An Effort to do some noise reduction.

I'm offering a timeline of recent events. I think the AR space is heating up significantly, and someone is going to make a move soon. 

If we are priced taking into account the enormous number of subscriptions that the near eye display can enable.... that's great thing. (The last presentation made noises about a subscription-like model for LiDAR)

...will the ultimate valuation of the NED vertical take into consideration the enormous potential for sales of subscriptions through these devices? My bet is yes. 

In my humble opinion, that would make it worth more than Activision. (That's how I see it, you make up your own mind.)

March 2021

• “We believe that MR/AR products could replace all display-equipped electronics in the long term” (CultofMac)

September 2021

• Josh Miller -- From Microsoft (and before that Microvision) Becomes director of Display Design at META/Facebook 
  LinkedIn
• FACEBOOK/META does Rayban (see list of links below.)
• Microsoft to buy back 60 Billion in shares

This is a particularly interesting month. 

October 28, 2021

• Investor Place Interview 15:10 - 15:15 RAYBAN Mentioned 

• Barrons: Apple could replace iPhone with Augmented Reality Devices
  This might be something to ignore, but the Barrons has good credibility and Ming-Chi Kuo has excellent credibiliy in calling Apples moves and products.
  
  Applescoop has him at 80+% reliability -- when dealing with a company that is as secretive as Apple, that's very impressive. (His run of good calls is MUCH longer than what is on the linked page

December 28, 2021

• Facebook Poaching Engineers from Apple (MSN)
• Apple Insider: Apple paying $180,000 bonuses to prevent engineers from defecting.
• IDB Apple-Meta Poaching War

The development must be viewed through the prism of the ongoing talent war between Apple and Meta, formerly Facebook. According to reports so far, Meta has been poaching key engineers from Apple’s silicon, augmented reality, wearable, hardware and software divisions for the past few months.

January 6, 2022

• Facebook Giving up on AR/VR OS (Fudzilla)
• The VERGE Facebook Canceling XROS (Announced)    

This tells me that they're in a bigger hurry than they used to be, or things have heated up and they need to accelerate their previous delivery targets.

If you can own your own OS you can have more control. If you do it faster -- you may have to share with someone else, but there may be additional benefits to being faster. (Android has been the platform so far) 

January 10, 2022

• Facebook Poaching MSFT AR engineers (Wall Street Journal)

January 18, 2022

• Microsoft to buy Activision $67 Billion

January 25, 2022 (Thanks S2upid!)

SPIE AR/VR Special Event

---

Maybe this explains better?

Big Tech AR GAME owner:

"We can make HUGE money with subscriptions to these games."
MicroVision Representative:

"I know you want to buy our Near Eye vertical based only on the "widget" value it has.

We are going to sell it to you based on the widget value PLUS the value you will get from being able to sell future subscriptions. (and ads, and in-app purchases...)

In the case of Activision, that's $68.7 Billion for 31 games.

Steam has 50,000 games. It looks like the fruit company wants to make near eye display replace all the screens... your move.

{maybe we need to focus on ads... just imagine how intrusive Facebook could be when it highlights the business it's advertising as you walk past it.}

---

Facebook-Ray Ban Glasses (PR started in September 2021)

FACEBOOK RAYBAN SEPTEMBER 2021 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_uOFWU4o3tw

 

https://www.engadget.com/facebook-ray-ban-stories-smart-glasses-ar-160006477.html

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/09/facebook-ray-ban-stories-smart-glasses-review.html 

 

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/techtank/2021/09/21/seeing-past-the-cool-facebooks-new-smart-glasses/

 

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/sep/15/techscape-smart-glasses-facebook

 

https://news.yahoo.com/facebook-ray-ban-stories-review-114325879.html

 

https://time.com/6096715/facebook-ray-ban-smart-glasses/

 

https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2021/09/09/ray-ban-stories-zuckerberg-glasses-orig.cnn-business 9/9/2021

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/facebook-releases-ray-ban-smart-glasses-rcna1951

 

https://www.accessnow.org/facebook-ray-ban-stories-smart-glasses-privacy-review/

 

https://techcrunch.com/2021/09/09/facebooks-first-smart-glasses-make-the-case-for-face-worn-wearables/

 

https://www.macrumors.com/2021/09/09/facebook-ray-ban-stories-smart-glasses/

 

https://www.zdnet.com/article/facebookray-ban-stories-smartglasses-everything-you-need-to-know/

 

https://mashable.com/review/facebook-rayban-stories-smart-glasses-review

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray-Ban_Stories

Recent Presentation and the Upside.

