Showing posts with label $msft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label $msft. Show all posts

Monday, November 1, 2021

Augmented Reality is Real...

Facebook will be ticker MVRS


Apple Google Facebook Microsoft are all working on Augmented Reality.

MicroVision's near eye display is so good that Microsoft created their AR device around it. (Their words, not mine) and then claimed credit for creating it.

Microvision CEO says "our AR display is DONE."

Mentions that it fits in RayBans during a recent interview. (If someone can come up with the time-stamp, and use the e-mail form for the moment in the interview, I'll include it here.)

Near eye display guy who was at Microvision and moved to Microsoft, moves to Facebook... on the same day that Facebook announced a deal with Rayban

Then, Facebook, does a big presentation about AUGMENTED REALITY -- the METAVERSE



The AR vertical (In my humble opinion) is for sale.

Facebook would be wise to offer more than 10 billion, or they may lose to a higher offer from Apple, Google, or Microsoft.

(I'd vote my shares to taking the higher offer, unless maybe it's from Microsoft who claimed credit for MicroVision's hard work, Microsoft will have to do WAY better.)

Whoever buys us gets to sell AR displays to the other three for a LONG time.



Joanna Makris has a lot in common with Kelli Stavast

Tuesday, July 20, 2021

The original investing premise for Microvision: Everyone wants a smaller device and a bigger screen

STILL HOLDS TRUE.

Just add some LiDAR into the mix.

The video (I'm about 4 minutes in so far, is a great explanation of AR, and how MicroVision can create more screen real estate.)

AUGMENTED reality Near Eye Displays are worth at least what LiDAR will be worth.

I think a LOT more. 

We are likely in my opinion to get more value in the near term from LiDAR.

What's it worth? 

My recent price target was Minimum of LAZR X 2 Market cap. 


I stand by all my valuation estimates still and I'm happily holding.

APPLE, GOOGLE, AMAZON & MICROSOFT are ALL WORKING ON AUGMENTED REALITY AND SELF-DRIVING VEHICLES....

 Four Companies are all working on two things as "the next big things" Augmented Reality and Self driving vehicles.

Combined they are worth 6.921 Trillion
Together they have 340 billion in cash

If they have a bidding competition for key technology that will give them an edge against the others, how much would they be willing to pay? 

Is 20 Billion too much? (That's about $130/share)

Friday, April 2, 2021

Whats the difference between Niantic and IVAS?

What's 1,000,000,000 / 120,000?

According to my calculations the Niantic heads up we got last week is 8,333 times better than the IVAS news.

There have been more than a billion downloads of Pokemon Go, and the IVAS go-ahead is for 120,000 units.

Pokemon Go is still going strong -- that's Niantic.

Grayson is pretty on top of things.

WATCH THIS BEFORE YOU GO FURTHER -->>>


If you haven't done so, watch this video that he posted last year comparing Digilens to MicroVision. (If it walks like a duck... you know the saying.) HERE
                               

<<<--- WATCH THIS BEFORE YOU GO FURTHER


Don't get me wrong, the IVAS news is FANTASTIC -- it proves the value, proves it works, proves that it's tough enough to fit Military Standards (Look HERE) The dual news flash... wow. 

But the 120,000 units and the volume from that contract isn't the big news.


Volume of production would be the big news. Niantic is that. (Not yet confirmed, I know, but I'm confident it's right.... whether or not you are confident is up to you.)

Pokemon Go information from Business of APPS 

The game launched in July 2016, and became not just a smash hit game, but a global cultural phenomenon; in the summer of 2016, it seemed as if there was no getting away from Pokémon GO. There was even a Pokémon GO Frappuccino! How many games get a drink named after them at Starbucks? How many games inspire 200,000 Spotify playlists?

Pokémon GO Overview

LaunchedJuly 2016
Parent companyNiantic
HQSan Francisco, California
Key peopleTatsuo Nomura (Pokémon GO director), John Hanke (Niantic CEO)

Key Pokémon GO User Statistics

Cumulative Pokémon GO downloads
September 2016500 million
February 2017650 million
July 2017750 million
May 2018800 million
March 20191 billion

If you don't believe in Pokemon, you don't need to. Of course they wouldn't build single-purpose eyewear. You just need to believe in "walking around games" and Niantic is great at it, and so is UNREAL -- who builds their sofware engine for everyone.

