You own a two-acre parcel in downtown Miami right now. You bought it when it was covered just with gravel and weeds, but you could see the promise it holds. It's enormously valuable, even though it's not yet producing income. {200 million} Holding onto this valuable asset could be challenging. The surrounding properties, though often far less valuable, generate income, making them more comfortable to retain. A smaller, less valuable vacant lot—covered with gravel and weeds and costing you money without providing income—might feel easier to hold onto. Eventually, it’s time to build a tall structure on the site: multiple money-generating endeavors in the same structure; residential, hotel, commercial. Leases are already signed. Payments won’t begin until tenants move in. You wait and observe. I recall watching a similar site in Minneapolis years ago. Work began with numerous vehicles moving material out of the lot. Months passed. Then material was brought in. Lines of trucks would arrive, yet it remained just a hole in the ground. More than a year went by, and it stayed that way—we grew accustomed to seeing only a hole. Then, without warning, a tall building grew rapidly. Every time we looked that way it was taller, until it was finished and making its owners rich. Much of the preparation for the structure happened out of sight—except below grade, where the workers toiled—until, suddenly, it emerged as a glorious edifice.
Some have called, texted, and emailed to ask about it.... so: I am holding and will continue to hold.
There is some broader market uncertainty, and there should be... I think MVIS should be either largely unscathed by this or benefit from it. (Finding an issue with real growth potential in a market of shrinking issues could benefit us.)
The basic benchmark (for the time being) is LAZR.
Microvision's LiDAR is better than theirs, so for the LiDAR vertical we should equal or exceed their price.
12,000,000,000 / 155,000 = $77/share for Microvision. (For LIDAR)
I believe Microvision's near eye display is worth at LEAST what the LiDAR is worth.
$77 * 2 = $154 -- that's my target right now. { This isn't including the interactive laser display, display only, or other cool things MicroVision has in their bag of tricks. }
Eventually the LAZR comparison will break down - not sure what the trigger will be (yet)
Once AR gets renewed attention I believe it will effect MVIS at least as much as the attention that LiDAR has received.
This is all my opinion... I'm doing me. You do you.
Four Companies are all working on two things as "the next big things" Augmented Reality and Self driving vehicles.
Combined they are worth 6.921 Trillion Together they have 340 billion in cash
If they have a bidding competition for key technology that will give them an edge against the others, how much would they be willing to pay? is 20 Billion too much?
Recently I suggested 10 Billion for LiDAR and 10 Billion for Near Eye display. 20 Billion.
Let's look at the big tech companies: (Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft) They're ALL looking at self-driving cars. They're all looking at Augmented reality. They would all like to be leaders in one or both, and one company has the best specs in both. (MicroVision)
All have market caps north of a Trillion dollars, and huge cash reserves (1.21.2021 - source, Yahoo Finance.)
Apple Market Cap: $2,270,000,000,000 -- Cash on hand: 91 Billion
Amazon Market Cap: $1,663,000,000,000 -- Cash on hand: 68 Billion
Google Market Cap: $1,300,000,000,000 -- Cash on Hand: 132 Billion
Microsoft Market Cap: $1,686,000,000,000 -- Cash on Hand: 138 Billion They could pay way more than my "crazy" price target with jingle money and hardly notice.....
Approximate Valuation: 10 Billion. (MicroVision's LiDAR is better)
At the same value: 10 Billion / 152 Million = $66
I consider the near eye display to be worth MORE than the LiDAR -- it certainly I think will be at least as widely used. Now that we have a value for LiDAR, I'm significantly adjusting my guess on NED -- I'm keeping my guess simple.
Market Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) is likely more important than fundamentals... And the fundamentals here are REALLY good.
Not even the most awesome products hit the ground in a frenzy. A recent example is Instantpot : Founded in 2009, started moving in 2014, a frenzy in 2017. (Overnight success! says the media.) We're sitting on two products that appear to be getting this kind of growth and adoption. LiDAR and Near Eye Display. LiDAR will be everywhere. So will Near Eye Display.
Good
charts of adoption are difficult to find. You eventually end up with some kind of distorting compression that changes it in a way that the visual representation is distorted. ( partly because, as you'll
see, they're difficult to fit on a screen and be readable at both ends.) This page from PetaPixel. It has a couple of very interesting charts of adoption.
