Last night, before the investor meeting in Redmond, a collection of investors -- representing lots of shares -- got together for dinner.
One comment struck me, at the time and gave food for thought for the rest of the evening.
"Microvision is a lot like a biotech." Investing in it is a lot like investing in a Biotech company.
In that Biotech companies, investors invest a lot of money with no guarantees that it will meet approval, etc, but that if it does... the returns are huge.
Sure there haven't been earnings, but if we compare to a biotech company, this company has the equivalent of a cure for cancer -- and also a side-effect free cure for obesity --electronics version.
The near eye display has the potential to change cure sore necks by putting the display front and center when you're standing up, and the LiDAR to prevent accidents, and serve numerous other functions by allowing machinery to see.
Not delivering income at the moment is problematic for investors, of course. But there is solid value under that.
I'm offering a timeline of recent events. I think the AR space is heating up significantly, and someone is going to make a move soon.
If we are priced taking into account the enormous number of subscriptions that the near eye display can enable.... that's great thing. (The last presentation made noises about a subscription-like model for LiDAR)
...will the ultimate valuation of the NED vertical take into consideration the enormous potential for sales of subscriptions through these devices? My bet is yes.
In my humble opinion, that would make it worth more than Activision. (That's how I see it, you make up your own mind.)
March 2021
“We believe that MR/AR products could replace all display-equipped electronics in the long term” (CultofMac)
September 2021
Josh Miller -- From Microsoft (and before that Microvision) Becomes director of Display Design at META/Facebook LinkedIn
FACEBOOK/META does Rayban (see list of links below.)
Applescoop has him at 80+% reliability -- when dealing with a company that is as secretive as Apple, that's very impressive. (His run of good calls is MUCH longer than what is on the linked page
The development must be viewed through the prism of the ongoing talent war between Apple and Meta, formerly Facebook. According to reports so far, Meta has been poaching key engineers from Apple’s silicon, augmented reality, wearable, hardware and software divisions for the past few months.
This tells me that they're in a bigger hurry than they used to be, or things have heated up and they need to accelerate their previous delivery targets.
If you can own your own OS you can have more control. If you do it faster -- you may have to share with someone else, but there may be additional benefits to being faster. (Android has been the platform so far)
"We can make HUGE money with subscriptions to these games." MicroVision Representative:
"I know you want to buy our Near Eye vertical based only on the "widget" value it has.
We are going to sell it to you based on the widget value PLUS the value you will get from being able to sell future subscriptions. (and ads, and in-app purchases...)
In the case of Activision, that's $68.7 Billion for 31 games.
Steam has 50,000 games. It looks like the fruit company wants to make near eye display replace all the screens... your move.
{maybe we need to focus on ads... just imagine how intrusive Facebook could be when it highlights the business it's advertising as you walk past it.}
Facebook-Ray Ban Glasses (PR started in September 2021)
1st Things first. Whatever you buy or sell is on you.
I know this is read by other people, but it started as a place for me to keep my notes and not lose them -- and that's largely what it still is, and I haven't been keeping as up on things as I used to.
Posts are rare now, largely because there are a lot more eyes on Microvision than there used to be and you can see a lot of discussion, references and new information on the r/mvis reddit board...
The most valuable part of MicroVision is the Near Eye display.
As much as the focus of the investing public is on LiDAR, don't forget this.
it's big enough that I think that LiDAR could serve its primary function as a distraction.
Apple / Barrons -- AR device 4th Quarter 2022. (Ming-Chi Kuo rarely gets things wrong.)
"Apple will launch an augmented-reality headset in the fourth quarter of 2022, and could sell more than a billion of the new devices over the next 10 years, one analyst asserted in a research note Friday."
The number of subscriptions that can be sold with AR devices is ENORMOUS. If we have the value proposition for near eye display changing to emulate the way the value proposition has just been modified for LiDAR as illustrated in the recent Microvision LiDAR presentation.... then.... we will do really well.