1st Things first. Whatever you buy or sell is on you. 

I know this is read by other people, but it started as a place for me to keep my notes and not lose them -- and that's largely what it still is, and I haven't been keeping as up on things as I used to.

Posts are rare now, largely because there are a lot more eyes on Microvision than there used to be and you can see a lot of discussion, references and new information on the r/mvis reddit board... 

---

• The most valuable part of MicroVision is the Near Eye display. 
• As much as the focus of the investing public is on LiDAR, don't forget this.
•  it's big enough that I think that LiDAR could serve its primary function as a distraction.
• Apple / Barrons -- AR device 4th Quarter 2022. (Ming-Chi Kuo rarely gets things wrong.)
• "Apple will launch an augmented-reality headset in the fourth quarter of 2022, and could sell more than a billion of the new devices over the next 10 years, one analyst asserted in a research note Friday."
• Replace All Screens?
• Given 4th Quarter 2022, Near Eye Display is likely to have a breakthrough very soon.
• Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft and other players are ALL working on Augmented Reality technology and content.
• MicroVision has BEST near eye display solution in the world. 
• The Near Eye Display could be sold as a whole at any time
• Some other arrangement involving Near Eye Display could show up. (and value based on subscriptions -- would be most profitable for us. (Look at the Beats post, and the Microvision presentation to see that.)
• Companies desperate for AR.... will be REALLY good for Microvision Stockholders       
• (Is someone out there Tracking these people? send a note.)
• iPad Moment for smart Glasses coming soon
• 
  
• The number of subscriptions that can be sold with AR devices is ENORMOUS. If we have the value proposition for near eye display changing to emulate the way the value proposition has just been modified for LiDAR as illustrated in the recent Microvision LiDAR presentation.... then.... we will do really well.

• Microsoft has gotten HUGE increases in productivity with Hololens, and AR Games... will be gigantic.

• Microvision stock is heavily manipulated. 
• (Trading experts tell me it's about 60% manipulated down)
• Public posts by hired guns exist. (paid bashers)

I believe they are quiet about the near eye display on purpose and for strategic reasons.. (NDA, deal underway.... negotiating tactic.... )

As Snow tells me... the elephant in the room named Ned...

Regarding the presentation.....

The Beats Exercise: It's the subscriptions, not the hardware.

The presentation was about LiDAR, and a new way to monetize it. That's a pretty good reason that they talked only about LiDAR.

• The Microvision presentation changed no timelines...
• The Presentation described a means of increasing revenue with LiDAR

For a good summary of what's up, check here (key point below. Give Snowboard credit.)

Tech Alliances - Reuters

Keeping it REALLY Simple.

 Benchmark --- LAZR  -- Upstart LiDAR company.

Approximate Valuation: 10 Billion. (MicroVision's LiDAR is better)

At the same value: 10 Billion / 152 Million = $66

I consider the near eye display to be worth MORE than the LiDAR -- it certainly I think will be at least as widely used. Now that we have a value for LiDAR, I'm significantly adjusting my guess on NED -- I'm keeping my guess simple.

Market Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) is likely more important than fundamentals... And the fundamentals here are REALLY good.

Give it a comparable valuation:

$66 + $66 = $132


Review previous Value Posts

Value LiDAR

The Beats Exercise 

Near Eye Display

Apple September Event -- Augmented Reality

 Interesting AR leaning imagery... :-)

MacRumors

The Beats Exercise

Beats sold to Apple for 3.2 Billion. Why?

This was a mysterious acquisition when it happened. Not too difficult to make a new kind of headset, but that was what everyone saw when they purchased it.

Why did Apple buy Beats?


Apple's Beats Acquisition has already paid off

Indeed, Apple Music would launch in June 2015, and amass 10 million subscribers by January 2016 -- 20 million paid users that December. Less than two years later, and after some redesigns, it would double its tally to 40 million. Sure, the company hasn't caught Spotify globally, and it may never be able to. But in the US, Apple reportedly has more paying users than its biggest rival.

The reason for the price wasn't obvious --- but it was there.