This
is of CAMERA Sales.... Sucks to be in cameras? unless you think you
just went back to sort of normal from a decade of amazing.
If
we add cameras that are included on cellphones, we get a bit of a
different picture. The GOLD area is cameras on phones..... except they
fade out at the top of the graph.
Well, happily, they put something on there so we could see the top
of the graph --- but the screen graphics kind of break down. Well,
there you are with cellphones included.
That's how a market can grow.
LiDAR is for more than cars, and Near Eye displays are probably going to replace your cellphone screen in a few years.
MicroVision Announces Addition of Judy Curran to its Board of Directors
REDMOND, Wash., Dec. 01, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- MicroVision, Inc.
(Nasdaq: MVIS), an innovative leader in solid state lidar sensor and
ultra-miniature laser display technology based on its proprietary laser
beam scanning technology, today announced Judy Curran was appointed to its board of directors.
Curran is an accomplished senior automotive executive with over 30
years of experience in vehicle program, engineering and technology
leadership. Curran has a strong record of leading innovation at Ford
Motor Company where she served in a number of executive positions
including Director of Technology Strategy, where she developed the
cross-vehicle global strategy for key new technologies including
assisted driving, infotainment, new electrical architectures, and
connectivity. Previous executive roles at Ford included Vehicle Line Director, Vehicle Evaluation and Validation Director and VP Engineering for Automotive Components Holding LLC.
Curran currently works at Ansys as its Head of Global Automotive
Strategy. Ansys is a simulation software company used to simulate
multi-physic systems including ADAS systems.
In addition to her executive experience, Curran has served on several
boards including the Automotive Component Holdings Operating Board, a
Ford Subsidiary; Board of Directors Executive Committee, Inforum
Automotive NEXT; Board of Advisors, College of Engineering, Lawrence Technological University; German American Chamber of Commerce Board - Detroit Office and Board of Directors for SAE Foundation, SAE WCX, and SAE GLC Committees. Curran earned her Bachelor of Science in Electrical Engineering and Computer Software at Lawrence Technological University and her Master of Science in Electrical Engineering at the University of Michigan.
“Judy has an extensive background in executive and strategic
leadership in the automotive industry during a distinguished career at Ford. We are fortunate to have her join our board,” said Brian Turner,
Chairman and Lead Independent Director at MicroVision. “I believe
automotive lidar sensor technology represents a significant opportunity
and potential value to our shareholders. Judy brings a deep
understanding of the current automotive marketplace including new
technology, business strategy, operations and management. Her role at
Ford Motor Company leading assisted driving strategy and other
technology initiatives strengthens our board as we consider various
opportunities. She will be a valuable addition to the MicroVision board
of directors.”
“I am very excited to join the MicroVision board and I look forward
to working with Brian, my fellow directors and management as the Company
continues to explore strategic options with Craig-Hallum Capital Group, LLC,
its financial advisor,” said Curran. “I am eager to bring my experience
and energy to the board and help guide the Company in implementing a
successful strategy.”
About MicroVision
MicroVision is the creator of PicoP® scanning technology, an
ultra-miniature sensing and projection solution based on the laser beam
scanning methodology pioneered by the Company. MicroVision’s platform
approach for this sensing and display solution means that its technology
can be adapted to a wide array of applications and form factors. We
combine our hardware, software, and algorithms to unlock value for our
customers by providing them a differentiated advanced solution for a
rapidly evolving, always-on world.
MicroVision has a substantial portfolio of patents relating to laser
beam scanning projection and sensing. MicroVision’s industry leading
technology is a result of its extensive research and development. The
Company is based in Redmond, Washington.
Thanks Snowboard for the assist! As always, I show my work... (and I believe the exercise involved in finding a method is more important than the result.) This is all my own work, this is an exercise, Im not giving any investing advice, do you own homework, (etc.)
Coming up with a concrete number here is very difficult. There is little if any price/value history on LiDAR, and much of what is there is from experimental usage.
This is probably the most valuable part of the company -- The CEO is there because of LiDAR. Coming up with any numbers here is difficult. Lots of guesswork (I'm admitting it, the best we can get is a SWAG.) A few assorted facts:
All LiDAR will be using class 1 lasers. (Even though you can't see
infrared laser light, stronger than class one could still damage eyes,
and there is no blink reflex for infrared light.)
MicroVision's target is 20,000,000 points per second, that's a lot of points. You can count hairs on people with that.