Microsoft has gotten HUGE increases in productivity with Hololens, and AR Games... will be gigantic.
Microvision stock is heavily manipulated.
(Trading experts tell me it's about 60% manipulated down)
Approximate Valuation: 10 Billion. (MicroVision's LiDAR is better)
At the same value: 10 Billion / 152 Million = $66
I consider the near eye display to be worth MORE than the LiDAR -- it certainly I think will be at least as widely used. Now that we have a value for LiDAR, I'm significantly adjusting my guess on NED -- I'm keeping my guess simple.
Market Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) is likely more important than fundamentals... And the fundamentals here are REALLY good.
Not even the most awesome products hit the ground in a frenzy. A recent example is Instantpot : Founded in 2009, started moving in 2014, a frenzy in 2017. (Overnight success! says the media.) We're sitting on two products that appear to be getting this kind of growth and adoption. LiDAR and Near Eye Display. LiDAR will be everywhere. So will Near Eye Display.
Good
charts of adoption are difficult to find. You eventually end up with some kind of distorting compression that changes it in a way that the visual representation is distorted. ( partly because, as you'll
see, they're difficult to fit on a screen and be readable at both ends.) This page from PetaPixel. It has a couple of very interesting charts of adoption.
This
is of CAMERA Sales.... Sucks to be in cameras? unless you think you
just went back to sort of normal from a decade of amazing.
If
we add cameras that are included on cellphones, we get a bit of a
different picture. The GOLD area is cameras on phones..... except they
fade out at the top of the graph.
Well, happily, they put something on there so we could see the top
of the graph --- but the screen graphics kind of break down. Well,
there you are with cellphones included.
That's how a market can grow.
LiDAR is for more than cars, and Near Eye displays are probably going to replace your cellphone screen in a few years.
The Value of MicroVision to it's share holders is going to be a portion of the total value it provides to people.... what will that be?
The Value of Use..
"I read a study that measured the efficiency of locomotion for various
species on the planet. The condor used the least energy to move a
kilometer. Humans came in with a rather unimpressive showing about a
third of the way down the list....That didn't look so good, but then
someone at Scientific American had the insight to test the efficiency of
locomotion for a man on a bicycle and a man on a bicycle blew the
condor away. That's what a computer is to me: the computer is the most
remarkable tool that we've ever come up with. It's the equivalent of a
bicycle for our minds."
--- Steve Jobs
The Near Eye display will allow us to use that bicycle for our minds everywhere we go, everywhere we are, and with everything we do. Increasing efficiency, improving productivity. Allowing creativity to be harnessed much more easily, errors to be found and corrected earlier.
The benefits of a PC will no longer limited to a desktop, laptop, or something we have to sit down and focus on. It could be there all the while we are doing.
Kipman wasn't lying when he said they built that new game-changing device around the display that they... er... (MICROVISION) invented... While I think they're scoundrels for claiming credit for the display it is a testament to how amazing it is.
Taqtile's motto is "Everyone is an expert." That illustrates the value very well.
My visit to Taqtile:
making people who don't know act as though they know. Giving them a knowledge advantage immediately. (You can walk into a facility and perform processes recorded by an expert. You don't have to be the expert to do it.) Particularly important is Knowledge Capture
Will it GAME? Do not forget Pokemon Go. Games are HUGE, and I think the effort to come up with games for this will be huge... do not forget that there was a special introduction of a gaming company at one of the Hololens presentations.
Gaming? Microsoft bought Minecraft, has it for Hololens... and it's really popular.
How many companies to make AR devices using MicroVision's display?
Well, we know Microsoft, Apple, Google, Magic Leap, Facebook, and probably the big computer makers (Dell, Lenovo, Sony, Acer, etc.) will all want in on Augmented Reality.
(Remember, Kipman said "anyone can make their own hololens" and Trimble IS making their own Hololens.)