It was not for the hardware, but for the number of subscriptions it could sell.

So, you need to ask yourself, how many paying subscriptions could MicroVision's technology enable?

Microsoft office is a subscription.

In the world of AR there will likely be subscription services for education, games, business applications, or additional fees just to have AR service.

Interactive projection(or display only) could improve the appeal media subscriptions significantly.

Can they sell in a few years 20 million subscriptions? There's your 3.8 Billion. ($27/share)


Secret History of Beats

“By 2013, Beats Electronics was a distressed business by any standard,” said the late PrivCo chief Sam Hamadeh. “The company was in a corner until Carlyle stepped in.” 

The Carlyle investment also gave Beats the funds it needed to keep expanding. That was especially important given the focus on its new streaming service. Beats Music celebrated its official launch in January 2014 with a concert at the Belasco Theater in Los Angeles, fronted by Dre, Diddy, Eminem, Nas, and Ice Cube. Inside, superstars from Drake to Pink mingled with label chiefs and talent agency executives at the oversubscribed show.

There were no reports of Apple executives in the crowd, but the computer giant was clearly watching. On May 8, the Financial Times reported that Apple had agreed to purchase Beats for $3.2 billion; that night, the grainy YouTube video of Dr. Dre’s impromptu celebration lit up the Internet.

******three weeks later, though, the deal went through—for a final price of $3 billion. “No traditional valuation measure applied to Beats as a business justifies the price,”

It seems pretty clear to me that it was purchased for getting subscriptions to increase. If it already paid off for the increase from doubling the number of paid users from 20 million to 40 million --- you have to ask yourself can the results from MicroVision's Near Eye Display OR their Interactive Display result in 20 million paid subscriptions? (I believe the answer is clearly yes it can -- significantly more than that.) so those 20 million paid subscribers are worth 

Race to Replace Smart Phones

Got the heads up on this from a couple of different sources last night and this morning.

This is where we are.

Given that Microsoft is shipping... it will be happening sooner than CNBC thinks.

CNBC

Fox News

The video is from Fox news.... I've had trouble getting it to play.

****

****

Most of the biggest names in Big Tech are racing to create smart glasses that we wear everywhere and that may replace our phones.

Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Snap, Facebook Apple, Magic Leap and others are all working on some form of smart glasses or headset that will change how we view the world around us. Instead of pulling a phone out of our pockets to talk to people or interact with apps, we may do these things simply by speaking to, and looking through, a set of glasses.

There’s a race to be the first to make a set of glasses that everyone will wear, which means they have to be fashionable and sleek enough to wear all day and everywhere you go. Advocates of the technology hope that you’ll one day be able to replace every screen in your life with just one pair of smart glasses.

Kuo -- Apple AR Glasses

....once it's developed we can sell it to whoever we want to....

Kuo is probably the best and most reliable Apple Watcher out there....

Media Post

TECHNOLOGY

Apple Plans AR Glasses Likely Aimed At Mass Market

• by P.J. Bednarski  @pjbtweet, Yesterday

Apple’s next big thing might be augmented reality glasses, according to a research note from TF Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who follows Apple. 

Kuo, in his Wednesday note, says that unlike other glasses tested in the marketplace before, Apple is planning for its specs to be used as an accessory to its iPhones -- not packed with processing hardware -- so they will be less bulky.  

******

Kuo originally said the glasses would be ready by mid-2020. In his new note, he said Apple expects the product to come to market early next year. Word of his report first came via website MacRumor.com.

******

Most notably, Microsoft marketed Hololens in 2016 and is now allowing pre-orders of Hololens 2, for up to $3,500. They're none too pretty.

The Hololens 2 website includes a video that appears to show surgeons, engineers and theatrical set designers using the glasses to guide their work.

Apple AR Glasses

Business Insider

2020

Catadioptric?

Basically it's bouncing a projection off something else.... which is what any AR system will have to do.

So, this word doesn't do anything to necessarily include or exclude MVIS's display, but I think Apple will want the best, and I'm quite sure that what Microvision has developed outclasses anything else out there.


A catadioptric optical system is one where refraction and reflection are combined in an optical system, usually via lenses (dioptrics) and curved mirrors (catoptrics).

Wikipedia Catadioptric

A story that can now be told

I attended a presentation during the last half of 2018, which resulted in a very interesting exchange. I haven't shared the story of it with more than a few people and then over the phone or in person. 

