Keeping it REALLY Simple.

 Benchmark --- LAZR  -- Upstart LiDAR company.

Approximate Valuation: 10 Billion. (MicroVision's LiDAR is better)

At the same value: 10 Billion / 152 Million = $66

I consider the near eye display to be worth MORE than the LiDAR -- it certainly I think will be at least as widely used. Now that we have a value for LiDAR, I'm significantly adjusting my guess on NED -- I'm keeping my guess simple.

Market Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) is likely more important than fundamentals... And the fundamentals here are REALLY good.

Give it a comparable valuation:

$66 + $66 = $132


Review previous Value Posts

Value LiDAR

The Beats Exercise 

Near Eye Display

Microsoft Acquiring Microvision?

The Rumor mill has been very active lately, I'll hold onto my doubts about any announcement of an acquisition today, but there may be an a confirmation that the tech is used by Microsoft in Hololens.

If you've been following closely for the last year, there is little doubt that Microvision's near-eye display is the display for hololens.



MSPowerUser
 

MicroVision is a leader in ultra-miniature sensing and projection solution based on the laser beam scanning methodology. MicroVision has a substantial portfolio of patents relating to laser beam scanning projection and sensing. For example, MicroVision’s MEMS engine can be found inside Microsoft Hololens 2.

Today, Florida Independent reported that Microsoft is acquiring MicroVision and the news may be officially announced on May 12th. More than the current product portfolio, MicroVision’s IP will be a great asset for Microsoft. Also, MicroVision is already in talks with several car manufacturers for providing sensor technologies for autonomous vehicles. MicroVision’s relationship with car manufacturers may also help Microsoft to push its Azure cloud in the automotive industry.

Collection of IVAS Articles

Thank you Walt!

It appears that the Army is taking this very seriously.


Soldiers Test new IVAS Tech

The final product -- officials say it will likely be fielded in the fourth quarter of FY21 -- will include a variety of features: a color see-through digital display that makes it possible for the user to access information without taking his eye off the battlefield; thermal and low-light sensors that make it possible to see in the dark, literally; rapid target acquisition and aided target identification; augmented reality and artificial intelligence, to name just a few.
 
How the Soldier Lethality Team



 Army's Tactical Network...

When optimized, the Integrated Visual Augmentation System (IVAS) is a single platform that features advanced goggles connected to a body wearable computer, or puck, to perform multiple situational awareness functions, including a simulated training environment (STE), advanced night vision, target acquisition and language translation for enhanced situational awareness. 

 Soldier Feedback Drives Modernization

Real World 3D For Operations

Natick Experts... 

Army Tests Augmented Reality Headset

New Night Vision Goggles

Marines try out Mixed Reality  

Third IVAS Evaluation Slated for July 

New Goggles bring AI to soldier Training

Connecting Conference Call Dots...

By Ronald Stauber

Our activities related to our Interactive Display solutions resulted in a major step forward during the past few months as customer due diligence work has now led to negotiations for a component purchase agreement that we aim to complete this quarter* for a targeted launch of our Interactive Display module in 2020. 

"...we aim to complete" seems to imply that terms have been agreed to and the ball is in MicroVision's court with the contract sitting on PM's desk waiting for him to sign and reveal at an opportune moment. I believe that he has learned his lesson of prematurely announcing expectations from the delay caused by Tier-1s requesting the switch to Class 1 laser light engines.

"These engagements over the past few quarters continue to reinforce our belief that MicroVision has the potential with our Interactive Display product to sell 1 to 3 million units during the first 12 to 24 months of production.

If 3 million units = $100 million in revenue, then we can estimate our expected revenue to be in the area of $33 per unit.

We believe that this capability expands the potential market for our Interactive Display products to include personal mobile gaming devices. With a larger potential market, we believe that we have increased the opportunity for our Interactive Display product to sell well in excess of 10 million units to multiple customers.

So 10 million additional Interactive Display units sold for mobile gaming should lead to revenues of about $330 million with margins increasing due to economies of scale! 

I believe that the TAM will be much greater, but let us err on the conservative side.

I think that is pretty exciting!

I agree, Mr. Mulligan!

Leveraging our years of Laser Beam Scanning experience and our demonstrated capabilities in LiDAR, the Automotive LiDAR vertical is a natural fit for MicroVision. That said, we needed to develop critical additional capabilities to meet some of the performance requirements in this space. With new IP for these innovations recently filed we believe we have the right solution at the right time. Early in 2019 we engaged several top tier Automotive OEMs and presented an outline of our first product to market. This product would be intended to support up to ADAS Level 3 autonomy.