Apple is doing it --- there are enough patents and leaks to show this. Some of what they are doing is in the open with their "AR Kit."
Google Had "Glass"
Magic Leap is AR (associated with Google)
I'm nearly certain that Hololens1 and Magic Leap used the same display.
Facebook has AR/VR -- And also has a substantial facility right up the road from MicroVision HQ. It is unmarked and apparently. secret. (There is nothing on the outside that says "Facebook," nothing on any vehicle that brags about Facebook, no people wearing anything labeled with it can be seen outside. -- I took a picture of the front door a couple of years ago, and my phone did ask me if I wanted to tag the picture I took at Oculus.
Behind it is another facility that is part of Microsoft, and there is a shuttle running between the two campuses.
They will all need the best near-eye display they can get. There is nothing better yet on the horizon that looks like it will be serviceable. When that appears, it may still be years before it's usable and possible to manufacture in quantity.
A side-note here. We may look at a device and think that it looks simple -- the good things are. MicroVision's core tech, which is essentially a vibrating mirror, looks really simple. Getting it to work as it has to -- and then also assembling the components is anything but simple. Making the sub-components-- the mirror, the magnets, etc., to the precision required is not a simple process. Developing a reliable way to do this in quantity had to be extraordinarily difficult and time consuming. This has made it difficult in the past for holders of MicroVision -- because we were waiting, and it seemed like nothing was happening. This is now a hurdle that MicroVision has cleared. Any potential competing technology has yet to clear this hurdle, and it's a significant one. The distance between prototype and released product is huge.
What are the "killer" applications?
An important question with any new technology. (If you have the first fax machine -- it's cool but useless... there has to be something to DO with it.)
This should not be a problem with AR.
Personal computers were around prior to the early 1980's. They were basically toys, things to tinker with, until the killer app, arrived.
In marketing terminology, a killer application (commonly shortened to killer app) is any computer program or software that is so necessary or desirable that it proves the core value of some larger technology, such as computer hardware, a video game console, software, a programming language, a software platform, or an operating system.[1]In other words, consumers would buy the (usually expensive) hardware
just to run that application. A killer app can substantially increase
sales of the platform on which it runs.[2][3]
For the PC the killer application was the spreadsheet. It took what could be an astonishingly tedious task (prone to errors) and made it happen in a twinkle. (No time to explain it in detail here, but trust me and check here: Visicalc BBC)
After the arrival of the spreadsheet, the PC went crazy.
The killer app for Hololens?
There are several already. Trimble has one - Overlay of design in the physical world. This increases efficiency in construction hugely and doesn't take a lot of imagination to see how it would. It will save a lot of time and therefore a lot of money. Problems will become apparent more quickly, be solved sooner, and best -- they'll be solved while they're potential problems instead of real ones.
"Benefits every industry that deals with 3D spatial data." Nearly everything we deal with is "3D." -- so the appeal is broad.
Knowledge Capture. This can be used already, and it's huge. You don't need to "train" someone for a job, you have your smartest person do it.... and those who come after can copy. (Everyone's an expert.)
What I am looking forward to most, is being able to learn languages.
An endlessly patient teacher that scans the environment and labels everything in the target language? Sign me up.
How big will the use of Augmented Reality Be?
Microsoft itself said that Hololens would be bigger than the PC.
Microsoft's
Stock was worth about $0.09 in 1986; 10 years later in 1996 it was
worth $9.00 (A 9,900% Gain.) If we consider Microsoft until the
introduction of the X-Box (2001) You get about $30/share (A 33,000%
Gain) -- That's perspective on "how big can augmented reality be."
The
PC is huge, because it's nearly ubiquitous. It's everywhere. Hololens
will be more everywhere, because it can be 'more everywhere' -- not
anchored to a desk, table or lap. If you want to use a PC you have to
look away from whatever else might be around and focus on the PC... not
so with hololens.
