Wednesday, October 31, 2018

Customs and Border Patrol

Augmented Reality is going to be everywhere and it's going to come faster than we anticipate --- because it's going to be so useful.

Imagine the tediousness of the task a customs officer would have, looking at and in packages, and trying to figure out, with written descriptions whether or not things are counterfeit, legit, or concealing something else.

The efficiency and effectiveness of the people working here will be increased dramatically by this tech.

Holding the maker of the best AR display is going to be gold.



GCN - Technology, Tools & Tactics

In the latest project, CBP agents are using Microsoft HoloLens augmented-reality headsets to inspect goods for intellectual property rights violations.

Instead of referring to paper guides to verify the authenticity of an imported product, the agents use a HoloLens-enabled mobile app to instantly access product details and compare the reference images to the physical object they are examining. CBP is also considering an app for consumers that would allow them to test items such as pharmaceuticals to know if they are legitimate.

Tuesday, October 30, 2018

Nissan Leaf Ad Picture

Searching for more Background information.... but this is what they are imagining or working on.... 






Monday, October 29, 2018

Motley Fool... pay attention to Smart Speaker Market. -- UPDATED

In the right place at the right time, finally.

Google Smart Screen Walkthrough



Motley Fool

Keep an eye on this space

These tech giants' next big market focus is the home, and we're still in the early stages of this gold rush. Right now, Amazon still has a slight advantage because it was an early mover with its Echo devices, and its smart speakers remain an easy and natural way for consumers to buy products from its website.
Google is gaining ground with its Home and its Nest devices, but Facebook's Portal could hit a roadblock, given that users may have had their fill of Facebook-related privacy fiascos.
This market will be worth $138 billion by 2026, but the bigger opportunity for each of these companies is to lock users into their ecosystems, and then sell more ads or, in Amazon's case, more products.
It's clear that all three companies are looking to connected home devices to help them increase their interactions with users -- and if they do that successfully, it'll lead to more sales across their businesses.


CE PRO   --- Historic Period of Growth for Smart Homes

New Technology Led by Displays

“I have been in CE for 30 years and there is nothing more exciting than the smart home. There has never been a category that I was so skeptical about that I am now so bullish about,” commented Baker.  “Smart home is great but when all these other products are connected, it is even more exciting.”


While some integrators have soured on selling displays due to the lack of margin, Baker noted that display technology will continue to evolve and presents a strong opportunity for integrators.“The TV is not going to sit in the family room and not be connected to a bunch of other devices. It is just not going to happen,” he said, citing health and wellness is a great example of connectivity to the displays.

He specifically believes Amazon will make a big push into display connectivity because it does not have a cell phone play.

Baker believes the changing form factors of TVs – rollables, transparent and high design – will be a big new trend led by MicroLED, OLED and 5G TVs that direct stream signals (he dubs that category as Devices as a Services (DaaS))

*********************

The growth is primarily going to be driven by online spending. He noted that 6 percent of consumers are spending 75 percent of their disposable income online, but  40 percent of consumers still spend less than 10 percent of their disposable income online

“Online has not peaked at all. There are huge dollars coming,” he noted. “We are headed into a historic period of growth. We are at cusp on awesome new products.”

Saturday, October 27, 2018

CC thoughts

I've received several requests for my thoughts about the CC....

The big picture answer is that I have little doubt about how big Microvision is going to be.
As I've made clear before, it's a bleeding-edge company transitioning to a leading edge company, and in those situations timing is always an issue... delays are always possible.

One of the key things in the conference call -- that some will interpret as a negative -- is that the NRE is not necessary. That means the company has done a good job anticipating the needs of OEMS... that's huge to the positive in my view -- and says that one significant situation that COULD cause a delay won't. (They have a destination for engines... if they needed to be adjusted, then they're re-engineer, test again... and possibly find the new thing comes up short... this hurdle has been bypassed.)

They also made clear that products will appear next year.
  • They announced a 24 million "black box" contract. That will be revealed sometime between now and mid next year. (it's still a secret)
  • They announced a display only contract.
  • They have not yet announced whatever is going to happen with the interactive display contract(s?)

So, I expect an interactive display contract announcement very soon
We were also told that once the "black box" project development is complete, that Microvision can sell the results to whomever they want. (As this is the case, it is almost certainly NOT a hardware company: Software, search, social media) prime suspects are Microsoft, Google, Amazon or Facebook.

