It's there, but not there.

To the largest part of the market(where the most money is moved,) the idea that Microsoft will make any headway with Hololens is speculative.

I expect we'd hear this if we asked them about it: "We've heard something about it, and saw something once, and... show me. Until then I have paying customers who want to get into UBER."

Microsoft hasn't really made any efforts to move it into the mass market yet.

If you go to their store and look up devices, it's not even listed. (VR and virtual reality are listed) but then you end up on the splash screen below... where Hololens will appear...second -- after Facebook's Oculus Rift. 

Hololens is there, but not really there. If you're going out of your way to find it, you can find it. If you just wait for it to jump in front of you... it's not going to happen. 

In spite of all of the glowing reviews - amazing results and demonstrations - and the huge Military contract for the device, the most popular video about it on YouTube is about.... Minecraft. (Has less than 5 million views... ) The amazing demonstrations of it in use improving productivity are way down the list. (They don't need YouTube to get the word out to people who will employ it that way.)

The idea that Microvision is in the Hololens is secondary speculation. Which in my view both painful and awesome.

We do not have definitive proof that MicroVision's tech is in the Hololens, but there's enough evidence that it could win the court case, and the appeals.

Meanwhile, there are 1.7 billion shares of UBER, trading at $33. It has a market cap of 57 Billion, and loses $3 per share. --- but it's popular, and people like to throw their money into it.

Given the behavior of Microsoft around Hololens.... when they do their media blitz they will get it a lot of attention... and the part of the market where the most money is moved will notice.

Microsoft Virtual Reality

Uber's Autonomous Car Detected a Pedestrian, chose not to stop

This is where the benefit of a steerable and dense point cloud comes in handy. Or a LiDAR that can tell the difference between a cat and a brick.



Technology Review

The Information

CNBC

"Pedestrian Fatalities Skyrocket"

The news: According to a report by the Information, the vehicle’s software did in fact detect the pedestrian, but it chose not to immediately react. The car was programmed to ignore potential false positives, or things in the road that wouldn’t interfere with the vehicle (like a plastic bag). But those adjustments were taken too far.

Why? The car may have been part of a test for increased rider comfort. Autonomous cars aren’t known for their smooth rides, and by ignoring things that are probably not a threat, a vehicle can cut down on the number of start-and-stop jerks riders experience.

What’s next? Uber is conducting a joint investigation with the National Transportation Safety Board, after which more details are expected to be released. In the meantime, the report could inspire other self-driving-vehicle companies to treat potential false positives with more caution.

(Scraped to retain.)

Accidents will happen

This is an important thing. Accidents WILL happen with new technology, that's no doubt. But it's important to note that this was a collision with a bicycle.

I have searched for the reference regarding the abilities of MicroVision's LiDAR -- but among them mentioned specifically is the ability to recognize things like bicycles & being able to distinguish the difference between objects of roughly the same size -- such as the difference between a brick and a cat.

Dense point cloud, and lasers on multiple wavelengths are feature that can benefit this ability.

They do not operate in isolation, however. There is a lot of software that has to be developed and tested and 

ABC 15 Arizona

TEMPE, Ariz. - Tempe, Arizona police are investigating a deadly crash involving a self-driving Uber vehicle early Monday morning.

The Uber vehicle was reportedly headed northbound when a woman walking outside of the crosswalk was struck.

Tempe Police says the vehicle was in autonomous mode at the time of the crash and a vehicle operator was also behind the wheel. No passengers were in the vehicle at the time.

An Uber spokesperson said they are aware of the incident and are cooperating with authorities.

Uber has paused self-driving operations in Phoenix, Pittsburgh, San Francisco and Toronto, which is a standard move, the company says.

The investigation is still active.

Uber began testing self-driving cars in Tempe in February 2017. The fleet of self-driving Volvos arrived in Arizona after they were banned from California roads over safety concerns. Gov. Doug Ducey touted Arizona as a testing ground, saying at the time in a written statement, “Arizona welcomes Uber self-driving cars with open arms and wide open roads.”

One of the self-driving cars was involved in a crash a month later, after a car failed to yield to the Uber vehicle and hit it, authorities said. The self-driving SUV rolled onto its side as a result crash.

There were no serious injuries were reported in that crash.

Ford ahead of Waymo and Uber

Be a critical part of solving big problems.

They all need good LiDAR components.


Ford Ahead of Waymo and Uber in self Driving cars

Michigan-based Ford is leading the pack, closely followed by GM and the Renault-Nissan Alliance, according to a report released Monday by clean tech market research firm Navigant Research. Google’s Waymo ranks seventh out of the 18 companies examined, and Tesla and Uber don’t even crack the top 10 — coming in at 12th and 16th, respectively.

****

“Automated driving is increasingly being considered the key technology to address societal problems caused by the proliferation of automobiles around the world,” wrote the researchers, who graded companies on factors including their vision, go-to market strategy, technology and staying power. “It has accelerated in the last decade, enabled by advancements in computational architectures and sensing technology, along with dramatic cost reductions.”

USA Today

Ford Motor is in pole position when it comes to benefiting from the coming age of autonomous vehicles.

That's the conclusion of a study released Monday by Navigant Research, which sells its in-depth surveys of energy and transportation markets to suppliers, policymakers and other industry stakeholders.

The Dearborn-based automaker took the top spot by demonstrating that it has the strategic vision and execution capabilities to both develop automated driving systems as well as deploy them across a range of mobility platforms.


Drive.com

The following group included the Volkswagen Group , BMW, Waymo - owned by Google's parent Alphabet - and Volvo.