So MicroVision has been working on this vertical for some time in silence and has filed for patents on new IP, and in early 2019 engaged with several top tier Automotive OEMs. Sounds like NRE opportunities exist along the lines of the April 2017 contract with Microsoft and revenues from this could result. Now which Automotive OEMs were heavily committing to Microsoft HoloLens2? Toyota was one, IIRC.

So we could be looking at MicroVision revenues over $400 million, not counting HoloLens2 and other AR/MR contributions or Display Only or Consumer LiDAR, in the next few years from a public company selling for $0.75 per share currently. 

And now it's all public information if you know how to read between the lines.

Hololens Guides

Thanks Mike

On Sale in September

Last week I stopped by the Microsoft campus, and visited the Microsoft store there. I asked if I could see a Hololens 2.

I did see one, but it was on the head of an employee who was "gathering data." He raved about it but didn't let me try it on.

The folks at the store there said that their Hololens 2 was overdue. They expected it a couple of weeks ago and still haven't seen it. So they're on the "any day now" plan.

When it shows up I'll head down to check it out in person.


SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Microsoft Corp’s second generation HoloLens augmented reality headset will go on sale in September, the company’s executive vice president Harry Shum said on Thursday.

Shum made the comment in a speech at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai.


Display first... 

In the strictest sense, it's still speculative that Microvision's tech is in Hololens. (But there is enough evidence that I'm all in) This contract when mentioned, Microvision stated that once development was complete, Microvision could sell the results to whoever they wanted to.

I think the enterprise focus of Microsoft made things happen a bit more slowly, but a lot better. I think consumer versions will be close behind.

Reuters

The Verge

Hololens Partner Videos

The partners they highlighted on their new page. Videos from them. (couldn't find a good one from Medvis)

The Page
CAE Healthcare



Pearson



Siemens Truck Maintenance


Bosch



Upskill



Phillips

Wear this and learn your job

Do not doubt how big this will be.



New York Times

CHILLICOTHE, Ohio — When Toby Bouska Jr. started assembling cabs for Kenworth semitrucks last year, he learned the ropes by observing longtime workers at the factory. But it wasn’t exactly engaging, and he didn’t get much practice doing the job himself.

“It’s them doing the job, and you just have to watch,” said Mr. Bouska, 21, who works at Kenworth’s plant in Chillicothe. “I’m not really good at just sitting there watching.”

But then his managers had him train in a new way: with a high-tech headset. They gave him a Microsoft HoloLens, a device that blends digital imagery with the real world. When he wore the headset, it overlaid digital arrows and diagrams over the parts he was looking at, helping to guide his work.

“With the HoloLens, it’s just you and the directions,” Mr. Bouska said. He said he had picked up his first new task in about 20 minutes.

The latest version of HoloLens, which ships later this year, will be more tailored to workers than this original model.CreditAndrew Spear for The New York Times

Microsoft estimates that two billion frontline workers have access to fast internet connections and are, in theory, potential customers. In a call with investors this year, Satya Nadella, Microsoft’s chief executive, said selling products for firstline workers expanded the market Microsoft could tap into.

Samsung a new kind of display

This patent references multiple ways of delivering data to a screen -- to projecting imagery -- which is the key part of the Microvision thesis.

There is nearly endless demand to deliver imagery to consumers. They are all hungry for data, information to be delivered to them electronically. 

People also want those devices delivering data to them to be small and portable.

Microvision's tech uses lasers --- the most efficient way to produce light --- to deliver imagery to consumers. It can be small, portable, and if you want to hang it on a wall, or conceal it in plain site, it's the ticket.

Some larger devices that can be plugged in, hardwired and focused at a fixed distance may use other technology -- that's fine, there's a lot of room in the space.

When you want it tiny, portable and energy efficiency is key... MicroVision's tech rules.

Confidence is pretty high with me that at least one Major Player will use Microvision's Interactive Display. (Amazon) and also quite high that the contract that exists to produce the display only projection is Sharp/Foxconn (the world's #1 electronics maker)


Patently Mobile

Thanks Ron


Early last month the US Patent & Trademark Office published a granted patent from Samsung relating to a new kind of portable projector that could sit on a table, like our cover graphic illustrates, or be easily attached to a wall to show slides, pictures, videos or simply watch live TV. The projection system could be controlled by a smartphone or any other kind of computer such as a tablet, laptop, desktop, wearable device like a smartwatch or even a set-top-box.

