It's there, but not there.

To the largest part of the market(where the most money is moved,) the idea that Microsoft will make any headway with Hololens is speculative.

I expect we'd hear this if we asked them about it: "We've heard something about it, and saw something once, and... show me. Until then I have paying customers who want to get into UBER."

Microsoft hasn't really made any efforts to move it into the mass market yet.

If you go to their store and look up devices, it's not even listed. (VR and virtual reality are listed) but then you end up on the splash screen below... where Hololens will appear...second -- after Facebook's Oculus Rift. 

Hololens is there, but not really there. If you're going out of your way to find it, you can find it. If you just wait for it to jump in front of you... it's not going to happen. 

In spite of all of the glowing reviews - amazing results and demonstrations - and the huge Military contract for the device, the most popular video about it on YouTube is about.... Minecraft. (Has less than 5 million views... ) The amazing demonstrations of it in use improving productivity are way down the list. (They don't need YouTube to get the word out to people who will employ it that way.)

The idea that Microvision is in the Hololens is secondary speculation. Which in my view both painful and awesome.

We do not have definitive proof that MicroVision's tech is in the Hololens, but there's enough evidence that it could win the court case, and the appeals.

Meanwhile, there are 1.7 billion shares of UBER, trading at $33. It has a market cap of 57 Billion, and loses $3 per share. --- but it's popular, and people like to throw their money into it.

Given the behavior of Microsoft around Hololens.... when they do their media blitz they will get it a lot of attention... and the part of the market where the most money is moved will notice.

Microsoft Virtual Reality

Augmented Reality Improves your world

Virtual reality is cool, but it isolates you. Augmented reality improves your world.




NYMag.com   (Thanks Joe D!)


Put another way, VR increasingly seems like the original Nintendo — an amazing combination of hardware and software that fundamentally changed how many people spent their freetime. But AR, with its ability to be both ubiquitous and useful, seems more and more like the smartphone, a combination of hardware and software that changed how we lived.

VR used for training is saving lives and money.

It's been a ridiculously busy couple of weeks....

It looks like Hololens will get an announcement at MWC. 

...and Hololens... Augmented reality is going to be much more useful than VR, will make training better, and improve human performance in obvious and measurable ways. 

I think it will take people out of their phones and put them back with each other -- and make them better at doing actual things.

It will also have unintended negative consequences -- and positive outcome.

thx Joe.

(Things should be fairly calm around here for a couple of weeks.)

Fast forward to about 4:00 for good stuff about Hololens, but the whole video is worth your time.



Virtual reality training by companies like Microsoft is saving lives, millions of dollars, and ensuring the future of mixed reality from CNBC.


CNBC -- Use of AR & VR for industry and business

Now, VR is widely used to train employees at major companies like Walmart and Chevron. At Tyson Foods, VR safety training reduced injuries and illnesses by 20 percent.


It's also saving these companies millions of dollars, and bringing profits back to creators of VR headsets and software.

Hrvoje Benko Video (Facebook, Microsoft) AR interaction

Motley Fool... pay attention to Smart Speaker Market. -- UPDATED

In the right place at the right time, finally.

Google Smart Screen Walkthrough



Motley Fool

Keep an eye on this space

These tech giants' next big market focus is the home, and we're still in the early stages of this gold rush. Right now, Amazon still has a slight advantage because it was an early mover with its Echo devices, and its smart speakers remain an easy and natural way for consumers to buy products from its website.

Google is gaining ground with its Home and its Nest devices, but Facebook's Portal could hit a roadblock, given that users may have had their fill of Facebook-related privacy fiascos.

This market will be worth $138 billion by 2026, but the bigger opportunity for each of these companies is to lock users into their ecosystems, and then sell more ads or, in Amazon's case, more products.

It's clear that all three companies are looking to connected home devices to help them increase their interactions with users -- and if they do that successfully, it'll lead to more sales across their businesses.