And... once the tech is in the hands of more than one player, the desire for secrecy will be turned on it's head. When you're the only one, you want to be quiet. When you're in a field of similar players, you want to be as loud as possible..... so I expect a lot of noise about MVIS very soon.

Whether or not dilution is required or a contract or other income shows up before long remains to be seen... but I think the next announcements will come fairly rapidly.

Friday, October 26, 2018

Spatial -- Media Attention -- FDA Approval

Augmented reality is going to do great things.

So far, MVIS has the best near eye display I've seen. (I may have a chance to try Magic Leap today, it's the only one I haven't tried yet.) Nothing out there is as good as what I tried with Microvision.

The business & medical & technical applications for it are going to be fantastic.


And, as you can see by where reports are coming from, they're on the edge of being on mainstream media.
FDA approval for medical applications is pretty nice as well.

The market in general is in turmoil (I expect that turmoil to last until November 6) MVIS is a small boat in a large turbulent ocean, and we'll feel the effects of that.

After listening to the CC today, I expect that we will soon be hearing a number of announcements.

MSPoweruser

Variety

Maxim



Associated Press Novarad


SALT LAKE CITY--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct 24, 2018--The OpenSight® Augmented Reality System is the first AR medical solution for Microsoft HoloLens cleared by the FDA receiving 510(k) clearance for use in pre-operative surgical planning. Building upon decades of Novarad’s experience in image processing, OpenSight renders 2D, 3D and 4D images of patients interactively, while accurately overlaying them directly onto the patient’s body. The solution, along with patented virtual tool technology and an integrated targeting system, allows doctors to see the patient and into the patient simultaneously to more accurately plan surgery.

Thursday, October 25, 2018

Third Quarter

NO NRE REQUIRED -- BECAUSE WHAT WE HAD READY WAS Closely aligned to what OEMS were already looking for.

Mike Latimore: Three product families? From three separate companies?

Interactive display / april 2017 contract / & display only.

Product LAUNCH in 2nd Half 2019.


It will be ready for customers, just like we said.... exactly. 



*************************

MicroVision Announces Third Quarter 2018 Results



REDMOND, Wash., Oct. 25, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- MicroVision, Inc. (NASDAQ:MVIS), a leader in innovative ultra-miniature projection display and sensing technology, today announced results for the quarter ended September 30, 2018.


Revenue for the third quarter of 2018 was $11.6 million, compared to $5.4 million for the third quarter of 2017. MicroVision's net profit for the third quarter of 2018 was $0.3 million, or $0.00 per share, compared to a net loss of $5.8 million, or $0.08 per share for the third quarter of 2017.

“I am pleased with the progress we made in Q3 while targeting Tier 1 technology leaders who have the capabilities to bring our innovative solutions to market. During the quarter, we completed the technology transfer to our display-only licencee that we announced in May and continue to make significant progress on our product development,” said Perry Mulligan, MicroVision’s Chief Executive Officer. “Based on the team’s execution, I believe we are positioned to potentially support the launch of three product families during the second half of 2019, which could position us to achieve profitability in late 2019. To support these product launches, we are now working with our module manufacturing partner to be ready for our 2019 sales opportunities and to minimize the associated working capital requirements,” Perry added.

The company has implemented Revenue Standard ASC 606 for the year beginning January 1, 2018. The Company transitioned to the new standard using the full retrospective approach, and per the standard, historical periods have been adjusted as if the new standard was in place for historical periods.

Financial Results Conference Call

The company will host a conference call today to discuss its third quarter 2018 results and current business operations at 5:00 p.m. ET/2:00 p.m. PT. Interested parties can listen to the company's conference call by accessing the MicroVision website’s Investor Events Calendar page or dialing 1-877-883-0383 (for U.S. participants) or 1-412-902-6506 (for participants outside the U.S.) ten minutes prior to the start of the call using pass code number 4343681. A replay webcast of the call will also be available from the MicroVision website’s Investor Events Calendar page.

Several AR Links

Interesting use of language in here.

When the glasses you "dream about" are a ways away, doesn't mean version one isn't imminent.. 