Niantic VS IVAS

******************************************************************

You can change the static variables, but the share float doesn't change often, the tax rate is based on Large Tech companies, MicroVision expenditures are a guess -- actually all of this is a guess, but it is a way for you to play with some of the numbers.

When I test IVAS: (My numbers - you do your numbers.)
Augmented Reality Headsets Produced = 120000
How much will MVIS profit from each?  = 1000
% of AR headsets you think will use it? 100
PE when this happens? = 80

When I test Niantic - the consumer market: (My numbers - you do your numbers)
Augmented Reality headsets produced:     250000000 (250 Million)
How much will MVIS profit from each:   10
% of AR headsets you think will use it:     80
PE when this happens:                                80

Use your own numbers, and remember that buyouts happen with substantially different numbers. Calculating Buyout using EBITDA (To set the buyout number here, I'd guess at increases in sales, average the next five years set expenditures and tax rate to zero, and use 5-15 as the PE. -- remember this is a single vertical.)

(These numbers are without commas, because commas will make the calculator break. Javascript is a pain in the ass.)


What's YOUR price target?
(Erase the "*" in the green space and pick your number.)
My baseline is $5 ea / 90% of AR Headsets/ PE of 80

How much will MicroVison will profit from each AR Set?
What % of AR Headsets sold do you think will use it?
What do you think the PE of the stock will be when this happens?

Microvision Shares Outstanding { Static }
Augmented Reality Headsets produced (annual)
Total Microvision expenditures annual { Static }
Effective Tax Rate (%)  { Static }

* * * * * * * * *
Number of AR headsets with MVIS you expect
Total Earnings Before Taxes you expect
Microvision Earnings After Taxes
Microvision Net Earnings Per Share
Microvision Price Per Share that you expect

Thursday, March 4, 2021

Augmented Reality (Mixed Reality) Will be bigger than LiDAR

....as is really popular to say lately, "Do your own Due Diligence... this is only my own opinion. -- which is true."

Mixed reality is going to replace the screen on your smartphone... and your PC screen.

Pay Close attention to this. Microsoft also going consumer.

And... like LiDAR, EVERY MAJOR Tech company is ALSO going full steam ahead into Augmented reality, and MicroVisions NEAR EYE DISPLAY is the best.



Here is the proof that MicroVision is IN Hololens.


It's also here, I started near the spot in the video. If you search that weird abomination prototype, you will see Microvision's logo (3 times?)




How popular will this be as a consumer product? As popular as Pokemon Go in Taiwan (The first mainstream augmented reality game.) 



IF you're on the fence as to when to buy.... the way I see it... now.



Tuesday, February 16, 2021

I am holding and will continue to hold

Some have called, texted, and emailed to ask about it.... so: I am holding and will continue to hold. 

There is some broader market uncertainty, and there should be... I think MVIS should be either largely unscathed by this or benefit from it. (Finding an issue with real growth potential in a market of shrinking issues could benefit us.)

 

The basic benchmark (for the time being) is LAZR.

Microvision's LiDAR is better than theirs, so for the LiDAR vertical we should equal or exceed their price.

12,000,000,000 / 155,000 = $77/share for Microvision. (For LIDAR)

I believe Microvision's near eye display is worth at LEAST what the LiDAR is worth.

$77 * 2 = $154 -- that's my target right now. { This isn't including the interactive laser display, display only, or other cool things MicroVision has in their bag of tricks. }

Eventually the LAZR comparison will break down - not sure what the trigger will be (yet)


Once AR gets renewed attention I believe it will effect MVIS at least as much as the attention that LiDAR has received.

This is all my opinion... I'm doing me. You do you.

Wednesday, February 10, 2021

Microvision in the news

 

MicroVision, Inc. Announces Progress on its Automotive Long Range Lidar A-Sample

REDMOND, Wash., Feb. 10, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- MicroVision, Inc. (NASDAQ: MVIS), a leader in MEMS based laser beam sensing technology, today announced that it has received necessary components and equipment to meet its April milestone of completing A-Samples of its Long Range Lidar Sensor. The Company also announced that it has started outdoor testing of key performance features on its development platform.

“We expect MicroVision’s Long Range Lidar Sensor, (LRL Sensor) which has been in development for over two years, to meet or exceed requirements established by OEMs for autonomous safety and autonomous driving features,” said Sumit Sharma, Chief Executive Officer of MicroVision.

