Peter's MVIS Blog: Near Eye displays

Showing posts with label Near Eye displays. Show all posts

Friday, April 2, 2021

Whats the difference between Niantic and IVAS?

What's 1,000,000,000 / 120,000?

According to my calculations the Niantic heads up we got last week is 8,333 times better than the IVAS news.

There have been more than a billion downloads of Pokemon Go, and the IVAS go-ahead is for 120,000 units.

Pokemon Go is still going strong -- that's Niantic.

Grayson is pretty on top of things.

WATCH THIS BEFORE YOU GO FURTHER -->>>

If you haven't done so, watch this video that he posted last year comparing Digilens to MicroVision. (If it walks like a duck... you know the saying.) HERE

<<<--- WATCH THIS BEFORE YOU GO FURTHER

Don't get me wrong, the IVAS news is FANTASTIC -- it proves the value, proves it works, proves that it's tough enough to fit Military Standards (Look HERE) The dual news flash... wow.

But the 120,000 units and the volume from that contract isn't the big news.

Volume of production would be the big news. Niantic is that. (Not yet confirmed, I know, but I'm confident it's right.... whether or not you are confident is up to you.)

Pokemon Go information from Business of APPS

The game launched in July 2016, and became not just a smash hit game, but a global cultural phenomenon; in the summer of 2016, it seemed as if there was no getting away from Pokémon GO. There was even a Pokémon GO Frappuccino! How many games get a drink named after them at Starbucks? How many games inspire 200,000 Spotify playlists?

Pokémon GO Overview

Launched	July 2016
Parent company	Niantic
HQ	San Francisco, California
Key people	Tatsuo Nomura (Pokémon GO director), John Hanke (Niantic CEO)

Key Pokémon GO User Statistics

*Cumulative Pokémon GO* downloads**
September 2016	500 million
February 2017	650 million
July 2017	750 million
May 2018	800 million
March 2019	1 billion

If you don't believe in Pokemon, you don't need to. Of course they wouldn't build single-purpose eyewear. You just need to believe in "walking around games" and Niantic is great at it, and so is UNREAL -- who builds their sofware engine for everyone.

Niantic VS IVAS

******************************************************************

You can change the static variables, but the share float doesn't change often, the tax rate is based on Large Tech companies, MicroVision expenditures are a guess -- actually all of this is a guess, but it is a way for you to play with some of the numbers.

When I test IVAS: (My numbers - you do your numbers.)
Augmented Reality Headsets Produced = 120000
How much will MVIS profit from each? = 1000
% of AR headsets you think will use it? 100
PE when this happens? = 80

When I test Niantic - the consumer market: (My numbers - you do your numbers)
Augmented Reality headsets produced:     250000000 (250 Million)
How much will MVIS profit from each:   10
% of AR headsets you think will use it:     80
PE when this happens:                                80

Use your own numbers, and remember that buyouts happen with substantially different numbers. Calculating Buyout using EBITDA (To set the buyout number here, I'd guess at increases in sales, average the next five years set expenditures and tax rate to zero, and use 5-15 as the PE. -- remember this is a single vertical.)

(These numbers are without commas, because commas will make the calculator break. Javascript is a pain in the ass.)

What's YOUR price target? (Erase the "*" in the green space and pick your number.) My baseline is $5 ea / 90% of AR Headsets/ PE of 80
How much will MicroVison will profit from each AR Set?
What % of AR Headsets sold do you think will use it?
What do you think the PE of the stock will be when this happens?

Microvision Shares Outstanding { Static }
Augmented Reality Headsets produced (annual)
Total Microvision expenditures annual { Static }
Effective Tax Rate (%) { Static }

* * * * * * * * *
Number of AR headsets with MVIS you expect
Total Earnings Before Taxes you expect
Microvision Earnings After Taxes
Microvision Net Earnings Per Share
Microvision Price Per Share that you expect

Friday, May 3, 2019

3D Computing -- the big picture

Big picture: 3D computing is going to improve productivity -- so it's going to take over computing.

This is going to be bigger than the personal computer.

It's transforming shipbuilding --like a ship, such an industry isn't easy to turn. This isn't an improvement of a single aspect of the process, but a transformation of the process itself -- to "increase efficiency, safety and affordability."