CE PRO   --- Historic Period of Growth for Smart Homes

New Technology Led by Displays

“I have been in CE for 30 years and there is nothing more exciting than the smart home. There has never been a category that I was so skeptical about that I am now so bullish about,” commented Baker.  “Smart home is great but when all these other products are connected, it is even more exciting.”

While some integrators have soured on selling displays due to the lack of margin, Baker noted that display technology will continue to evolve and presents a strong opportunity for integrators.“The TV is not going to sit in the family room and not be connected to a bunch of other devices. It is just not going to happen,” he said, citing health and wellness is a great example of connectivity to the displays.

He specifically believes Amazon will make a big push into display connectivity because it does not have a cell phone play.

Baker believes the changing form factors of TVs – rollables, transparent and high design – will be a big new trend led by MicroLED, OLED and 5G TVs that direct stream signals (he dubs that category as Devices as a Services (DaaS))

*********************

The growth is primarily going to be driven by online spending. He noted that 6 percent of consumers are spending 75 percent of their disposable income online, but  40 percent of consumers still spend less than 10 percent of their disposable income online

“Online has not peaked at all. There are huge dollars coming,” he noted. “We are headed into a historic period of growth. We are at cusp on awesome new products.”

Manager's guided to Augmented Reality

Probably a good thing to be the company providing the best displays for this technology.

Harvard Business Review (more at the source)




Augmented reality, a set of technologies that superimposes digital data and images on the physical world, promises to close this gap and release untapped and uniquely human capabilities. Though still in its infancy, AR is poised to enter the mainstream; according to one estimate, spending on AR technology will hit $60 billion in 2020. AR will affect companies in every industry and many other types of organizations, from universities to social enterprises. In the coming months and years, it will transform how we learn, make decisions, and interact with the physical world. It will also change how enterprises serve customers, train employees, design and create products, and manage their value chains, and, ultimately, how they compete.

****More broadly, AR enables a new information-delivery paradigm, which we believe will have a profound impact on how data is structured, managed, and delivered on the internet. Though the web transformed how information is collected, transmitted, and accessed, its model for data storage and delivery—pages on flat screens—has major limits: It requires people to mentally translate 2-D information for use in a 3-D world. That isn’t always easy, as anyone who has used a manual to fix an office copier knows. By superimposing digital information directly on real objects or environments, AR allows people to process the physical and digital simultaneously, eliminating the need to mentally bridge the two. That improves our ability to rapidly and accurately absorb information, make decisions, and execute required tasks quickly and efficiently.

Original premise still solid

When I originally noticed MicroVision in 2006, a very simple and powerful premise presented itself, and it still stands. It's more valid now than it was then. The ecosystem is much improved since then.

The phone is at the bottom, the projected picture is the rest.

I spoke to a friend the other day about the concept of "hope" in his life, as in hoping things would go well for his business that day, or that week or this year.

He's in a business that is more reliant on hope than most. Service is held out to the public; when people want the service they come. Sometimes, for no particular reason (beyond things you "hope" about) business will be booming, maybe unexpectedly. Sometimes it will be pathetically slow -- without explanation. People call, or they don't, and from the viewpoint of a small business, it's difficult to predict. They "hope" for a good outcome on any particular day.

With larger audiences, "hope" is much less of a factor. When you have an enormous audience, you hope you can get a large part of it. You can count on -- you can depend on -- getting a small fraction of it.

There are more people on earth with smart phones than there are people on earth with flushing toilets -- what most of the world regards to be basic sanitation.

If what you're producing a product that has applications to an enormously popular other product. You don't need hope.

If you're producing a product that answers the largest desire for an improvement in that product you need even less hope.

If you're producing a product that answers the two largest desires for improvement in a hugely popular product you can count on positive results.

When the two biggest desires for improvement of a popular product are directly contradictory to each other and you can still deliver BOTH improvements. You're made of gold.

Everyone wants two things from a smartphone: something that's smaller and easier to carry, with a much larger display.

Mobile companies MUST use PicoP... 