“We expect our 1st generation LRL Sensor to have range of at least 250 meters and the highest resolution at range of any lidar with 340 vertical lines up to 250 meters, 568 vertical lines up to 120 meters and 944 vertical lines up to 60 meters. This equates to 520 points per square degree. Our LRL Sensor will also output velocity of moving objects relative to an ego vehicle across our dynamic field of view in real-time 30 Hz sensor output. This sensor would accelerate development of Level 3 (L3) autonomous safety and Level 4 (L4) autonomous driving features that are important to potential customers and interested parties.”

“I am proud of the intense dedication of our team and the strong support from our global suppliers as we remain on track to have A-Samples ready in April. We believe our LRL Sensor offers two sustainable strategic advantages to potential customers and parties interested in strategic alternatives. We expect the capability of our LRL Sensor to meet or exceed OEM requirements, based on technology we have scaled multiple times over the last decade, as being a very strong strategic advantage. Additionally, our sensor being designed on scalable silicon wafer and laser diode technologies will be capable of achieving scale at costs below $1,000 ASP, a key price point expected for commercial success,” added Sharma.

Friday, January 22, 2021

To simplify even further...

 Four Companies are all working on two things as "the next big things" Augmented Reality and Self driving vehicles.

Combined they are worth 6.921 Trillion
Together they have 340 billion in cash

If they have a bidding competition for key technology that will give them an edge against the others, how much would they be willing to pay? is 20 Billion too much?

Thursday, January 21, 2021

But.... But what if Microvision gets so expensive that they won't pay it?

 Ha! -- interesting FUD, but ridiculous.

Recently I suggested 10 Billion for LiDAR and 10 Billion for Near Eye display. 20 Billion.

Let's look at the big tech companies: (Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft) They're ALL looking at self-driving cars. They're all looking at Augmented reality. They would all like to be leaders in one or both, and one company has the best specs in both. (MicroVision)

 

Apple Self Driving Car

Amazon Self Driving Car 

Google Self Driving Car 

Microsoft Self Driving Car


Apple Augmented Reality

Amazon Augmented Reality 

Google Augmented Reality 

Microsoft Augmented Reality 

 

All have market caps north of a Trillion dollars, and huge cash reserves (1.21.2021 - source, Yahoo Finance.)

Apple Market Cap: $2,270,000,000,000      -- Cash on hand: 91 Billion

Amazon Market Cap: $1,663,000,000,000    -- Cash on hand: 68 Billion

Google Market Cap: $1,300,000,000,000      -- Cash on Hand: 132 Billion

Microsoft Market Cap: $1,686,000,000,000  -- Cash on Hand: 138 Billion

They could pay way more than my "crazy" price target with jingle money and hardly notice.....

Thursday, January 14, 2021

Keeping it REALLY Simple.

 Benchmark --- LAZR  -- Upstart LiDAR company.

Approximate Valuation: 10 Billion. (MicroVision's LiDAR is better)

At the same value: 10 Billion / 152 Million = $66



I consider the near eye display to be worth MORE than the LiDAR -- it certainly I think will be at least as widely used. Now that we have a value for LiDAR, I'm significantly adjusting my guess on NED -- I'm keeping my guess simple.

Market Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) is likely more important than fundamentals... And the fundamentals here are REALLY good.

Give it a comparable valuation:

$66 + $66 = $132


Review previous Value Posts

Value LiDAR

The Beats Exercise 

Near Eye Display

Friday, September 11, 2020

Saturday, August 22, 2020

Easter Egg Patents

Thanks s2upid! & Mark

Retrieved from Reddit -- there are enough smart and dedicated people posting information there that I can't keep up. (and I have other things to do.) Occasionally there's a serious GEM posted there. This is one.


The "EasterEgg" refers to one of the patents listed in the most recent MicroVision videos (last post) mentioned by CEO Sumit Sharma during the last "Fireside Chat" (recounted here)



AND FACEBOOK


Wednesday, July 22, 2020

Value Question: Lidar

Thanks Snowboard for the assist! 

As always, I show my work... (and I believe the exercise involved in finding a method is more important than the result.) This is all my own work, this is an exercise, Im not giving any investing advice, do you own homework, (etc.)

Coming up with a concrete number here is very difficult. There is little if any price/value history on LiDAR, and much of what is there is from experimental usage.