At some point during the last half of 2018, I attended a presentation hosted by an employee of a Seattle Tier One company. The presentation was about creating applications for a family of devices, and given primarily to independent developers.
At the end of the presentation there was a call for questions: a number of interesting questions were asked, and several were asking for details about upcoming features. Each of the questions about new features received the same response: "I'm sorry, I can't comment on any upcoming features." 

The same answer, each time, even if the potential feature would be relatively mundane and not particularly exciting.

After the third such response, I kept my hand down, knowing that my question would NOT be answered.

When all of the official presentation was complete, I realized that I did have a question that could be answered.

I approached the presenter, listened to the other people with additional questions, and when I had my chance I said, "I had a question that I know you can't answer, so I won't ask, but I have another one." 

As I took a breath to ask the good question, I heard: "That's okay, try me." 

"Okay" I said, "So when is this device getting the interactive laser display?"

The physical response to this was significant: shock, perhaps a little fear -- a definite recognition.

"You're right, I can't confirm or deny any such thing."

It appeared I'd struck a nerve, and I gave some reassurance afterwards that I wouldn't try to lay any verbal traps or tricks, and I wouldn't push for an answer. 

I never told the story here because I thought it could possibly jeopardize this person's position and future.

Recently, I contacted this person and asked if it was okay if I told the story now. A memory refresher was required, but the event was definitely remembered. "Ah, but I never confirmed or denied anything." -- and... "as long as you don't mention my name!"

So, I interpreted a reaction, which I think often speak pretty loudly. 

This person was adamant -- nothing was confirmed or denied, and DON'T USE MY NAME.

Visit to Taqtile -- Everyone is an Expert

I had an opportunity to meet Dirck Schou at Taqtile in Seattle this week.

Taqtile offers a suite of VR, mixed reality and mobile apps. The technology lets users view holographic maps and models of cities, build trade skills through VR learning and collaborate using 3D holographic visualization.
They are on the front lines of making 3D computing useful.  They are known for Holomaps. (Which have been demonstrated by Microsoft)

The enthusiasm for this tech is huge, and they are able to easily share one person's expertise with any number of other people. The results are extremely promising, with error reduction, time and cost savings.

I'll admit I was rather hung up on using it to train people, but there are often things that need to be done -- but only rarely.... with these tools, it's possible to simply record a procedure --- and the next person, using Hololens, could be walked through the entire procedure and do it exactly, without having to learn it.

In their meeting room I walked through a pre-flight of a Cessna 172 -- as though the airplane were in the room with us. It was fantastic.

---- the bottom line is that the benefits of this go straight to the bottom line. There is an immediate and measurable benefit to using this tech.

It's difficult to find investing opportunities where this is true and it's still unknown.  (people still think this is science fiction, but it's real.)




I see Manifest like the Adobe Creative Suite for Hololens. Their tagline is "Everyone is an expert." Their software can help people easily take an augmented reality device (they work with Magic Leap, Hololens & iPad... other devices were mentioned.)

AUTHOR
Subject matter experts (Authors) can intuitively create stored step-by-step procedures with minimal training. Manifest does not require specialized knowledge of 3D, CAD publishing tools, or coding to create guided content.


ANNOTATE
Overlay markers and position indicators to identify key components and locations upon real-world equipment. Text instructions, 3D ink annotations, and attached document bookmarks can be created with ease.


CAPTURE
In situ recording of multimedia content like videos, pictures, and audio using a HoloLens, Magic Leap, or iPad.


COMPOSE
Utilize the Manifest web portal to easily add content such as static or animated 3D models, existing videos & pictures, as well as document & diagram attachments.

" Anyone can create content on real world equipment. Use Manifest software on a device or the Manifest web portal to quickly author stored procedures."

"With Manifest, Flow can offer demos of their featured waterjet cutting equipment like never before. Manifest allows for marketing content to be displayed over real equipment in a trade show or showroom environment, or over a digital replica so potential customers can see how it will fit in their space. Embedded video content enables prospective clients to see how the real model functions."

Holomaps by Taqtile

Product Adoption...

Very few of even the Microvision investors I talk to have actually tried 3D computing.

If you read this and haven't tried it yet, go to your nearest Microsoft store and try something 3D.