In 1976 the number of PCS being used
in the US was effectively zero, Apple showed up then and sold some. Then
Radio Shack hat the TSR-80 --- by the year 2000 PCs were literally
everywhere. They continue to get better.
How much will they earn?
(and how much will someone pay for those earnings?)
Any answer to this question is guesswork. The value will be significant, because the value it brings to the user will be significant.
There is no good way to come up with this number... {I readily admit that this is guesswork. You are reading guesses. Don't make your decisions based on my guesswork, base your decisions on your own guesswork. If you have a solid critique or method of guessing that you think is better than mine, I'd be happy to read, consider and possibly post it too.... if we get enough people working on it, we might actually arrive at a good guess.
To do this, I'm going to plop some possibly numbers into the Personal Computer "killer application" and see where the numbers lead.
I like to come up with a couple of frameworks of thinking (always willing to throw an unworkable framework out) and sort of come up with a range. (And after wrestling with this for quite some time, have decided to rely on the fairly basic model below. --- it could be wildly off... I admit that, but it involves the least guessing.)
Method 1 (I claim no accuracy, this is a framework.)
$70 Billion Euros for the next four years --- my SWAG then is $100 billion in the next FIVE years, which is my preferred time horizon. (since a euro is 1.1 USD I'll consider them equivalent.)
Assume that a display would account for about 10% of the price of the computer. ($900 computer, $900 software + $200 for a monitor)
Use 10% of the total AR market for display
Use 1/2 of the 10% as the MicroVision share.
$100 Billion * .1 =$10 Billion *.5 = $5Billion.
Using this method my SWAG(scientific wild-ass guess) is $5Billion (Divide into the 140 million shares = $35/share (To be conservative, cut it in half again) = $17/share (This vertical)
After spending some time thinking about it, that's the only guess I'm willing to make here... it's taking an "accepted number" and extrapolating. Trying to anticipate the market with all its variables is a daunting task, and probably not worth the effort, because EACH stage is guess work. I could be off by miles already -- but I think the guess is reasonable and the theory sound.
Some of the basis I'm using came from the video below. (It says $70 Billion in the next four years)
Errors happen all the time with data... they happen even more with speculative future-anticipating (I know this) Read this for some background: I'm skeptical of Data
This is the best explanation I've seen so far about the impact mixed reality can have. As though you could turn on different notation for the world. Most of us won't want to see energy and water or communications layers. Being able to see a "transportation" layer could help us find our way around a large city with multiple modes of public transport.
This would be incredible at helping us do things. And they plan a LOT of entertainment layers.
I found this to be an excellent summary article...
News getting out is going to be what gets the stock price moving. Most of the world is still ignorant of AR, MR Hololens, Magic Leap, and all the others. Nearly everyone exposed to it expresses disbelief that it can be done.
Messed up on the key link yesterday, so this is a repost. This is one source that found
AND.... it references Microvision through the link mentioning the patent
Hololens Reality News "During the presentation at MWC, Alex Kipman, Microsoft technical fellow and head honcho of HoloLens, noted that the HoloLens 2 employs a microelectromechanical (MEMS) laser scanner to achieve the wider field of view, a fact that was foreshadowed by a patent applicationpublished by the US Patent and Trademark Office in last June and filed by Microsoft in Dec. 2016." --- They found Microvision here.
The display is arguably the most important aspect of any augmented reality headset. One of the biggest criticisms of the original HoloLens was its limited field of view of around 35 degrees. For the sequel, Microsoft has managed to more than double the field of view while maintaining image fidelity at 47 pixels per degree of sight.
I had a chance to go try Magic Leap today. Of the major players this is the last one for me to try. (although everything will probably change in less than a week.)
If I were to make my best guess it would be that the displays contained in Magic Leap are the same as in the recent version of the Hololens.
As far as I could tell, the field of view, opacity and brightness are identical. -- caveat being that I'm operating from memory on the Hololens... although I did go back and see Hololens last weekend.)