The significant limiting factor on range is the Speed of light. (see chart below)
A few main areas of likely use: (There are more, like SLAM, scanning and 3D printing... )
Gesture Control
Security
Adas
Gesture control: This could be huge.... ...but after wrestling with this off and on for days, I really can't come up with a defensible guess on it.
The potential is enormous though. You could, for example build a new home that has no wall switches at all, and have anything you want controlled by gesture. (Turn on the lights, raise or lower the blinds, adjust the temperature, etc.) With one sensor and one wire instead of multiple switches and needing to get up to do it.
I could come up with something, but the SWAG would emphasize the wild-ass part of it. After already exerting considerable effort in this direction, I've determined that further effort will not result in a good and measurable estimate of a future reality.
No Guess
Security
Subscriptions + Hardware.
I've seen MVIS's LiDAR in action at a shareholder meeting. It can recognize people. This has been described on MicroVision's conference calls, and has been described with significant additional safety and convenience features.
This could identify individual people
Can distinguish between pets and people (or YOUR pet and the neighbors pet)
Can distinguish between normal behaviors and strange things that could be of concern
Could save face-scans of intruders and allow intruders to be identified later
I'm a definitive yes on this. I'll assume that 25% would like and pay for the capabilities, and they could perhaps add 25% of subscriptions. (Identifying people in the home would be huge, along with other benefits.) At an approximate $75/month additional to another subscription with 1/3 of that credited directly to the ability of the MicroVision tech. (Still a SWAG, remember.)
If yes, 25 * 5,000,000 = 125Million per month. = 1.5 Billion per year. Over a 5 year window you could run that out to 7.5 Billion ($53/share) Like Beats, selling the subscription is the money center.
ADAS
What is the value of preventing accidents? It's huge in the amount saved in damage and life.
If you're using a self-driving car and it crashes, who's fault will that be? -- the company that programmed it and designed the system. (They'll obviously put a self-testing system in place -- and it won't move unless their system is working... or you'll have to disconnect it and take responsibility yourself.)
Car insurance premiums could drop by as much as $25 billion, or 12.5% of
the total market, by 2035 thanks to the rollout of autonomous vehicles,
consulting firm Accenture noted in its report.
Accenture calls it an $81 Billion opportunity. (If you give MVIS a 5% share of that number is $4 Billion or $28/share)
Government requirement. (Something small, cheap easy to install, high resolution is a GOOD thing to have in this market.)
What is the value of a self driving vehicle.
What is the value of a vehicle that is mostly ding-and dent proof?
American Family Insurance: Discounts for:
Forward Collision Warning
This car safety feature tracks a vehicle’s speed and compares it to
the vehicle ahead. If the distance is closing too quickly, the system
warns the driver to slow down through a visual alert, audible warning,
or combination of the two. This warning gives drivers time to brake and
avoid a collision.
Automatic Emergency Braking
If the driver doesn’t respond to the forward collision warning, some
vehicles also have automatic emergency braking. This car safety feature
automatically applies the brakes to slow or even stop the vehicle.
Depending on your speed, automatic emergency braking can reduce the
severity of a crash or even prevent it completely.
The lane departure warning system uses cameras to see road markings.
If a driver drifts out of the lane without signaling, then this feature
issues an audible or visual warning so the driver can steer the car back
into its lane. Some systems also vibrate the driver’s seat or steering
wheel to get the driver’s attention. Working along with lane departure
warning on some cars is lane keep assist. This will gently nudge the
steering wheel in the correct direction to help the driver stay in his
lane.
Blind Spot Detection and Rear Cross Traffic Alert
When there’s a vehicle in the blind spot, this car safety feature
alerts the driver with an audible or visual warning. Some systems issue a
warning only if a car is in your blind spot when you use your turn
signal while other systems activate a visual alert any time a car is in
the blind spot, even if you’re not signaling to turn. Rear cross traffic
alert is another system to help you see what you might miss. When the
car is in reverse, it monitors traffic about to drive behind the vehicle
and warns the driver of any oncoming cars.
SLAM Simultaneous Localization and Mapping
When robot's start moving among us, this will be very important.
This could have enormous impact in tool and die, manufacturing, etc, but it's very difficult to put a number to it. (Just making sure your tool doesn't crash into something it shouldn't this could be big.