This is probably the most valuable part of the company -- The CEO is there because of LiDAR.


Coming up with any numbers here is difficult. Lots of guesswork  (I'm admitting it, the best we can get is a SWAG.)


A few assorted facts:
  • All LiDAR will be using class 1 lasers. (Even though you can't see infrared laser light, stronger than class one could still damage eyes, and there is no blink reflex for infrared light.)
  • MicroVision's target is 20,000,000 points per second, that's a lot of points. You can count hairs on people with that.
  • The significant limiting factor on range is the Speed of light. (see chart below)

A few main areas of likely use: (There are more, like SLAM, scanning and 3D printing... )
  • Gesture Control
  • Security
  • Adas
Gesture control:
This could be huge....
...but after wrestling with this off and on for days, I really can't come up with a defensible guess on it.

The potential is enormous though. You could, for example build a new home that has no wall switches at all, and have anything you want controlled by gesture. (Turn on the lights, raise or lower the blinds, adjust the temperature, etc.) With one sensor and one wire instead of multiple switches and needing to get up to do it.

I could come up with something, but the SWAG would emphasize the wild-ass part of it. After already exerting considerable effort in this direction, I've determined that further effort will not result in a good and measurable estimate of a future reality.


No Guess 

Security

Subscriptions + Hardware.

I've seen MVIS's LiDAR in action at a shareholder meeting. It can recognize people. This has been described on MicroVision's conference calls, and has been described with significant additional safety and convenience features.

  • This could identify individual people
  • Can distinguish between pets and people (or YOUR pet and the neighbors pet)
  • Can distinguish between normal behaviors and strange things that could be of concern
  • Could save face-scans of intruders and allow intruders to be identified later
Home Security Subscribers -- Approximately 10 Million last year

Would a MicroVision LiDAR improve a Home Security system setup? Would it improve the services one of those companies can provide?  

I'm a definitive yes on this.


I'll assume that 25% would like and pay for the capabilities, and they could perhaps add 25% of subscriptions. (Identifying people in the home would be huge, along with other benefits.) At an approximate $75/month additional to another subscription with 1/3 of that credited directly to the ability of the MicroVision tech. (Still a SWAG, remember.)


If yes, 25 * 5,000,000 = 125Million per month. = 1.5 Billion per year. Over a 5 year window you could run that out to 7.5 Billion ($53/share)

Like Beats, selling the subscription is the money center.


ADAS

What is the value of preventing accidents? It's huge in the amount saved in damage and life.

Will your car insurance rate change with ADAS

If you're using a self-driving car and it crashes, who's fault will that be? -- the company that programmed it and designed the system. (They'll obviously put a self-testing system in place -- and it won't move unless their system is working... or you'll have to disconnect it and take responsibility yourself.)

Car insurance premiums could drop by as much as $25 billion, or 12.5% of the total market, by 2035 thanks to the rollout of autonomous vehicles, consulting firm Accenture noted in its report.

Accenture calls it an $81 Billion opportunity. (If you give MVIS a 5% share of that number is $4 Billion or $28/share)

Government requirement. (Something small, cheap easy to install, high resolution is a GOOD thing to have in this market.)

What is the value of a self driving vehicle.
What is the value of a vehicle that is mostly ding-and dent proof?

American Family Insurance: Discounts for:

Forward Collision Warning

This car safety feature tracks a vehicle’s speed and compares it to the vehicle ahead. If the distance is closing too quickly, the system warns the driver to slow down through a visual alert, audible warning, or combination of the two. This warning gives drivers time to brake and avoid a collision.

Automatic Emergency Braking

If the driver doesn’t respond to the forward collision warning, some vehicles also have automatic emergency braking. This car safety feature automatically applies the brakes to slow or even stop the vehicle. Depending on your speed, automatic emergency braking can reduce the severity of a crash or even prevent it completely.

(AT Consumer Reports)


Lane Departure Warning and Lane Keep Assist

The lane departure warning system uses cameras to see road markings. If a driver drifts out of the lane without signaling, then this feature issues an audible or visual warning so the driver can steer the car back into its lane. Some systems also vibrate the driver’s seat or steering wheel to get the driver’s attention. Working along with lane departure warning on some cars is lane keep assist. This will gently nudge the steering wheel in the correct direction to help the driver stay in his lane.