Will it be successful? It has to be. It's just better in every way...

How successful will large screens (and large interactive screens) with a tiny form factor and extremely low power consumption be? (very popular)

How successful will a scanning LiDAR be, that can identify friendly people and unlock at your front door sometimes and lock it at others? It can help with security, and with all kinds of automation?

• Large screens, tiny form factor
• Large interactive screens, tiny form factor
• Scanning LiDAR (for security, automation, mapping, self driving vehicles)
• Near Eye displays for 3D computing.

Key components for multiple emerging technologies... How successful can that be?

Probably as successful as cameras have been... 

I'm going to hang on to my shares in this company for a long time... 

Nothing to Save the Smart phone market?

Thanks Joe

Then again, some of us know better than that.


Business Insider -- more at the source.




Others, like Samsung, Huawei, and Motorola, are forging ahead in the smartphone market, with bets that new technologies like high-speed 5G wireless internet and foldable screens will entice people to upgrade. Samsung alone is expected to ship this year a 5G-compatible version of the Samsung Galaxy S10, as well as the delayed Galaxy Fold foldable smartphone.

***********************
Companies including Apple, Facebook, Microsoft, Samsung, Google-backed startup Magic Leap, and even "Fortnite" developer Epic Games all consider AR to be the next great computing interface. Microsoft and Magic Leap already have AR goggles on the market, with Apple said to be working on "smart glasses" that could be unveiled as soon as this year.

It's pretty clear that all of these companies are looking to AR as the next big gold rush in tech, following the slow stagnation of the smartphone industry.

They may be right — it's hard to imagine it not happening, given the sheer scale of the investment that every company is making in the market.

Microsoft Presentation....

I must admit I've only watched part of this so far...

99%+ confidence that MVIS is providing the near eye display for this device. 

3D computing is going to be bigger than PC's.

One of the most important things about this, is the statement they've made a number of times: "anyone can build their own Hololens." -- delivered in slightly different terms here. (If I remember correctly, "the democratization of mixed reality.")

This is going to be huge -- and remember both Microvision AND Hololens are almost entirely unknowns by the general public. (and the investing public!)

Microsoft expects this to be bigger than the PC. I think they are correct. In a couple of years it's going to be a different world.

3D Computing will be a GIGANTIC leap forward

Since human beings first started recording data to share they could work only in two dimensions... that's true until now, but that's changing.

We added audio and video, which helped of course, but even video is two dimensional. We can fake it, but it's not that useful, and you still need to be anchored to a chair to use it -- sort of. (With smartphones and tablet computers,  you can abandon the chair, and get your video or other data wherever you happen to be. PicoP display only can feature here.)

The Clay Tablet with Cuniform and the iPad, are the same in that they are two-dimensional.

The clay tablet was a huge leap forward from having to speak or demonstrate information in person at all times. That concept became much more user friendly as materials improved: first to papyrus, then paper. Then duplication improved -- scribes, the printing press, huge improvements on the printing press over centuries, then we started using electronics and duplication could happen millions of times instantly.

So, what happens now?

Doing is going to get easier. Learning is going to get a lot easier. A new teaching tool will make it possible to make people much more effective -- smarter and more capable. Which will improve life significantly for most people.

Information and entertainment could be layered everywhere.

The difference between 2D doing stuff and 3D doing stuff? I've been trying to figure out how to relay that effectively for a while now. Mostly because there aren't many good examples depicting what 3D computing will actually look like.

Auto fuel and hydraulic systems... 

If you work on cars now, you have to have developed some skills at reading schematics.. and you must have the experience of finding what is referenced on the schematic and finding it in reality... it's a significant skill set.  You get pictures like the above... that's it.

What it's depicting looks like this in reality. (Now take the picture below and put it in motion -- zooming in and out -- superimposed on the actual vehicle AS you work on it.) What was very difficult before becomes an order of magnitude easier.



That's going to be the difference.

I can't wait to learn languages with Hololens. Imagine being able to walk around and have an immensely patient teacher telling you what everything is in a foreign language all day long. What used to take years will take a month or two.

Tech companies know that this is going to be huge, and all the big tech companies are getting involved..... selling shovels to gold miners.

Teaching and learning

Planting Seeds, Rolling dice

While everyone is focused on Hololens, I just remind myself that there's a lot of room in Augmented Reality that is beyond Hololens. The makers of those systems will be looking for the best display. 