I think MicroVision can be included in every company's near eye displays, just like they can use the same lightbulbs or processors in numerous applications. Nomad had better field of view.
The differences in user interface, setup and content are significant.
Unlike the Hololens (current version) the computer isn't self-contained in the head mount. The Round puck thing the same size as the phone needs to be carried with the unit. It fits over a pocket (half in the pocket, half out, which is pretty smart and convenient. Although it does get dropped.)
The little device seen through the head piece is a "wand" that you use as a pointer. When you use this as you're using the device, it's as though you have a laser wand, and you use it to point and click. I'd say it's more intuitive than the gesture control of the Hololens, but it is an extra piece that you need to keep track of.
Regular users I think would prefer the gesture control, because then after a short learning curve you don't need extra tools. I wasn't allowed to take pictures in the space. There were a number of groups of people working on some very interesting looking things, and a lot of people sitting at desks looking at code. Here's what they're working on They do seem to have some interesting company in the building.
It's in an unmarked building. (I found the building, took a picture of it, and ironically, my phone asked if I wanted to publish the photo taken at Oculus.)
However, one supplier of MEMS laser scanner displays, MicroVision, announced last April that it had secured a $24 million development contract with a major technology company to produce such a display system.
"We believe the LBS display markets have tremendous opportunity for growth, and we are extremely pleased that a major technology company has decided to work with MicroVision and our PicoP scanning technology in the development of its product," said Alexander Tokman, president and CEO of MicroVision. "We believe that our systems expertise and the ability of our patented LBS technology to create a display that produces high resolution images from a low power, small form factor engine were key contributors to winning this business."
More and more AR and VR are showing up, and getting more mainstream. A couple of tastes from the Sundance Film Festival The Verge
Facebook-owned VR giant Oculus often shows off new narrative projects at Sundance, even when they’re not on the official slate. This year, it revealed an immersive theater experience called The Under Presents, which featured human actors playing roles in a surrealist cabaret. The high-profile AR startup Magic Leap also made its Sundance debut this year in New Frontier, where three pieces used its Magic Leap One headset.
BEST AUGMENTED REALITY: A JESTER’S TALE
Created by: Asad J. Malik
A Jester’s Tale is something between a fairy tale and a CAPTCHA test, and it’s by far the weirdest of three Magic Leap-based installations. To experience it, you walk into a physical re-creation of a child’s bedroom, at which point, a disembodied entity demands proof of your humanity to continue. The test? Using voice and object recognition, help act out an odd, disturbing story about a child and his pet rats.
As the patent explains: “The disclosed optical system thus eliminates the need for both a dedicated image-generation optical system and a dedicated terrain-mapping optical system within a device that requires these dual functionalities…the disclosed optical system represents a substantial advance toward producing compact and lightweight NED devices.”
However, current MEMS technology places an upper limit on mirror scan rates, in turn limiting display resolution. As an example, a 27 kHz horizontal scan rate combined with a 60 Hz vertical scan rate may yield a vertical resolution of 720p. Significantly higher vertical resolutions (e.g., 1440p, 2160p) may be desired, particularly for near-eye display implementations, where 720p and similar vertical resolutions may appear blurry and low-resolution. While an increase in the horizontal and/or vertical scan rate would increase display resolution, the former may be technologically infeasible while the latter increases power consumption. Further, high scan rates may at least partially constrain mirror scan angle and aperture, where larger values are also desired. Additionally, supporting higher resolution also may require a larger mirror size due to the diffraction limit associated with smaller “pixel” sizes. The use of such a larger mirror may further increase the difficulties in achieving higher resolutions with scanning displays, as the larger mirror leads to a lower scanning frequency.
*********
The technology is applicable to a variety of output methods, including waveguides such as in the HoloLens, but also laser projection TVs and other systems which uses lasers and MEMS.