Blind Spot Detection and Rear Cross Traffic Alert

When there’s a vehicle in the blind spot, this car safety feature alerts the driver with an audible or visual warning. Some systems issue a warning only if a car is in your blind spot when you use your turn signal while other systems activate a visual alert any time a car is in the blind spot, even if you’re not signaling to turn. Rear cross traffic alert is another system to help you see what you might miss. When the car is in reverse, it monitors traffic about to drive behind the vehicle and warns the driver of any oncoming cars.

SLAM Simultaneous Localization and Mapping

When robot's start moving among us, this will be very important.

This could have enormous impact in tool and die, manufacturing, etc, but it's very difficult to put a number to it. (Just making sure your tool doesn't crash into something it shouldn't this could be big.

Could heavy equipment scan the area for fragile items and LiDAR in concert with onboard software ensure that this equipment doesn't move anything it shouldn't? Probably yes, probably would save a lot. (Could a crane operator, for example move loads MUCH faster with much more confidence?)

No history --- no guess... but someone out there has a value for this..

Scanning / 3D printing

No guess.... this is another one of those items that could be a very big market, or very small... no way to know yet.

No guess. (There is value for this too.)

The RANGE AND RESOLUTION CHART


Included because it's interesting -- and because it provides understandings of important limitations.

The laser in a lidar must be class 1 (brighter could still damage eyes, even though the light can't be seen)

Range and resolution are limited by the speed of light.

I produced the spreadsheet below after listening to a bunch of engineers at a STM conference argue about LiDAR range. They spent some time arguing that the speed of light was a limiting factor. Since it's the fastest thing, I did this to understand that argument.

For each pixel of resolution, the light must leave the device, bounce off the object at the end, and return to the source.


Constants
All of this is a HARD LIMIT, not of the hardware, but a hard limit based on the speed of light.
ConstantValueScaleName
Light Second299,792,458meters/secLightSec
720P921,600PixelsLowHD

Lightsec div PS
1080P2,073,600PixelsHD
Points / SecondRange in METERS
Refresh60HertzRefreshHD X Hertz124,416,0002.41

Adjusting the Refresh rate (scans per second) changes the effective range (Using all the pixels of that standard resolution.) For 60 Hertz, we could use a number less than 60hz to account for error-rates, etc.
Low HD X Hertz55,296,0005.42

for points per second it only requires the number of points and the speed of light to find the distance.
20,000,00014.99
10,000,00029.98
5,000,00059.96
1,000,000299.79
These range numbers assume 60hz






Monday, June 29, 2020

The Value Question: Near Eye Display

NEAR EYE DISPLAY

The Value of MicroVision to it's share holders is going to be a portion of the total value it provides to people.... what will that be?

The Value of Use.. 
"I read a study that measured the efficiency of locomotion for various species on the planet. The condor used the least energy to move a kilometer. Humans came in with a rather unimpressive showing about a third of the way down the list....That didn't look so good, but then someone at Scientific American had the insight to test the efficiency of locomotion for a man on a bicycle and a man on a bicycle blew the condor away. That's what a computer is to me: the computer is the most remarkable tool that we've ever come up with. It's the equivalent of a bicycle for our minds."
                                                                                 --- Steve Jobs


The Near Eye display will allow us to use that bicycle for our minds everywhere we go, everywhere we are, and with everything we do. Increasing efficiency, improving productivity. Allowing creativity to be harnessed much more easily, errors to be found and corrected earlier.

The benefits of a PC will no longer limited to a desktop, laptop, or something we have to sit down and focus on. It could be there all the while we are doing.

Kipman wasn't lying when he said they built that new game-changing device around the display that they... er... (MICROVISION) invented... While I think they're scoundrels for claiming credit for the display it is a testament to how amazing it is.

Taqtile's motto is "Everyone is an expert."  That illustrates the value very well.

Taqtile

My visit to Taqtile:

making people who don't know act as though they know. Giving them a knowledge advantage immediately. (You can walk into a facility and perform processes recorded by an expert. You don't have to be the expert to do it.)
Particularly important is Knowledge Capture

The results of this go directly to the bottom line and the efficiency improvements companies have recorded with Hololens are stunning. (a reliable 10% improvement is the stuff of wet dreams. They're getting 90% improvement.) Efficiency improvement

WHO IS WORKING WITH HOLOLENS?