1.4 Billion smartphones are produced and sold annually.

I have asked many people, after showing them a PicoP powered projector: "when it's readily available, what percentage of the smartphones made will incorporate a projector like this one?" The most common answer is "All of them."

With answers like that we can count on 10% -- no hope required. (What price?)
(Which is 140,000,000 units per year)

Of course, MicroVision also has or has added:

• LiDAR (A massive up and coming demand for this. Backup cameras were just introduced as a requirement for vehicles, what happens when LiDAR is required?)
• Near Eye Displays (Augmented Reality? Mixed Reality -- Talk of the town in Tech Circles.
• Some other something that isn't any of the other things... (the black box)

It is very much a bleeding edge company. (Was perfectly capable of being problematic for 10 years.) But all indications are that now we are very close.

How much would you pay for a phone like that? (More for this than any iPhone)

Thanks Christian!

Facebook: May 1&2

I suspect we walk in through the portal. Then probably enjoy a Honeycrisp.




May 1 & 2    F8

Boz on Facebook

Who's seeding AR?

Facebook Seattle Article

Seattle Times

A growing cluster of Facebook specialists in the Seattle area are working at the cutting edge of virtual and augmented reality. The company’s investments are helping to turn the area into a hub for research and development in the new technologies.

Facebook Portal During CES

Facebook developing ‘Portal’ gadget which will let it put microphones and cameras in people’s homes
In George Orwell’s 1984, the oppressive rulers of Oceania use devices called telescreens to closely monitor and repress citizens. Now Facebook looks set to follow in the Party’s footsteps by putting its own firm’s microphones and cameras into people’s homes. The social network is planning to release its first ever piece of consumer hardware which will be called Portal and cost a whopping $499 (£368), a website called Cheddar has claimed.

The device will feature a 15inch screen, a wide-angle camera with facial recognition and microphones to allow voice control. It’s expected to use facial recognition to allow people to log into their accounts without having to type in passwords and will be dedicated to video chat. The gadget has been designed by a shadowy Facebook department called Building 8 that’s also working on mind-reading technology.

‘Rather than position the device as a smart assistant akin to Amazon’s Echo speakers, Facebook intends to pitch Portal as a way for families and friends to stay connected through video chatting and other social features,’ the website wrote. ‘Facebook plans a formal product introduction in early May at its annual developer conference and hopes to ship the device in the second half of 2018.’ Apart from the potentially grave privacy implications of letting Facebook’s cameras and microphones into your home, there’s another clear fault with the gadget: it costs almost as much as an iPhone or iPad but probably does a lot less. Although Facebook has not officially commented, Andrew Bosworth, the company’s vice president of augmented and virtual reality, wrote on Twitter: ‘Can’t comment on speculation but can confirm it’s going to be an exciting year for AR/VR’.

Building 8 is a top secret Facebook division which used to be headed up by Regina E. Dugan, former boss of Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), which is dedicated to military research. Last year, Facebook admitted its own research wing was working on technology which can read people’s minds at 100 words per minute. Will Big Zucker end up watching us all?

CHEDDAR

EXCLUSIVE: Facebook Dives into Home Device Market with Video Chat Product Named "Portal"

January 9, 2018

Facebook is about to jump into the consumer hardware business in a big way with a video chat device named "Portal," which will put it in direct competition with Amazon’s hugely popular line of Echo voice-controlled devices, Cheddar has learned.

The device is designed to work in the home and represents Facebook’s first serious foray into selling consumer hardware, people familiar with the matter said. Rather than position the device as a smart assistant akin to Amazon’s Echo speakers, Facebook intends to pitch Portal as a way for families and friends to stay connected through video chatting and other social features.

Facebook plans a formal product introduction in early May at its annual developer conference and hopes to ship the device in the second half of 2018.

Like Amazon’s screen-equipped Echo Show, Facebook’s Portal is designed to work indoors and be controlled through voice commands. According to people familiar with Facebook’s plans, Portal will be equipped with a wide-angle lens that is capable of recognizing individual faces and associating them with their Facebook accounts.