Ford was ranked the highest due to its advanced on-road testing programs in Michigan, California and Arizona. Ford has also announced plans to expand its testing to Europe in 2017.

This emerging technology has infiltrated safety technology systems such as Ford's new Evasive Steering Assist, which is capable of helping drivers steer around slow or stopped vehicles through the use of radar and camera detection.

The American car maker has set itself a target of 2021 for when it wants a fully autonomous vehicle on the road, with ride-sharing its initial focus.

General Motor is employing the same strategy, and has teamed up with ride-sharing company Lyft to test thousands of driverless Chevrolet Bolts around the US in 2018, however, initially GM is testing a fleet of 40 cars in California and Arizona with a plan to extend to Michigan.

MVIS Value -- By Comparable Market Cap: WhatsApp, GoPro, Groupon, Uber

Several times during the annual stockholder meeting the words "ridiculous valuations" was used. Mentioned specifically was offer Steve Ballmer made for the LA Clippers -- apparently about three times the price that a basketball team should command.

So, a question: What would a "ridiculous" valuation for Microvision be?

LA Clippers + Steve Ballmer

WhatsApp --- valuation: $19 Billion

First, what did Facebook actually pay for WhatsApp?

Facebook ( FB ) announced that it will acquire mobile messaging app WhatsApp for a whopping $16 billion, out of which $12 billion will be funded through stock and the remaining through cash. The deal also includes another $3 billion in restricted stock units. -- From Nasdaq $16 billion + 3 billion = $19 billion.

• WhatsApp Revenue Model
• Forbes, "value for many"
• Understanding WhatsApp's $16 Billion Price Tag -- from CNBC

Quotes from "Understanding WhatsApps $16 Billion Price Tag"
It's WhatsApp's scale that CEO Mark Zuckerberg is focused on – he predicts it'll hit 1 billion users in just a few years—and he says it'll be key to his vision for "connecting the world"
WhatsApp already has a business model and is generating revenue. It's free for the first year, then charges 99 cents annually.

Free for the first year, then .99/year. In the world of the free internet, it's probably likely that a significant number of users will create a new account after a year, and use it the second year for free. 

In April, they have about 500 million monthly active users. (That's a lot, no question.)

A billion users. $0.99/year/user -- that's their revenue model. -- that they'll all actually pay a dollar per year to use it is a large assumption.

Profit Margin: effectively 100%
Dubious Moat

GoPro --- Market Cap $5.33 Billion

Sells cool cameras. No question.

Their product costs a lot to produce. 

They have revenues, but they're still losing money.

Profit Margin: 5%

Moat is dubious

Groupon -- Market Cap $4.4 Billion

Loses money. (it shouldn't, but it does.)
Profit margin -- should be really high, but it isn't.
No Moat (If it's very difficult for someone else to duplicate your performance, you have a moat.)

Uber -- Valuation $17 Billion

CNBC on Uber Valuation

This is an interesting company, and there's some genius at work. They have a service that will likely give taxi services a run for their money. The concept could grow far beyond taxi services -- providing "nimble services" in other areas. What they don't have that Microvision owns is a huge moat. There isn't any way to provide a patent protection to this service, and to invest confidently in this, one would have to be confident that no one finds a better way to do the same job, or that there are few problems while riding with Uber. If the service continues, there eventually WILL be a fatal accident while riding with Uber, and how things fall out there will be interesting.

No Moat
Lots of risk
Profit Margin? Probably really high.

Comparing the companies:

Microvision has real value that exceeds these companies. No, they aren't selling product yet, but that is about to change with a vengeance. 

Microvision has real products to sell/license. If you want the product, you have to go to them, you're not going to be able to build your own or find a replacement - or open a new account so you can get the product free.

Competition: All of the above mentioned companies can experience severe competition. At the moment they all enjoy being a kind of default choice, but each has considerable vulnerability. Creating new software is done all the time. In the case of GoPro, many companies are imitating them, coming up with smaller and more durable cameras. Microvision, on the other hand has a product, with very significant patent protection. Other companies are producing small projectors, that is true, but for those of us who have tried to see as much of the competition as possible -- the competition is lame by comparison. There is no comparison - Microvision outclasses them all.

Market potential:

All of the companies considered have world-wide market potential.

WhatsApp: a lot of people use texting, and they have a significant user base now. That's good. A whole lot of people in the financial world never heard about Whatsapp until Facebook made a bid for it.

GoPro: Their cameras are cool, no question. What percentage of the people in general need hardened cameras that work while they do crazy things? Not a high percentage.

Groupon: Sure this is an excellent service. They have the means to make money. The number of people who go out to eat on a regular basis is large, can they grow? Absolutely.

Uber: Another excellent service idea. However outside of urban areas, and away from large airports, taxi service isn't that common. This could make riding in other cars more common, and it could certainly grow.

Microvision: Nearly a billion smartphones are sold annually. Nearly every person on earth consumes media in the form of moving pictures. Microvision has a better, more portable and less expensive way to do this. (that uses significantly less power). Among the very large populations in urban areas where it is difficult to keep big things, Microvision can provide a gigantic screen experience, from a very small package. In rural & undeveloped areas where it's difficult to get power, and difficult to transport large fragile things, PicoP could make media available to people who are currently unable to get it. In suburban areas, teenagers want to carry this around, and will.

Look at the company and not the financials to make your decision. Which one is worth more?

Comparing Market Capitalization.

Company	Market Cap	MVIS Price At that Market Cap
WhatsApp	19,000,000,000	$441.86
GoPro	5,330,000,000	$123.95
Groupon	4,400,000,000	$102.33
Uber	17,000,000,000	$395.35