There's another company that has a lot of patents that mention MicroVision.

Remember they're getting developers to create AR content BEFORE they have a specifically AR device to use to do it.


AppleInsider
Cook claimed he's "never been more optimistic" about where Apple is going, according to Bloomberg. The company saw a rough December quarter in which iPhone sales fell 15 percent year-over-year, and most analysts don't expect them to resume growth until this fall's models ship.

The executive didn't elaborate on what future products he meant, but Apple is known to be working on an augmented reality headset and self-driving car technology. Both are potential gambles, given intense competition in the autonomous car space, and the absence of any affordable, mainstream AR headsets. Products like the Magic Leap One and Microsoft's HoloLens have so far targeted niche audiences like businesses.

9 Augmented Reality Stocks to Enhance your portfolio

They haven't figured out yet that its all but certain that Microvision is in the Hololens.... but it's an AR stock to enhance your portfolio.

It's heavy on the advertisement, but the source is here:

Investorplace

AR Stocks to Enhance Your Portfolio: Microvision, Inc. (MVIS)

For the record, Microvision, Inc. (NASDAQ:MVIS) and Microsoft are two different companies. The aforementioned Microsoft is the maker of the HoloLens, which may be on the verge of becoming a must-have. Microvision’s role in the augmented reality movement, however, it a little bit different. It’s the maker of laser (and the supporting technologies) that can project images and data into glass.

The most practical and tangible use of its PicoP(r) technology is the projection of the information normally found on a car’s dashboard up to the windshield, allowing a driver to keep his or her eyes on the road. It’s the same basic concept being used by Google Glass, Microsoft’s HoloLens and the like though — melding the benefits of a transparent material with valuable information overlaid.

Apples biggest manufacturer becomes its top rival

On the Motley Fool.... I suspect it's only a matter of time before the Fool talks about a cool new smartphone feature for smartphones from Foxconn/Sharp.

Foxconn’s Sharp overtakes Sony as the country’s second largest smartphone maker.

Leo Sun
(TMFSunLion)
Feb 20, 2019 at 6:30PM

Foxconn (NASDAQOTH:HNHAF), the Taiwanese contract manufacturing giant that makes Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhones, has transformed its Sharp subsidiary into Apple's biggest rival in Japan over the past three years. Research firm Canalys claims that Sharp controlled 9.8% of Japan's smartphone market in the fourth quarter of 2018, putting it in second place after Apple's 56% share.

Apple still holds a commanding lead, but Sharp's growth -- which helped it surpass Sony's (NYSE: SNE) 8.6% share during the fourth quarter -- could be a worrisome development for the iPhone maker. Is Foxconn quietly evolving from a longtime partner into a formidable rival?

What is Foxconn's strategy?

Foxconn, which has manufactured every iPhone to date, generates nearly half of its revenue from Apple. Therefore, slowing sales of iPhones are a major threat to its core business. To reduce its dependence on Apple and other contract manufacturing clients, Foxconn acquired Sharp in 2016 and revived the struggling consumer electronics brand by launching new OLED TVs and smartphones.

****

So why is Sharp gaining ground in Japan?

In the past, smartphone makers in Japan benefited from aggressive subsidies and carrier promotions. This made premium handsets like iPhones cheaper and more appealing. However, Japanese regulators now want carriers to stop subsidizing device sales with monthly subscriptions in a bid to simplify contracts and promote fair competition.

This means that the cost of iPhones, which are already at historic highs, will keep rising and cause Japanese consumers to either shun upgrades or buy cheaper devices from lower-end device makers like Sharp. However, Canalys also expects Sharp to struggle with the elimination of subsidies, which made its cheap devices even cheaper.

Apple Preparing for life after iPhone

Interesting stuff.

As you read this, remember that Apple just created its first head of AR Marketing.

They're also talking here about a lot of video streaming.

Writing off display-only is WAY premature.

Wall Street Journal

Apple Inc. AAPL -0.22% is shaking up leadership and reordering priorities across its services, artificial intelligence, hardware and retail divisions as it works to reduce the company’s reliance on iPhone sales.

The changes, which can be traced back to last year, have included high-profile hires, noteworthy departures, meaningful promotions and consequential restructurings. They have rattled rank-and-file employees unaccustomed to frequent leadership changes and led Apple to put several projects on hold while new managers are given a chance to reassess priorities, according to people familiar with the matter.