Facebook Confirms AR Glasses

TechCrunch Sessions... AR



Oculus big plans to expand in greater Seattle Area

Tuesday, October 23, 2018

Focals by North -- Thalmic Labs,

Some Amazon participation... 

And a quick search reveals Microvision & Thalmic Labs intersections in patents.
CNBC -- 


Sunday, October 21, 2018

Automaker "frenemies" - CNBC

When you have a KEY bit of technical know-how in a space where bitter rivals are cooperating so they can get the technical job done... that's a good place to be.

A very small, very high resolution LiDAR for self-driving cars or ADAS.... that's a nice thing to have in your portfolio.

This article mentions nearly every automaker in the world.



From Ford to Volkswagen, rivals become frenemies to share the cost and risk of building self-driving cars -- CNBC


The sheer cost and technological burden of developing self-driving cars, electric vehicles and other advancements has companies that have historically been fierce competitors becoming, at the very least, frenemies. They're forming new alliances, joint ventures and agreements to help develop and build new technologies that may take years to get to market and even longer before turning a profit. While some Odd Couple alliances are more successful than others, all share a common cause.

***

Volkswagen announced almost a year ago that it plans to spend $40 billion to develop autonomous and electrified vehicles through 2022. It is expected to invest billions more by 2025 when it hopes to have 50 all-electric vehicles filling out the product lineup of brands ranging from mainstream Seat, Skoda and VW to exclusive marques Audi, Bentley and Lamborghini. And the German automaker isn't alone.

Monday, October 15, 2018

Google Home and Fuchsia...

See the recent video about Apple... how to get developers to develop for something they don't know exists yet...prediction, it's been going on with Google already too.... ( Apple Video Post )


Looking for it in the links below, I'm not a code wizard, but I see some interesting things in there.. consulting some code guys to see if my suspicions are plausible.



Dice.com

Within the Fuchsia source code is mention of an Amlogic chipset, which was always curious because Android typically uses Qualcomm Snapdragon processors. Speaking with Ars Technica, Google’s Vice President of Product Management, Diya Jolly, confirmed the Home Hub is running an Amlogic chip. (Ars also covered some of the Hub’s grittier hardware details, such as the 1GB RAM and smaller-than-expected 7-inch display. There are no available specs for the screen, but it’s not being billed as one you’d want to watch a movie on, so we’d have to assume it’s low resolution; tech site What Hi-Fi? says the screen checks in at 1024×600.)

From there, 9to5Google poked through the Fuchsia code and found mention of two devices: “Astro” and “Estelle.” Although earlier rumors suggested that “Astro” had an Amlogic chipset and 7-inch screen, sources speaking to 9to5Google said that “Estelle” is in fact the Google Home Hub. In other words, “Astro” was likely a design spec for “Estelle,” which is the actual reference device.

But the Google Home Hub, née “Estelle,” is not running Fuchsia. Yet. Jolly told Ars Technica the Home Hub runs on the Google Cast platform, which is typically utilized for displaying mobile content on your TV via Chromecast or streaming audio to a proper home stereo.

Developers aren’t welcome to the Home Hub yet. When asked why the Google Home Hub runs Cast rather than Android, Jolly said: “There’s no particular reason. We just felt we could bring the experience to bear with Cast, and the experiences are the same. We would have easily given the third-parties Cast if they wanted it, but I think most developers are comfortable using Android Things.”

In any case, it seems Fuchsia isn’t quite ready for prime time. As 9to5Google notes, Google has curated a list of pull requests into a branch dubbed milestone-1011, which tells us it’s trying in earnest to get a barebones version of Fuchsia ready soon. Ars Technica speculates that Google used Cast in lieu of Android Things because the Google Home Hub has weaker hardware than most Android Things devices.

This also means the Home Hub is not truly native, underscored by the fact that Home Hubs at Google’s event were in ‘demo mode.’ Nobody was given a glimpse at how we’d interact with the hardware, beyond voice controls asking for recipes or the weather.

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Interesting Smoking gun...

I suspect this was something that wasn't intended to be released like this.

There's some really interesting stuff on this, and it is another smoking gun, because it's Sharp, it shows known Microvision Products.


There are also a couple of components that look like they fit the Hololens picture. (At risk of having it wrong, I'm still posting it that way because it's a busy day.)