Microvision is at the leading edge of laser scanning and AR displays.

When you're invested in something that improves efficiency, increases safety, and makes things more affordable, you shouldn't have too many worries.

SeaPowerMagazine

NEWPORT NEWS, Va. — Huntington Ingalls Industries’ Newport News Shipbuilding division has been named a recipient of a 2019 CIO 100 Award for adopting business-aligned IT strategies during its integration of modern technologies into shipbuilding. The ongoing initiative, known as Integrated Digital Shipbuilding (iDS), is transforming the way ships are being designed and built.

The annual awards program, sponsored by IDG’s CIO magazine and the CIO Executive Council, celebrates organizations that are using IT in innovative ways to deliver business value, optimize business processes, enable growth or improve relationships with customers.

Newport News is being recognized for its use of technology business management strategies to bolster IT cost transparency and build trust, which helped the company to embrace a digital-first mindset in adopting leading-edge technologies.

Since the company’s digital transformation began two years ago, Newport News has introduced laser scanning, augmented reality, modeling and simulation, and additive manufacturing into processes to increase efficiency, safety and affordability. The digital shipbuilding efforts also include transitioning from traditional two-dimensional paper-based instructions — the company’s primary method for conveying design data for more than a century — to digital formats. The company currently is developing digital work packages for the aircraft carrier Enterprise (CVN 80), which will be the first ship built completely paperless, and preparing to go digital with the new class of ballistic submarines, the Columbia class.

“Digital shipbuilding is the largest transformative initiative, digital or otherwise, that Newport News has embarked upon since switching from diesel to nuclear-powered aircraft carriers in the 1960s,” said Bharat Amin, Newport News’ vice president and chief information officer. “I feel proud of my team for helping to drive change and empowering shipbuilders with the tools to build today’s warships with tomorrow’s technology. It’s an exciting time to work in IT and at HII.”

The company will be recognized at the CIO 100 Symposium and Awards Ceremony on Aug. 21 in Colorado.

Wednesday, February 6, 2019

Microsoft AR Recent Patent

Joe sent an article this morning with a couple of interesting pictures from a recent Microsoft patent.

The glasses at the top are Osterhaut glasses. (A version after what I managed to try.) The amount of hardware they had resting on your nose was too much for comfort.

This article also features some interesting interface devices, like a bracelet and rings. (As cool as the glasses might be, we're probably not going to want to make gestures in groups of people to control our glasses, but fiddling with a ring or wrist controller wouldn't make anyone feel too weird.)

ONMSFT

Beyond shrinking the overall size of HoloLens, Microsoft’s patent also details new multi-use cases for use of AR outside of the previous work, lab, warehouse and home showcases the company used to highlight.

In this latest patent filing, Microsoft developers are sorta of resurrecting the spirit of Google Glass in corner mounted AR information but the company is also aiming to introduce additional wearables such as smart rings that should help with navigating augmented UI’s and information.

Saturday, February 2, 2019

Augmented Reality Improves your world

Virtual reality is cool, but it isolates you. Augmented reality improves your world.

NYMag.com (Thanks Joe D!)

Put another way, VR increasingly seems like the original Nintendo — an amazing combination of hardware and software that fundamentally changed how many people spent their freetime. But AR, with its ability to be both ubiquitous and useful, seems more and more like the smartphone, a combination of hardware and software that changed how we lived.

Sunday, January 27, 2019

VR used for training is saving lives and money.

It's been a ridiculously busy couple of weeks....

It looks like Hololens will get an announcement at MWC.

...and Hololens... Augmented reality is going to be much more useful than VR, will make training better, and improve human performance in obvious and measurable ways.

I think it will take people out of their phones and put them back with each other -- and make them better at doing actual things.

It will also have unintended negative consequences -- and positive outcome.

thx Joe.

(Things should be fairly calm around here for a couple of weeks.)

Fast forward to about 4:00 for good stuff about Hololens, but the whole video is worth your time.

Virtual reality training by companies like Microsoft is saving lives, millions of dollars, and ensuring the future of mixed reality from CNBC.

CNBC -- Use of AR & VR for industry and business

Now, VR is widely used to train employees at major companies like Walmart and Chevron. At Tyson Foods, VR safety training reduced injuries and illnesses by 20 percent.