(DMD / LCOS / DLP)

Furthermore, the laser scheme may include a light source that consists of a red light emitting device, a green light emitting device, and a blue light emitting device, an optical tunnel to which laser light emitted from the light source is incident, and a display device configured to project an image onto a screen using the laser light incident through the optical tunnel. The laser scheme may also include, as a projection module, a structure including a synthesis module for performing synthesis by transmitting or reflecting some colors of the laser light emitted from the light source and a speckle remover for removing speckles by irregularly changing a phase of the laser light synthesized through the synthesis module.


The sensor module may be an array of sensors that measure a physical quantity or sense an operation state of the electronic device and may convert the measured or sensed information into an electric signal. The sensor module may include, for example, a gesture sensor; a gyro sensor; an acceleration sensor;  an ultrasonic sensor; an infrared sensor; a Hall effect sensor; a proximity sensor; 140G; and an illumination sensor.

Chasing Holograms

Thanks Ron!

Airbus and more.

Interesting that the two premier aircraft manufacturing companies in the world are both on board with Hololens. 

This is describing even better results than I thought we'd get.

This tech will take the world by storm -- and very few people know about it yet. (just 7000 views on the Airbus video when I linked it.)

Being an investor in the provider of key components to new technologies that will improve productivity and human connection significantly is a fantastic place to be.  (Like holding CSCO in 1995....SWKS in 2013... )

Listen to the Podcast (thx reddituser flyingmirrors)

This guy is interesting, and he seems to have a mostly balanced view. The podcast is long, but he does say flatly that MVIS is in Hololens. He hasn't seen the display yet. (and seems significantly influenced by a MVIS naysayer who has admitted he was incorrect.)

I anticipate that the display now will have the field of view of Nomad or better -- with better resolution and brightness, which will be a stunning improvement from Hololens 1. Part of what I'm basing that on is the size of the wave guide in pictures of Hololens 2, I don't know yet, I haven't tried it.

In the podcast one of the questions was about whether the Hololens 2 is good enough to start living up to the promises of AR. The answer was clearly yes... and, given the reaction of Airbus, I wouldn't doubt that. (Also the language in the Airbus video seems to indicate that Airbus is ALREADY using Hololens 2.)

Neowin
Technology Record
Computerworld





"Hololens devices in a bid to speed production and improve training for new staff. Airbus is also teaming up with Microsoft to sell MR apps to other businesses in the airline industry."

"Airbus has identified more than 300 potential use cases for MR across its business, such as remote staff training that doesn’t tie up expensive equipment. MR systems can also boost frontline worker productivity at Airbus with hands-free access to information, such as instructions or diagrams overlaid on physical machinery, cutting manufacturing time by a third. "

The company also said design processes are 80% quicker because designs can be tested in 3D before manufacturing.

“Mixed reality can help us to increase quality, safety and security” Jean-Brice Dumont, executive vice president of engineering at Airbus, said in a blog post Monday. “The level of human error is significantly reduced, and in aerospace, increased quality is increased safety – and needless to say, security goes with that.”


Also, don't forget this.... something weird is going on between these two companies. This is a greeting of Airbus from Boeing. That features the hololens.

Watch Nokia

A couple of dots that are interesting. So Nokia is going crazy with 5G -- under the name "Nokia"

But Nokia is really Microsoft Mobile, but still in this article as "the Finnish" company.

Verizon is all over 5G -- and using Hololens to advertise that. (Check recent post)

During my recent visit to Taqtile, I asked how they got started with Hololens. The answer was they were designing apps for Microsoft phones, but Microsoft phones were getting phased out, and they were invited to work on the NEW project.....

****************

UPDATE (also functioning separately.)

The Finnish telecommunications equipment maker said Tuesday that it has signed 42 commercial 5G deals around the world.

That puts it on par with Huawei, which has invested heavily in developing the next generation of wireless technology that will underpin much of the new digital economy.

NextWeb, Microsoft Bought Nokia

Old Video From Nokia (2012) --- Did they know this was coming that long ago?

Mixed Reality Playground

I don't have time yet this morning, but this is on my agenda.

Not too long ago, Microsoft released version 2 of the HoloLens, simply known as HoloLens 2. And I can surely say that most of you didn’t even see it for real. If you’re one of those then it’s pretty much safe to say that you don’t understand the tech behind the HoloLens as much as you understand the PCs and smartphones. Microsoft is here to help you.

Microsoft has released a new app to the Microsoft Store. Microsoft’s MR Playground is a new app that will guide you through the latest technology available for HoloLens 2. Here is how the official described it:

An open source sample app showcasing the latest technology available for HoloLens 2. In this app users can place cubes in their environment that unpack into various interactable mini-experiences.

FEATURES

• Movable world-locked object palette
• Spawn a holographic hummingbird that follows your hands.
• Pop gems with your eyes and voice.