Thanks Geo & Joe

ZD Net -- Hololens Sensor

Source SocleTech  (Part of Foxconn )







Reagan Holograms at Reagan Library

Maybe I need to visit again.

Soon, you'll be able to get holograms anywhere. 




Every four years, Republican presidential hopefuls invoke the spirit of President Ronald Reagan. Now at his library in Simi Valley, Calif., that spirit has become a virtual reality.
On Thursday, the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library will reveal three holograms of the 40th president to the public, bringing him to life in a way never before seen.
“To reach back in time and to create, scientifically, a hologram of someone that's passed like President Reagan, you have to do a phenomenal number of things technologically to bring him to life,” said John Heubusch, the library’s executive director. “And we’ve achieved it.”
In three different settings— at his California ranch, in the Oval Office and on his 1984 whistle-stop campaign tour— visitors will hear the late president in his own voice as he appears before them in a small theater. The holograms will play at the beginning of the library tour.
Bringing the president to life took a year and a half of trial-and-error.
“We searched for many months to try to find an actor that was close enough that, with some makeup, they’d look like President Reagan,” Heubusch told Fox News. “But we couldn’t find anyone and we searched the world over.”
Instead, the library found an actor who matched Reagan’s build and could replicate his mannerisms. Using computer-generated imagery, they married Reagan’s head with the actor’s body, creating a seamless, holographic image of President Reagan.
Back in 2012, the world was wowed when rapper Tupac Shakur was brought to life via a hologram on stage at the Coachella music festival. While it was impressive, the Reagan hologram creators say it’s much more difficult to present a hologram in a museum setting.
“This was our most challenging hologram ever,” said David Nussbaum of Hologram USA, emphasizing that many holograms are viewed from hundreds of feet away. “It had to be perfect. No pixelation. No rough around the edges. And it had to look exactly like President Reagan.”
How close is this representation of Reagan? “I’d say 99.9 percent,” said Heubusch. “I think he would find it just incredible that we could bring him back to life in this way.”

Monday, October 8, 2018

Microsoft Project xCloud

I believe this to be another smoking gun.... 


C|Net


Microsoft revealed Monday that it's testing an Xbox game streaming service, currently called Project xCloud.

The company demonstrated its work on the service so far in a video showing Forza and Halo, games designed to be run on an Xbox One console, being played on Android phones and tablets. The games work both with an Xbox wireless controller paired over Bluetooth and using a touchscreen overlay when there's no controller present.

"Project xCloud's state-of-the-art global game-streaming technology will offer you the freedom to play on the device you want without being locked to a particular device," wrote Kareem Choudhry, Microsoft's corporate vice president for cloud gaming, in a blog post.

**************************
This line is key... In order to play games on a phone sized screen this would REQUIRE re-working by game developers... there is simply no possible way that many of the required details found on small screens could be usable by people without reworking by developers. But no additional work required by developers screams that there will be a "normal" sized gaming screen for X-Box games... which is definitely much larger than a phone screen.

"Our vision is for gamers to have access to the same content via game streaming that they do on other platforms, without any additional work required by the game developer," the spokesperson said.

Interesting power plays in Smart Home Products

As things heat up in the space there will be some jockeying around to see which interface becomes the standard.

Eventually, if it plays out like other fields, there will become a dominant standard and then an "only standard." (Like HD DVD vs. blu ray, or Betamax vs VHS)

Something is likely to win, and some force like this from retailers may hasten the process.


StaceyOnIOT // @Gigastacey

Walmart is asking companies that want to sell smart home products to make sure those products work with Google Home. The retailer has instructed potential suppliers to ensure that their products support Google Home, and if they also support Amazon Alexa, that they make such certification visible on the side or back of their packaging.
While several people responsible for selling smart home products confirmed they had received those instructions from Walmart, two others also said that Walmart suggested that it would prefer if providers didn’t host their services on Amazon Web Services, and that the ideal smart home products shouldn’t require a hub. None of the half-dozen companies I spoke to about this topic would agree to go on the record.
From a consumer point of view, Walmart’s push toward Google Home doesn’t bother me. Amazon’s Alexa is currently the team to beat when it comes to building a better smart home, and I’d like to see companies respond to that challenge. Plus, it doesn’t sound like Walmart is penalizing companies that work with Amazon, which would be a step too far.

