Conference Call, Being disoriented & Half of One Percent

I've been really busy, didn't even have a chance to give the CC transcript a thorough read until yesterday.

It was interesting to get reactions from people about the CC for a few days.

Yes, it was disorienting. I wasn't particularly happy with the call: -- it wasn't what we expected, and some things will occur later than expected -- with confusion over class 1 vs class 3.

Some wording about "lead customers," that could cause confusion and lower numbers than we expected on we expect is Hololens.

I have little doubt that the long term prospects of MicroVision haven't changed.

"Very soon" or "imminent" mean different things when you're a small company, individual person or one of the largest commercial concerns in the world. 

I assume that the April 2017 contract means Hololens. They have been working on this project for a very long time. MicroVision produces one of many critical components. 

It also requires system software, and application software to be developed before release so that something can actually be done with it.

It's a difficult development process, and I'm sure the "chicken and egg" problem comes into play often.

There will be also marketing concerns, and market position questions that come into play -- that we don't consider when we come from the perspective of wanting to sell components to a company. (This, about jousting between AMD and NVIDIA is and interesting case study.)

* Class 1 vs class 3. I'm no laser expert, so I consulted one. Apparently the difference between the two classes is minimal from a purely physical view.

However... when it comes to the ability to market devices using lasers in different countries, the reduction in regulatory hoop-jumping may make it worth doing the switch. (if you have to run through various proofs to be sure class 3 is harmless, it could cause delays, and expenses that slow adoption down.... if the same brightness or near the same brightness can be delivered by class 1 lasers, it may well be worth the delay.)

* "Lead customers" -- I don't know, but based on everything I've seen prior to now, there are customers for these products. A "Lead Customer" may be the customer that MicroVision decides to favor as products are developed. Likely similar to near-eye display having multiple interested customers and MicroVision chose to focus on the company that got the April 2017 contract. 

There was still a clause in the contract that once development was done MicroVision can sell the results to whoever they want.

I'm not certain that this is exactly what was meant, but no other explanation so far has seems plausible to me.

* Hololens 

There still isn't "proof" that MicroVision is in Hololens, but enough circumstantial evidence has been accumulated that I at this point that I'm having a difficult time finding a place to doubt it. Those of us who are watching this company and those developments are mostly in the same position.

That doesn't mean, however that the rest of the investing world either sees this, or agrees with it. (In fact, most of the world still thinks that what Hololens can do is distant science fiction.)

This, I believe is very close. A lot of the payoff is going to come in the form of people wanting to get in... investor world FOMO.

To analyze that, look at the potential for the tech, and probable investor behavior when the tech becomes widely known.

MOST people don't sift through tech magazines looking for stuff to invest in, or assessing potential. They go to work, have fun on the weekends, and only pay a lot of attention when something gets a lot of buzz.... look at what happened with Bitcoin for the perfect example of Investor behavior.


Hololens Potential

Hololens and Spaceflight --- this article had very interesting specifics on the effect of Hololens in action doing things --- Hololens requires a near-eye display. 

• The team was able to cut down the time spent joining components and torquing bolts to precise specifications by 30 to 50 percent. Rather than having to thumb through the instructions to know how many pounds of pressure a specific bolt requires, that information is displayed directly atop the bolt by the HoloLens, Peterson explained.
• What used to take a technician a full 8-hour shift to complete can now be done in 15 minutes (15 minutes vs 480 minutes) (97% greater efficiency)
• What would take a pair of technicians three days to do can now be done by a single technician in two and a half hours. (5 hours vs 144 hours) (97% greater efficiency)
• an activity that normally takes eight shifts," Peterson said. "They completed it in six hours." (6 hours vs 64 hours) (90% greater efficiency)

These are measurable results that can't be ignored.... and it's ability to help people learn will be amazing. Once this is known, not only will there be a lot of people trying to get in on this as an investment, but they will on the suppliers as well, and MicroVision will (almost certainly) be one of them.

.... and don't forget Pokemon Go.

Anticipating investor reaction... 

This is where it can get fun. (This is all my own opinion... you can do what you want with it, but this is a significant reason I'm holding on tight to this company's stock)

As an example. Say an investor 2000 shares of Microsoft stock. This person doesn't pay much attention to it, except maybe watching the monthly price rise. Then a bunch of buzz happens about their new, amazing technology. 

So, you take a few hours, and look at it. You see this supplier that makes the amazing display. So the investor sells ONE share of Microsoft and puts it into MicroVision. Market order.

Do the math on what happens if Half of one percent of the money invested in Microsoft comes out of Microsoft and lands in Microvision. Rather than consider the upward pressure on the stock because of demand, just look at it as a one to one transfer. (It's not crazy talk.)