King County Wastewater Treatment


Will it GAME?
Do not forget Pokemon Go. Games are HUGE, and I think the effort to come up with games for this will be huge... do not forget that there was a special introduction of a gaming company at one of the Hololens presentations.





Gaming? Microsoft bought Minecraft, has it for Hololens... and it's really popular.

Minecraft Second Most Popular Game Ever


How many companies to make AR devices using MicroVision's display?

Well, we know Microsoft, Apple, Google, Magic Leap, Facebook, and probably the big computer makers (Dell, Lenovo, Sony, Acer, etc.) will all want in on Augmented Reality.

(Remember, Kipman said "anyone can make their own hololens" and Trimble IS making their own Hololens.)

Apple is doing it --- there are enough patents and leaks to show this. Some of what they are doing is in the open with their "AR Kit." 

Google Had "Glass"

Magic Leap is AR (associated with Google)

I'm nearly certain that Hololens1 and Magic Leap used the same display.

Facebook has AR/VR  -- And also has a substantial facility right up the road from MicroVision HQ. It is unmarked and apparently. secret. (There is nothing on the outside that says "Facebook," nothing on any vehicle that brags about Facebook, no people wearing anything labeled with it can be seen outside. -- I took a picture of the front door a couple of years ago, and my phone did ask me if I wanted to tag the picture I took at Oculus.

Behind it is another facility that is part of Microsoft, and there is a shuttle running between the two campuses.

They will all need the best near-eye display they can get.
There is nothing better yet on the horizon that looks like it will be serviceable. When that appears, it may still be years before it's usable and possible to manufacture in quantity.

A side-note here. We may look at a device and think that it looks simple -- the good things are. MicroVision's core tech, which is essentially a vibrating mirror, looks really simple. Getting it to work as it has to -- and then also assembling the components is anything but simple. Making the sub-components-- the mirror, the magnets, etc., to the precision required is not a simple process. Developing a reliable way to do this in quantity had to be extraordinarily difficult and time consuming. This has made it difficult in the past for holders of MicroVision -- because we were waiting, and it seemed like nothing was happening. This is now a hurdle that MicroVision has cleared. Any potential competing technology has yet to clear this hurdle, and it's a significant one. The distance between prototype and released product is huge.


What are the "killer" applications?

An important question with any new technology. (If you have the first fax machine -- it's cool but useless... there has to be something to DO with it.)

This should not be a problem with AR.

Personal computers were around prior to the early 1980's. They were basically toys, things to tinker with, until the killer app, arrived.
In marketing terminology, a killer application (commonly shortened to killer app) is any computer program or software that is so necessary or desirable that it proves the core value of some larger technology, such as computer hardware, a video game console, software, a programming language, a software platform, or an operating system.[1] In other words, consumers would buy the (usually expensive) hardware just to run that application. A killer app can substantially increase sales of the platform on which it runs.[2][3]
For the PC the killer application was the spreadsheet. It took what could be an astonishingly tedious task (prone to errors) and made it happen in a twinkle. (No time to explain it in detail here, but trust me and check here: Visicalc BBC)

After the arrival of the spreadsheet, the PC went crazy.

The killer app for Hololens?

There are several already. Trimble has one - Overlay of design in the physical world.  This increases efficiency in construction hugely and doesn't take a lot of imagination to see how it would. It will save a lot of time and therefore a lot of money. Problems will become apparent more quickly, be solved sooner, and best -- they'll be solved while they're potential problems instead of real ones.


"Benefits every industry that deals with 3D spatial data." Nearly everything we deal with is "3D." -- so the appeal is broad.



Knowledge Capture. This can be used already, and it's huge. You don't need to "train" someone for a job, you have your smartest person do it.... and those who come after can copy. (Everyone's an expert.)

What I am looking forward to most, is being able to learn languages.

An endlessly patient teacher that scans the environment and labels everything in the target language? Sign me up.


How big will the use of Augmented Reality Be?

Microsoft itself said that Hololens would be bigger than the PC.

Microsoft's Stock was worth about $0.09 in 1986; 10 years later in 1996 it was worth $9.00 (A 9,900% Gain.) If we consider Microsoft until the introduction of the X-Box (2001) You get about $30/share (A 33,000% Gain) -- That's perspective on "how big can augmented reality be."