Could heavy equipment scan the area for fragile items and LiDAR in concert with onboard software ensure that this equipment doesn't move anything it shouldn't? Probably yes, probably would save a lot. (Could a crane operator, for example move loads MUCH faster with much more confidence?)
No history --- no guess... but someone out there has a value for this..
Scanning / 3D printing
No guess.... this is another one of those items that could be a very big market, or very small... no way to know yet.
No guess. (There is value for this too.)
The RANGE AND RESOLUTION CHART
Included because it's interesting -- and because it provides understandings of important limitations.
The laser in a lidar must be class 1 (brighter could still damage eyes, even though the light can't be seen)
Range and resolution are limited by the speed of light.
I produced the spreadsheet below after listening to a bunch of engineers at a STM conference argue about LiDAR range. They spent some time arguing that the speed of light was a limiting factor. Since it's the fastest thing, I did this to understand that argument.
For each pixel of resolution, the light must leave the device, bounce off the object at the end, and return to the source.
Constants
All of this is a HARD LIMIT, not of the hardware, but a hard limit based on the speed of light.
Constant
Value
Scale
Name
Light Second
299,792,458
meters/sec
LightSec
720P
921,600
Pixels
LowHD
Lightsec div PS
1080P
2,073,600
Pixels
HD
Points / Second
Range in METERS
Refresh
60
Hertz
Refresh
HD X Hertz
124,416,000
2.41
Adjusting the Refresh rate (scans per second) changes the effective range (Using all the pixels of that standard resolution.) For 60 Hertz, we could use a number less than 60hz to account for error-rates, etc.
Low HD X Hertz
55,296,000
5.42
for points per second it only requires the number of points and the speed of light to find the distance.
The LiDAR Partners Program is an ecosystem
consisting of module manufacturers, module customization partners, and
component suppliers. It offers opportunities for LiDAR module
manufacturers to benefit from our expertise, reference designs, and
component partner ecosystem when designing LiDAR solutions. This program
also allows OEMs to be better connected to these module suppliers by
leveraging our worldwide sales force to promote the publicly available
partner solutions more widely to the industry. If an OEM has specific
design requirements, the ability to connect with a customization partner
specialized in manufacturing based on reference designs makes turning
custom specifications into a product easier for OEMs that do not want to
design or manufacture their own LiDAR sensor.
Over the past month, we announced
collaborations with a number of LiDAR module manufacturers using ON
Semiconductor SiPMs in their sensors. We are pleased to introduce this
first wave of partners, listed below, in the LiDAR Partners Program, and
look forward to announcing many more in the coming months.
There is a new paradigm coming. It will arrive in full force by 2025.
It is Spatial Computing.
Computing that you, a robot, or a virtual being, can move through.
Some
think it's ambient computing. That's a piece. Some think it's augmented
reality. That's a piece. Some think it's virtual reality. That's a
piece. Those all fit under the spatial computing tent.
We can feel it when we go into an Amazon Go store where hundreds of cameras and sensors are watching our every move.
We can feel it when we put on a Microsoft HoloLens and move virtual factories around with our bare hands. No mouse needed.
We
can feel it when we look at the new Samsung Note 10 phones that have a
3D sensor with hundreds of thousands of data points. That lets your
phone do augmented reality that is pretty mind blowing, actually.
We
can feel it when we see surgeries being prepared for, and done, with
augmented reality glasses (and I know of one, coming, that even saves
surgeons' own lives).
We can feel it when we see robots delivering things in Las Vegas hotels.
We
can feel it when we see a self-driving car whiz past while we sit in a
Mountain View cafe. Or, when you let a Tesla drive you, like I do every
day.
We can feel it when Merge Labs announces they have sold a
million augmented reality cubes, mostly to teachers who are starting to
teach in a new way.
We can feel it when we talk to the founder of
Sketchfab and he shows us his stats are going up exponentially, now with
millions of 3D models in his search engine.
Perhaps the most interesting Pixel 4 leak we’ve seen is the possible use of air gestures, operating the device without having to touch the display. Google’s Project Soli radar chip was first introduced in 2015 at Google I/O, then demonstrated in action working on prototype smartwatch and smart speakers the following year. Indications surfaced in June that this chip might finally be ready for prime time since “skip” and “silence” (mute) media playback gestures are being worked on in Android Q that would require the support of such a chip for the phone to be “aware” of when the user makes such a gesture. While mainline Android Q seems to have a rather limited implementation for exploiting the capabilities of this radar chip, I have no doubt that the development community will come up with some more interesting uses.
