else before. It might be the truth or a significant error. (they're not uncommon in tech press, so I don't give this a lot of weight, but it's something to look at.... certainly, Microsoft has manufacturing partners.)

HoloLens is simply wearable technology – field engineers can wear the glasses and connect to a remote specialist, who might be sitting in Germany, Italy or any of our main production centres. It allows remote interactive support between the two. While the technology is Microsoft’s, the actual hardware is provided by Siemens.

Minecraft Earth

Everything AR on your phone will be AR with Glasses....

Minecraft is Microsoft.

The Most popular Youtube Video on Hololens.... Minecraft.

I'm still slammed, and unable to pay as much attention as I'd like... things are getting interesting again.

Thanks Mike

C|net

When is Minecraft Earth coming out?

Starting this month, Microsoft plans to roll out to individual regions early access to game, until it's available worldwide by the end of the fall. Once it hits your area, you can start playing.

Sign up to be part of the Minecraft Earth early access program. Android users can also preregister for the game and get a notification when it's available. 

 

Spatial Computing, Scoble

Thanks Walt








What "Spatial Computing" Needs is a tiny LiDAR unit with 17+ Million PPS resolution.



We have that.


LinkedIn Article

There is a new paradigm coming. It will arrive in full force by 2025.
It is Spatial Computing.
Computing that you, a robot, or a virtual being, can move through.
Some think it's ambient computing. That's a piece. Some think it's augmented reality. That's a piece. Some think it's virtual reality. That's a piece. Those all fit under the spatial computing tent.
We can feel it when we go into an Amazon Go store where hundreds of cameras and sensors are watching our every move.
We can feel it when we put on a Microsoft HoloLens and move virtual factories around with our bare hands. No mouse needed.
We can feel it when we look at the new Samsung Note 10 phones that have a 3D sensor with hundreds of thousands of data points. That lets your phone do augmented reality that is pretty mind blowing, actually.
We can feel it when we see surgeries being prepared for, and done, with augmented reality glasses (and I know of one, coming, that even saves surgeons' own lives).
We can feel it when we see robots delivering things in Las Vegas hotels.
We can feel it when we see a self-driving car whiz past while we sit in a Mountain View cafe. Or, when you let a Tesla drive you, like I do every day.
We can feel it when Merge Labs announces they have sold a million augmented reality cubes, mostly to teachers who are starting to teach in a new way.
We can feel it when we talk to the founder of Sketchfab and he shows us his stats are going up exponentially, now with millions of 3D models in his search engine.

On Sale in September

Last week I stopped by the Microsoft campus, and visited the Microsoft store there. I asked if I could see a Hololens 2.

I did see one, but it was on the head of an employee who was "gathering data." He raved about it but didn't let me try it on.

The folks at the store there said that their Hololens 2 was overdue. They expected it a couple of weeks ago and still haven't seen it. So they're on the "any day now" plan.

When it shows up I'll head down to check it out in person.


SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Microsoft Corp’s second generation HoloLens augmented reality headset will go on sale in September, the company’s executive vice president Harry Shum said on Thursday.

Shum made the comment in a speech at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai.


Display first... 

In the strictest sense, it's still speculative that Microvision's tech is in Hololens. (But there is enough evidence that I'm all in) This contract when mentioned, Microvision stated that once development was complete, Microvision could sell the results to whoever they wanted to.

I think the enterprise focus of Microsoft made things happen a bit more slowly, but a lot better. I think consumer versions will be close behind.

Reuters

The Verge

It's there, but not there.

To the largest part of the market(where the most money is moved,) the idea that Microsoft will make any headway with Hololens is speculative.

I expect we'd hear this if we asked them about it: "We've heard something about it, and saw something once, and... show me. Until then I have paying customers who want to get into UBER."

Microsoft hasn't really made any efforts to move it into the mass market yet.

If you go to their store and look up devices, it's not even listed. (VR and virtual reality are listed) but then you end up on the splash screen below... where Hololens will appear...second -- after Facebook's Oculus Rift. 

Hololens is there, but not really there. If you're going out of your way to find it, you can find it. If you just wait for it to jump in front of you... it's not going to happen. 

In spite of all of the glowing reviews - amazing results and demonstrations - and the huge Military contract for the device, the most popular video about it on YouTube is about.... Minecraft. (Has less than 5 million views... ) The amazing demonstrations of it in use improving productivity are way down the list. (They don't need YouTube to get the word out to people who will employ it that way.)

The idea that Microvision is in the Hololens is secondary speculation. Which in my view both painful and awesome.

We do not have definitive proof that MicroVision's tech is in the Hololens, but there's enough evidence that it could win the court case, and the appeals.

Meanwhile, there are 1.7 billion shares of UBER, trading at $33. It has a market cap of 57 Billion, and loses $3 per share. --- but it's popular, and people like to throw their money into it.

Given the behavior of Microsoft around Hololens.... when they do their media blitz they will get it a lot of attention... and the part of the market where the most money is moved will notice.

Microsoft Virtual Reality