The PC is huge, because it's nearly ubiquitous. It's everywhere. Hololens will be more everywhere, because it can be 'more everywhere' -- not anchored to a desk, table or lap. If you want to use a PC you have to look away from whatever else might be around and focus on the PC... not so with hololens.

In 1976 the number of PCS being used in the US was effectively zero, Apple showed up then and sold some. Then Radio Shack hat the TSR-80 --- by the year 2000 PCs were literally everywhere. They continue to get better.

How much will they earn? 

(and how much will someone pay for those earnings?)

Any answer to this question is guesswork. The value will be significant, because the value it brings to the user will be significant.

There is no good way to come up with this number... {I readily admit that this is guesswork. You are reading guesses. Don't make your decisions based on my guesswork, base your decisions on your own guesswork. If you have a solid critique or method of guessing that you think is better than mine, I'd be happy to read, consider and possibly post it too.... if we get enough people working on it, we might actually arrive at a good guess.

 To do this, I'm going to plop some possibly numbers into the Personal Computer "killer application" and see where the numbers lead.

I like to come up with a couple of frameworks of thinking (always willing to throw an unworkable framework out) and sort of come up with a range. (And after wrestling with this for quite some time, have decided to rely on the fairly basic model below. --- it could be wildly off... I admit that, but it involves the least guessing.)

Method 1 (I claim no accuracy, this is a framework.)

  • $70 Billion Euros for the next four years --- my SWAG then is $100 billion in the next FIVE years, which is my preferred time horizon. (since a euro is 1.1 USD I'll consider them equivalent.)
  • Assume that a display would account for about 10% of the price of the computer. ($900 computer, $900 software + $200 for a monitor) 
  • Use 10% of the total AR market for display
  • Use 1/2 of the 10% as the MicroVision share. 
 $100 Billion * .1 =$10 Billion *.5 = $5Billion.

Using this method my SWAG(scientific wild-ass guess) is $5Billion (Divide into the 140 million shares = $35/share (To be conservative, cut it in half again) = $17/share (This vertical)

After spending some time thinking about it, that's the only guess I'm willing to make here... it's taking an "accepted number" and extrapolating. Trying to anticipate the market with all its variables is a daunting task, and probably not worth the effort, because EACH stage is guess work. I could be off by miles already -- but I think the guess is reasonable and the theory sound.

Some of the basis I'm using came from the video below. (It says $70 Billion in the next four years)


Errors happen all the time with data... they happen even more with speculative future-anticipating  (I know this) Read this for some background: I'm skeptical of Data

 

Quick Summary so far:

Interactive Display SWAG = $14
Near Eye Display SWAG   = $17-35
LiDAR............................... = ?
Display only.......................= ?
                                            = $31-49

Wednesday, June 17, 2020

The Value Question: Part 1 -- Interactive Display.

I have stuff to do so I need to break this one up.

If MicroVision is for sale, it's a pretty good idea for the shareholders to get an idea of what it's worth. (This is all MY opinion, and I'm not making any recommendations.)

Interactive Display:

This was DELAYED, not destroyed.

From the November 6 Conference Call:

"Our activities related to our Interactive Display solutions resulted in a major step forward during the past few months as customer due diligence work has now led to negotiations for component purchase agreement that we aim to complete this quarter fora targeted launch of our interactive display module in 2020. As customer products come to market, we expect our company revenues could reach $100 million over a 12-month period, following product launches that we expect to start in the second half of 2020"
I have my reasons for believing that this customer is AMAZON. ($AMZN)
The Value question:

Company sale criteria (5x IBITDA)  If it's the only income and is expected to continue at this rate, then this vertical would be worth $500,000,000 (or $3.75/Share)

Or.....

100 million per year / # shares * PE ratio

100,000,000 / 140,000,000 = $0.71/share in earnings. (Yes, I know there are expenses that will have an effect.)

PE 20 (20*.71) = $14.20/share
PE 30 (30*.71) = $21.30/share

We don't need to take that higher.... whatever the case I think for this vertical the range is huge... something possibly less than $3.75 to somewhere north of $21.

Where it ends up, depends on the anticipated size of the market.

Given the amazing potential of "The Internet of Things" this could be significantly bigger than many of us believe. (I doubt it will be smaller.) My own theory is that everything that uses a powerful computer benefits from its own screen. (Doom on Thermostat)

The company knows a LOT more than I do.