I'm really busy, haven't even had a chance to watch this.
Thanks Mike Autoblog As you check this out, imagine if you will the market capitalization that this application ALONE could achieve for a company. This article is making some assumptions of limitations of LiDAR that MicroVision has already dispelled. This is an application that MicroVision has already highlighted. ***********
Jack Narcotta, a senior smart home analyst at Strategy Analytics, said lidar lasers were one of the more advanced solutions for elderly monitoring, but were still in the very early stages.
Even though lidar doesn't recognize faces, some consumers may be concerned about the amount of tracking and location data collected and the ability to see repeatable patterns, he said.
***[Actually, yes it does. If you have seen the demo of MicroVision's LiDAR it not only recognizes faces, but expressions.]
In the pilot, IBM Research UK and Cera Care plan to install lidar sensors in around 10-15 volunteer households in Britain from June, and see whether they can build up a detailed picture of a care client's daily routine and home environment using IBM's machine learning software. (This is data-gathering for Artifical intelligence.)
Their aim is to alert caregivers to any possible deterioration in a person's physical and psychological health, such as changes in gait, or emergency situations such as a fall.
Ben Maruthappu, co-founder and CEO of Cera Care, hopes the technology will help the care system become more personalized even as the demand for care outgrows the number of careworkers on the front line.
"Technology like this can help us solve that gap between demand and supply because it means we can pinpoint when a careworker needs to be in a person's home," Maruthappu told Reuters.
(Improvements in the bottom line... always good to participate in that.)
***********
Nicola Palmarini, IBM's top research scientist for aging and longevity, says lidar - which doesn't recognize personal characteristics such as faces, age and gender - provides precise data without people feeling like they are being watched.
He believes they will only need one lidar sensor per room, potentially making it more scalable and reducing overall care costs if people can stay at home for longer.
Still, the technology comes with a high price-tag, with 3D sensors currently costing between $800 and $1,000 each, according to Palmarini. He expects the cost to fall over time.
Aejaz Zahid, a director at assistroniX and expert on new technologies to help people age well, said one major benefit of lidar could be fall detection - a major pain point for health systems that researchers have struggled to crack with wearables.
Other firms looking at lidar's potential in the smart home include scanning technology maker Microvision that has launched a lidar sensor with a range of up to 10 metres with machine-learning capabilities.
Sam Bradford, a farm manager at Arcturus Downs in Australia’s Queensland state, was an early adopter as part of a pilot program for SwarmFarm last year. He used four robots, each about the size of a truck, to kill weeds.
In years past, Bradford had used a 120-foot wide, 16-ton spraying machine that “looks like a massive praying mantis.” It would blanket the field in chemicals, he said.
But the robots were more precise. They distinguished the dull brown color of the farm’s paddock from green foliage, and targeted chemicals directly at the weeds. It’s a task the farm does two to three times a year over 20,000 acres. With the robots, Bradford said he can save 80% of his chemical costs.
“The savings on chemicals is huge, but there’s also savings for the environment from using less chemicals and you’re also getting a better result in the end,” said Bradford, who’s run the farm for about 10 years. Surrounding rivers run out to the Great Barrier Reef off Australia’s eastern cost, making the farm particularly sensitive over its use of chemicals, he said.
Very few of even the Microvision investors I talk to have actually tried 3D computing.
If you read this and haven't tried it yet, go to your nearest Microsoft store and try something 3D. Will it be successful? It has to be. It's just better in every way... How successful will large screens (and large interactive screens) with a tiny form factor and extremely low power consumption be? (very popular) How successful will a scanning LiDAR be, that can identify friendly people and unlock at your front door sometimes and lock it at others? It can help with security, and with all kinds of automation?
If the Explorer Edition reminds you of Microsoft’s latest Kinect release, the Azure Kinect DK, you’re right. However, though both sensors are intended for AI applications, there is at least one important functional difference. Microsoft’s device is optimized for use with its Azure cloud-computing platform, while MicroVision’s is designed explicitly for processing environmental information on the device itself, using machine-learning to build maps and track objects.
“By packing the solution with machine learning at the edge,” the company says, “actionable data is provided directly to the application, eliminating the need to send raw sensor data to the cloud for processing. This results in reduced system latency while maintaining user privacy.”