The world’s largest social network has been using facial recognition for years and recently started notifying users if their faces appear in photos they aren’t tagged in.

Facebook also intends to let Portal access outside streaming services like Spotify and Netflix. The company recently signed sweeping music licensing deals with Sony/ATV and Universal Music Group.

A Facebook spokesperson declined to comment for this story.

Portal will be the first product to emerge from Facebook’s troubled consumer hardware lab, Building 8. Regina Dugan, the former Google and DARPA exec Facebook hired to lead the division, suddenly departed last year after 18 months on the job. Her exit came as numerous other high-level staffers left the division in 2017.

Veteran Facebook ad exec Andrew Bosworth was appointed last summer to lead all of the company’s hardware efforts, including its separate Oculus virtual reality business.

With Building 8, Facebook hopes to eventually sell a suite of consumer products that can compete with offerings from the likes of Amazon, Google, and Apple. Facebook employees have internally referred to the video chat device with the codename "Aloha" but recently settled on the name Portal — an indication that product development has progressed even as there’s been turnover in Building 8’s upper ranks.

Facebook is currently planning to price Portal at $499 but could decide to lower the price to further spur consumer adoption. (Amazon, by contrast, sells the Echo Show for $230.) CEO Mark Zuckerberg has told employees that he doesn’t care if the device generates profit but rather wants it to change user behavior and encourage phone-like usage among owners.

Portal will be sold by Facebook through pop-up stores and online, people familiar with the matter said. Facebook’s Oculus VR division is separately planning to release a cheaper standalone headset called Oculus Go this year.

Reporting by Alex Heath, Cheddar Senior Reporter.

https://www.theverge.com/2018/1/9/16868802/facebook-portal-amazon-echo-show-competitor-home-video-chat-screen

Facebook Wants to make Augmented Reality Glasses

Anyone investing for arbitrage potential should start raising their bids on MicroVision big time. MVIS has a far more impressive technology than was Oculus Rift, and Facebook spent 2 billion on that. 

They have lots of money, and interesting goals.


The Verge

"Mark Zuckerberg says augmented reality glasses are 'what we're trying to get to"

Mark Zuckerberg is optimistic about the future of virtual and augmented reality. At his Facebook F8 conference keynote, Zuckerberg said that the company was working on "a whole new set of social experiences" across VR platforms, echoing an announcement the company made earlier this year. "Virtual reality has the potential to be the most social platform, because you actually feel like you're right there with another person," he said, referencing an Oculus Rift "toybox" demo that lets two people play together in VR. But in the coming decade, Zuckerberg sees a progression that many people have predicted: that virtual reality will merge with augmented reality and become part of everyday life.

So that means that today, if I want to show my friends a photo, I pull out my phone and I have a small version of the photo. In the future, you'll be able to snap your fingers and pull out a photo and make it as big as you want, and with your AR glasses you'll be able to show it to people and they'll be able to see it.

Mashable

Facebook & Quickfire -- Ecosystem improvement

The more video that can be delivered to consumers, the more easily, with less bandwidth, the better. Until 5G protocol becomes common, this is the next best thing. 


AlleyWatch

What is QuickFire?

The social networking mogul Facebook took over the video startup QuickFire. The acquisition was officially announced on the QuickFire website. 

In the words of Craig Y. Lee, QuickFire CEO, “QuickFire Networks was founded on the premise that the current network infrastructure is not sufficient to support the massive consumption of online video without compromising video quality. QuickFire Networks solves this capacity problem via proprietary technology that dramatically reduces the bandwidth needed to view video online without degrading video quality.”

...the announcement comes days after Facebook declared that they average more than one billion video views every day. Video is now an essential part of the Facebook experience. Think about the #IceBucketChallenge, a viral campaign that saw 2.4 million related videos on Facebook. There is a lot of power behind such explosive campaigns that take over the online community and Zuckerberg’s team is ready to make the most of it.