It's also saving these companies millions of dollars, and bringing profits back to creators of VR headsets and software.

Friday, November 16, 2018

History, Hololens and SLAM

Simultaneous Localization and Mapping -- An application for CONSUMER LiDAR.

Sure, you can use Hololens to view something programmed, and to design something new... but if you want to include something that already exists --- Laser scanning is where to go. (20 million points per second - 30 meters)

So, for education, training and collecting data SLAM with MVIS consumer LiDAR.

To experience it.... Near eye displays.... Microvision is there too.

When I look at this tech, instead of getting less enthusiastic about it, I get MORE enthusiastic about it, because it will revolutionize education, and make the people who use it much more productive.

40 years ago a lot of people wondered why people would want a computer in their home. There won't be any wondering about why people will want this and very few people have heard of this so far.

Holoforge

French History at Geekwire.

Regarding SLAM GEO SLAM

E-mailed these guys about getting one of their units last year and they quoted a price of $34,000 and then you'd still need to purchase processing from them. I expect MicroVision's LiDAR to appear at an extreme discount to that price.

Monday, November 12, 2018

Hololens

This is going to be way huger than we think. This is making significant strides in enterprise applications while being nearly unheard of among the general public.

The other day I met someone who works for Thyssenkrupp. I mentioned a technology I follow that they're using and she immediately said "Hololens." It's Utility is well known.

I have 95% + Confidence, Microvision is in a coming significant release of this product. (And the product will "take the world by storm.")

Techspective

This week Microsoft had an update for their HoloLens technology which, I think, currently has the best shot at defining one of the major evolutionary pivots for personal computers. Right now, it reminds me a lot of the early days of the PC market. But instead of replacing calculators, typewriters, mainframe computers, and rolodexes this technology is replacing manuals, remote trainers, tablets, and wearable PCs.

What is particularly fascinating given how slow PCs came into hospitals, is that the HoloLens was just certified for medical procedures. This may help address my fear of hospitals by preventing problems like that poor woman that recently went in for back surgery and came out with one less Kidney (surprisingly she wasn’t particularly thankful).
But much like the PC evolved into a far more comprehensive tool, I expect HoloLens (and augmented reality (AR) in general) to evolve as well—not only in hardware (I’m really looking forward to seeing HoloLens 2 next year) but in how and where it is used. You see, I can foresee a time when we might put this thing on in the morning and not take it off until right before we go to sleep (if then).

Monday, September 24, 2018

Magic Leap, Hololens & the US Army

Often big tech advances (like the internet itself) begins as a military project, then goes consumer.
Near eye display likely little different, MicroVision was working on this stuff a long time ago.

HindustanTimes

Magic Leap Inc. is pushing to land a contract with the U.S. Army to build augmented-reality devices for soldiers to use on combat missions, according to government documents and interviews with people familiar with the process.The contract, which could eventually lead to the military purchasing over 100,000 headsets as part of a program whose total cost could exceed$500 million, is intended to“increase lethality by enhancing the ability to detect, decide and engage before the enemy,” according to an Army description of the program .A large government contract could alter the course of the highest-profile startup working on augmented reality, at a time when prospects to produce a consumer device remain uncertain.

Building tools to make soldiers more deadly is a far cry from the nascent consumer market for augmented reality. But the army’s program has also drawn interest from Microsoft Corp., whose HoloLens is Magic Leap’s main rival.The commercial-grade versions of both devices still face significant technological hurdles, and its not clear the companies can fulfill the army’s technical requirements. If recent history is any guide, a large military contract is also sure to be controversial within the companies.

Magic Leap declined to comment. Microsoft confirmed it had attended a meeting in which officials from the Army met with potential bidders. The Army’s Contracting Command is currently reviewing proposals, said Ed Worley, a spokesman.

Monday, July 16, 2018

Hololens Demos

Easier to see Hololens now than ever.

Road to VR

They don't do mass demos without purpose, and this kind of thing usually a precursor to product release.

I'm confident that Microvision will have displays in future iterations of Hololens, simply because Microvision's near eye display is the BEST one out there.

There is probably a place near you.

Copied the links, because pages like this can sometimes disappear.
I'll be checking the location closest to me to get an idea if the display is noticeably different from the one I already tried.

Locations where you can Schedule a demo