Friday, October 5, 2018

Edge computing, Sensors AI

So, we've heard about AI and edge computing.

Some really cool stuff can happen when devices "talk" to each other directly.

...suddenly the importance of AI and computing at the source becomes obvious.

AndroidHeadlines



Tuesday, October 2, 2018

Traffic, Catalysts & Greed & Float

Traffic
Traffic to this blog relative to news and price action has a positive correlation. Often there will be increases in traffic prior to news, sometimes spikes. There have been some significant spikes lately and a steady increase in traffic without any promotion on my part. This is coming from search. 

There is also a significant amount of traffic building from a relatively small place that I think has a significant role in Microvision's supply chain. (this trend has been going on for a long time.)

Catalysts.
For a variety of reasons I believe we're very close to one or more significant market catalysts. By that I simply mean that more people will learn about MicroVision and see its market applications.

I think one of the key place to look is at the developers.

I'm pretty sure they are now seeing references in the code to functionality that's interesting to play with and develop for, that isn't immediately understandable to them. The Apple video of a few posts ago is something to pay attention to.


I have gone to meet with a bunch of voice interactive programmers... you learn some cool things at meetings like that. The right questions get interesting reactions.

I believe the first announcement will result in a cascade of announcements. It pays to be stealthy when you're the only one... as soon as you're not the only one, you don't ever want to shut up about whatever you have.



Greed

Greed is a significant factor in the market.

Shake Shack was once priced at the equivalent of about 50 million per restaurant.

GoPro was once valued at around $10 billion(now at about $1 billion)

(There are more, but at the moment I'm too lazy to dig up the references.)

These are companies that do something cool, but have non-existent moats, and became wildly over valued just based on raging optimism.

Microvision has a significant moat, and the market potential for the LEAST impressive of its businesses is gigantic. (Display only Pico Projection)

See the price target calculator

I left spaces blank on purpose. Replace the stars with your numbers. 


The most common answer I get after showing someone the PicoPro projector, and then asking the question "so what percent of phones do you think will eventually have a projector like this?" The most common answer is 100% or even more than one per phone. (check out old concept video) So, I regard 10% as conservative.


My conservative estimate is 10% of smartphones, $7 per each projector and a PE ratio of 60.

That estimation is absent greed....

Shake Shack, for example once had a PE ratio of over 2000(1225 at the time of the reference above). 


Investors saw potential and paid for it.

If anything, Microvision's potential is under estimated. (Price target calculator, for example, is only considering display only so far.) We can add Near Eye Display, Security, automotive LiDAR, consumer LiDAR, interactive display to Microvision's businesses, and people are throwing money at those markets like crazy. Microvision has been stealthy.

So, as an exercise, go back to the price target calculator, and get just a little optimistic. Go to half of phones & half of the ridiculous number Shake Shack got, and click calculate again. 


Insane? (It's simple multiplication and you can adjust any variable you want.)

Now add the other businesses into the mix....


 This is why I sleep easy at night holding a lot of this $1.25 stock.

Float
The other factor that needs to be considered with this stock is it's relatively small float. 

To estimate the impact of this you can go visit "The Anatomy of a Short Squeeze" post done some time ago.

To do a quick analysis of what this might mean is to think of a single company that may use Microvision's Tech: To draw out of a hat, let's say they put something in an Amazon product.

Here's how that story may play out. Amazon investor sees cool new interactive projector in an Amazon Echo. He thinks, "wow, that has some potential," does a little research and sees the other verticals, and decides to invest some money in this company he just heard about. So, to be conservative, he sells a share or two of his Amazon stock to buy Microvision stock.

To be conservative, let's say that 0.5% of the Amazon shares are sold to make that trade. (one half of one percent.) The market cap of Amazon today (10/2/18) is $980,000,000,000. (divide that by 100 and divide the result by 2) 


The result is a LOT of money that's going to be chasing Microvision's stock. The impact of this could be VERY significant. (4.9 Billion)

Combine that with a company that has a significant number of investors who have been holding it for a long time, because they have done these kinds of calculations... and things could get very interesting.

The Bleeding Edge...

Microvision is making a transition from being on the bleeding edge of technology, to being solidly leading edge.... In my opinion things are about to get really fun.