The primary reasons for the shifts vary by division. But collectively, they reflect Apple’s efforts to transition from an iPhone-driven company into one where growth flows from services and potentially transformative technologies.

*************

“This is a sign the company is trying to get the formula right for the next decade,” said Gene Munster, a longtime Apple analyst and managing partner at venture-capital firm Loup Ventures. “Technology is evolving, and they need to continue to tweak their structure to be sure they’re on the right curve.”

*************

Apple spent $14.24 billion on research and development last year, a 23% increase from the year prior. Though it continues to work on projects in the augmented reality, autonomous vehicle and health sectors, it hasn’t yet released a major new product in those areas. Sales of its latest gadgets—Apple Watch, AirPods and HomePod—have been mixed, and none have offered the pricing power or volumes of the iPhone, one of the best-selling products in history.

Mr. Cook, who prides himself on his long-term management focus, has been anticipating the maturation of the smartphone industry since as early as 2010 and planning for how to grow as phone sales slow, former employees say. Apple this year stopped reporting the number of iPhones it sells, a move many observers interpreted as an end of the smartphone salad days.

Though the iPhone still contributes about two-thirds of Apple sales, the company has encouraged investors to focus on a growing services business, which includes streaming-music subscriptions, app-store sales and mobile payments. Services are expected to top $50 billion in sales by fiscal 2020 and contribute more than about 60% of Apple’s total revenue growth over five years, according to Morgan Stanley , which estimates the iPhone fueled 85% of growth during the prior five years.

Apple's first Head of AR marketing

I'll make a wild guess and say that we'll probably hear about what he's up to pretty soon if they're making this public.



" Frank Casanova, has a new title: "Senior Director, Worldwide Product Marketing at Apple Augmented Reality." 

Bloomberg

9to5Mac

Engadget   -- Shows how important the tech is.

IOT - Price Calculator

More than one request has been made for a price target calculator that includes smart speakers. (or for specifically smart speakers.)

This would be primarily to see the market potential of MicroVision's Interactive display.

There aren't many years of data to establish any kind of trend of only smart speakers, which makes this kind of thing problematic.

It's also too limiting. 

Many of the devices in the "Internet of things" are going to be excellent places for interactive displays: Like the smart thermostat as an example. What used to be a coil of metal with a mercury switch now has the brains of a high-end 1990's PC -- and when you can crunch that much data, it begs for a display. When you have that much intelligence on a thermostat, you can connect it to your calendar, program your days off, or set up profiles for events. Some way of programming this remotely may be common, but a way to adjust it at the source would be very useful, and desirable.

How big is the internet of things going to get? It's going to get probably gigantic, and where it goes is anyone's guess. There are a lot of strange connected devices, and nearly anything that is connected might be wanting for a screen & controller. Easier to design and manufacture than adding buttons, and complex button patterns. (Short list from the linked article: Toothbrush, flip-flops, luggage, camera for dogs, salt shaker, umbrellas, trash cans, mirror, condom(yes, sorry), toaster, liquor decanter, wine bottle, fork, etc.

Ikea is going to be launching smart blinds -- I think smart blinds are going to be very popular soon, because they could help regulate the temperature in a home, save energy, and make a place more livable.

If we take Gartner's numbers and assume that we're going to add 12 Billion smart devices in the next year.... and we get 1% adoption of smart displays in those 12 billion devices -- that could be 120 million interactive laser displays in use.

If half of them are "smart speakers" and adoption is stronger than 1% of those, the number could be much higher.

Interesting new things could appear from nowhere -- remember the smart speaker, is a very new product category, and all of a sudden everyone seems to be competing in the space. 


ZDNET

Big and getting bigger -- there are already more connected things than people in the world. Analyst Gartner calculates that around 8.4 billion IoT devices were in use in 2017, up 31 percent from 2016, and this will likely reach 20.4 billion by 2020. Total spending on IoT endpoints and services will reach almost $2tn in 2017, with two-thirds of those devices found in China, North America and Western Europe, said Gartner.

Out of that 8.4 billion devices, more than half will be consumer products like smart TVs and smart speakers. The most-used enterprise IoT devices will be smart electric meters and commercial security cameras, according to Gartner.