MSPoweruser

Download the APP

Folding Phones are cool, Hololens cooler.

Nice compliments for the display better resolution, wider field of view, and eye tracking.

Also talking about OTHER companies making their own custom Hololens. (boom!)

Windows Central



Additionally, through hardware, platform, partnership, and Azure cloud services advancements announced this year, Microsoft is moving an already successful model even further with its target market: the world's more than two billion front-line workers.

The potential market for its wearable PC is larger than Microsoft's current 1.5 billion PC installed base. And, like Windows PC proliferation of the past, which also began in the enterprise, Microsoft retains the following strengths: It's providing Windows, a familiar enterprise-accepted platform, a supporting infrastructure of services and security, and the ability for partners to conform this wearable PC (like traditional PCs of the past) to their specific needs.

9 Augmented Reality Stocks to Enhance your portfolio

They haven't figured out yet that its all but certain that Microvision is in the Hololens.... but it's an AR stock to enhance your portfolio.

It's heavy on the advertisement, but the source is here:

Investorplace

AR Stocks to Enhance Your Portfolio: Microvision, Inc. (MVIS)

For the record, Microvision, Inc. (NASDAQ:MVIS) and Microsoft are two different companies. The aforementioned Microsoft is the maker of the HoloLens, which may be on the verge of becoming a must-have. Microvision’s role in the augmented reality movement, however, it a little bit different. It’s the maker of laser (and the supporting technologies) that can project images and data into glass.

The most practical and tangible use of its PicoP(r) technology is the projection of the information normally found on a car’s dashboard up to the windshield, allowing a driver to keep his or her eyes on the road. It’s the same basic concept being used by Google Glass, Microsoft’s HoloLens and the like though — melding the benefits of a transparent material with valuable information overlaid.

Hololens Reality News UPDATE

I found this to be an excellent summary article...

News getting out is going to be what gets the stock price moving. Most of the world is still ignorant of AR, MR Hololens, Magic Leap, and all the others. Nearly everyone exposed to it expresses disbelief that it can be done.

Messed up on the key link yesterday, so this is a repost.

This is one source that found

AND.... it references Microvision through the link mentioning the patent 



Hololens Reality News

"During the presentation at MWC, Alex Kipman, Microsoft technical fellow and head honcho of HoloLens, noted that the HoloLens 2 employs a microelectromechanical (MEMS) laser scanner to achieve the wider field of view, a fact that was foreshadowed by a patent application published by the US Patent and Trademark Office in last June and filed by Microsoft in Dec. 2016." --- They found Microvision here.


The display is arguably the most important aspect of any augmented reality headset. One of the biggest criticisms of the original HoloLens was its limited field of view of around 35 degrees. For the sequel, Microsoft has managed to more than double the field of view while maintaining image fidelity at 47 pixels per degree of sight.

Hololens cheaper and lighter and...

Go find any other instance of depth sensing within an image generation optical system.

MVIS's system is that.

I believe this is very powerful evidence MVIS is inside....

...and the evidence suggests that Hololens functionality will be included in everyone's Windows 10 installation in April or so.


Techradar

As the patent explains: “The disclosed optical system thus eliminates the need for both a dedicated image-generation optical system and a dedicated terrain-mapping optical system within a device that requires these dual functionalities…the disclosed optical system represents a substantial advance toward producing compact and lightweight NED devices.”

Economist biggest stories of the year

Good find by Ben
AR up first.

Hololens and Bricks and Mortar

Retail is struggling. But a lot of people miss it. Mixing the two could create some interesting and profitable efficiencies.



WinBuzzer

Microsoft has shown it is not quite ready to give up on the physical shopping experience just yet. For example, last year we discussed the company’s efforts to compete with Amazon Go. Microsoft is reportedly working on bringing an automated shopping experience to bricks and mortar locations.

As the company pushes more into retail, it could be Mixed Reality that changes the physical shopping experience. Of course, Microsoft has done more than most to develop Mixed Reality and make it viable in real-world scenarios.

A recent Microsoft Patent shows a method for placing shopping buttons within a virtual reality render. As you may know, Mixed Reality blends the virtual with the real, so this shopping button would interact with real world environments and objects.

"“Disclosed is a system and method for mixed reality that includes a holographic button (eg, a 3D object) that can be downloaded from a provider’s website. The holographic button allows a user in the mixed reality world to order the article by interacting with the holographic button. The user in the mixed reality world can place the holographic button near a relevant real object. Whenever the user interacts with the real object through its mixed reality (ie virtual interaction with the real object), the holographic button may appear so that the user can order the element associated with the holographic button.”"

Hrvoje Benko Video (Facebook, Microsoft) AR interaction