Remember this is for one vertical, and probably the smallest one.

Barring significant interruptions, I'll be working through the rest of the verticals this week.
Hat tip to KYinvestor.
 


Tuesday, May 19, 2020

Things getting interesting...

I have zero idea how much weight to give anything like this. Maybe a lot, maybe none. But I'm sure there is considerable interest in the technology this little company has created.



Hat-tip to "Qlfang"

Reddit Reference

Google Translate Link

Microsoft acquires laser sensing company MicroVision to deepen vehicle technology layout

05-18 15:10 Source: Gasgoo 0 comments
  According to foreign media reports, Microsoft Recently announced the acquisition of laser sensing and projection technology company MicroVision, which has a large number of patents related to laser beam scanning projection and sensing.
  Previously, Microsoft had worked with the company to use the MicroVision MEMS engine in HoloLens 2 devices. The acquisition Microsoft may be concerned MicroVision broader knowledge property . Currently, MicroVision is cooperating with some important automobile manufacturers to provide laser sensor solutions for autonomous vehicle technology.
  MicroVision has developed laser scanning technology for projection, 3D sensing, and image capture. Its display technology uses micro-electromechanical system (MEMS) scanning mirrors and lasers, photons, and electrons to project or capture images. The company's products are mainly licensed to OEMs , such as SonyAnd STMicroelectronics. MicroVision has also developed PicoP scanning technology, which is an ultra-miniature sensing and projection solution based on the company's laser beam scanning method. MicroVision's platform approach means that its technology can be widely used.
  All along, Microsoft has been looking for ways to enter the automotive technology market . In September 2019, Microsoft announced the Connected Car Platform (MCVP). The platform is said to be an evolving system that auto companies can use to implement multiple services in their vehicles , including in-car experience, autonomous driving, advanced navigation, user interaction and insight, telematics and prediction services, and Connect and OTA.
  In the 2019 MCVP white paper , Microsoft shared its connected car vision, "MCVP provides a consistent technical infrastructure and integrates vehicle configuration and solutions into a common data source through secure and scalable data ingestion. the platform, automotive manufacturers and partners can use the vehicle telemetry , create customized, innovative, for the consumer 's appreciation of the vehicle and cloud services, including telemetry, navigation, goods and services , etc. in addition, MCVP not only for the ride Used cars can also be applied to commercial and industrial vehicles, including cars, trucks, cranes, ships and drones. "
  It is worth noting that MCVP is not an operating system , but the foundation of the platform created by OEM partners, providing partners with a complete cloud-based backend. However, MCVP will allow Microsoft to seamlessly integrate services such as Skype, Office 365 and Dynamics into in-vehicle systems. At present, the platform has been adopted by TomTom, LG, Volkswagen and other companies.
(Original title: Microsoft acquires laser sensor company MicroVision to deepen vehicle technology layout)

Friday, January 3, 2020

Do not doubt the coming enormous popularity of Augmented Reality

....and it will get people out and about. This kind of thing will be enormously popular, far beyond enterprise use.

...and there are a lot of relationships in this business... and they make for an interesting and tangled web; some of it purposeful, some incidental.

Now this was apparently made by an independent developer, but there are LOTS of independent developers working on stuff that will be this cool.Ian Charnas


Hack-A-Day





"Mario Kart[a] is a series of go-kart-style racing video games developed and published by Nintendo as spin-offs from its trademark Super Mario series. The first in the series, Super Mario Kart, was launched in 1992 on the Super Nintendo Entertainment System to critical and commercial success.[1]

 With six Mario Kart games released on home consoles, three on portable handheld consoles, four arcade games co-developed with Namco and one for mobile phones, the Mario Kart series includes a total of fourteen entries. The latest game in the main series, Mario Kart Tour, was released on iOS and Android in September 2019. The series has sold over 100 million copies worldwide to date. "


If you like Breadcrumbs, this is also a Nintendo Product, and Slade Gorton on the MVIS board has a relationship with Nintendo... He got Nintendo involved with the Seattle Mariners.... and Nintendo and Microsoft know each other...

The Man who Saved the Mariners Q 13 Fox News

"By now, the main story has been well documented: Mariners owner Jeff Smulyan putting the team up for sale in 1991, and Senator Slade Gorton saving the day, approaching Nintendo, which offered to buy the team - then organizing a group of local investors to join as partners."

Map