From the patent [0051] Another example provides a method of displaying an image comprising directing light from two or more offset lasers toward a scanning mirror system, and scanning light from the two or more offset lasers in a first direction at a higher frequency and in a second direction at a lower frequency to thereby scan the laser light in an interlaced pattern and form the image. In such an example, the method alternatively or additionally may comprise mapping a gaze direction determined via an eye tracking sensor to a region in the image, and adjusting one or more of the scan rate in the second direction and the phase offset based on the region in the image. In such an example, scanning the light from the two or more offset lasers in the first direction alternatively or additionally may comprise scanning the light in the first direction at a frequency of 27 kHz to 35 kHz. In such an example, scanning the light from the two or more offset lasers alternatively or additionally may comprise scanning the light to form the image at a resolution between 1440p and 2160p. From Free Patents online Embodiments of the present technology using the beam scanning assembly 100 described above will now be described with reference to the views of FIGS. 3-15 and the flowchart of FIG. 16. FIGS. 3a, 3b and 3c illustrate a structure and operation of a first embodiment of the MEMS laser scanner 200 according to the present technology. FIG. 3a shows image light incident on the optical element 102 at two different times. This figure illustrates the zero order diffracted light present since the diffraction gratings are not 100% efficient. This light does not contribute to the final image and would appear as a ghost so therefore some mechanism like a blocking aperture would be used to block the light from reaching the subsequent components in the optical system. FIGS. 3b and 3c show image light incident on the optical element 102 at two different times. These figures illustrate the formation of two separate fields of view by diffracting the display light onto the MEMS mirror 168 by two separate Bragg polarization gratings 170 and 171 as explained below. The image light is generated by a display engine 140 which emits image light in a step 300 that is modulated on a pixel-by-pixel basis by the controller 124. In embodiments, the display engine 140 may be a commercially available assembly, such as for example the PicoP™ display engine from Microvision, Inc. of Redmond, Wash.
Really busy making up for lost time yesterday, so this will be relatively brief...
Display was much better than the version I saw at CES, yet still with a fairly narrow field of view
Not sure of what the display is... Ghosting wasn't noticeable, (although we were in a fairly bright room) and resolution much improved over what I've seen before. (my understanding is that there are multiple versions out there now.)
Display had a "glass sandwich" lense
When I turned my head quickly, there were three dots (red, green and blue) in the middle of the FOV.
Still not the wide field of view that I expect from MVIS. (NOMAD had a MUCH wider field of view than this.)
Applications for business, gaming, education, etc will be amazing
I only saw one real application at CES (Looking at MRI of head)
Here got to see educational programs, analytic things, visit places, etc.
It was no problem to get the appointment to see it, so I recommend people try it.
It ran slowly at one point as I went from application to application, and when I turned around I realized I'd left a roomfull of open application windows behind me. It's really weird to see screens open littering a room. (and no one else can see them.)
At another point, I was looking at something and someone walked through my screen and stopped. The screen then looked like it had half a guy sticking through it (no content written on him, it was like he was stuck through a physical screen. (very strange, but cool.)
You can occasionally see the device scanning the room. (like they show in some of the videos.
If you pull up a "picture" of something... like the globe or a shark, you can walk around the thing and see it from different angles... or spin it with gestures.
You can make things look bigger, but that usually means making them further away. (field of view.)
It will take most people a few days to get used to the gesture control. It was sometimes difficult to control just because I either didn't know which gesture to do, or I had to think about it.
At some point these kinds of devices will have an as yet to be discovered set of unintended consequences. (After about 20 minutes, reality and the display kind of started to mentally blend... which was interesting.)
My thesis on Hololens (and other similar devices) is as follows:
Their utility for doing things, teaching, and having fun, is why they WILL be popular.
MicroVision has the best near eye displays tech. What I saw yesterday was the best I'd seen in a product other than Nomad so far, but in regards to FOV Nomad has it beaten easily. So whatever happens, no matter what anyone else comes up with Microvision will have a place at the table.
