Not even the most awesome products hit the ground in a frenzy. A recent example is Instantpot : Founded in 2009, started moving in 2014, a frenzy in 2017. (Overnight success! says the media.) We're sitting on two products that appear to be getting this kind of growth and adoption. LiDAR and Near Eye Display. LiDAR will be everywhere. So will Near Eye Display.
Good
charts of adoption are difficult to find. You eventually end up with some kind of distorting compression that changes it in a way that the visual representation is distorted. ( partly because, as you'll
see, they're difficult to fit on a screen and be readable at both ends.) This page from PetaPixel. It has a couple of very interesting charts of adoption.
This
is of CAMERA Sales.... Sucks to be in cameras? unless you think you
just went back to sort of normal from a decade of amazing.
If
we add cameras that are included on cellphones, we get a bit of a
different picture. The GOLD area is cameras on phones..... except they
fade out at the top of the graph.
Well, happily, they put something on there so we could see the top
of the graph --- but the screen graphics kind of break down. Well,
there you are with cellphones included.
That's how a market can grow.
LiDAR is for more than cars, and Near Eye displays are probably going to replace your cellphone screen in a few years.
MicroVision Announces Addition of Judy Curran to its Board of Directors
REDMOND, Wash., Dec. 01, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- MicroVision, Inc.
(Nasdaq: MVIS), an innovative leader in solid state lidar sensor and
ultra-miniature laser display technology based on its proprietary laser
beam scanning technology, today announced Judy Curran was appointed to its board of directors.
Curran is an accomplished senior automotive executive with over 30
years of experience in vehicle program, engineering and technology
leadership. Curran has a strong record of leading innovation at Ford
Motor Company where she served in a number of executive positions
including Director of Technology Strategy, where she developed the
cross-vehicle global strategy for key new technologies including
assisted driving, infotainment, new electrical architectures, and
connectivity. Previous executive roles at Ford included Vehicle Line Director, Vehicle Evaluation and Validation Director and VP Engineering for Automotive Components Holding LLC.
Curran currently works at Ansys as its Head of Global Automotive
Strategy. Ansys is a simulation software company used to simulate
multi-physic systems including ADAS systems.
In addition to her executive experience, Curran has served on several
boards including the Automotive Component Holdings Operating Board, a
Ford Subsidiary; Board of Directors Executive Committee, Inforum
Automotive NEXT; Board of Advisors, College of Engineering, Lawrence Technological University; German American Chamber of Commerce Board - Detroit Office and Board of Directors for SAE Foundation, SAE WCX, and SAE GLC Committees. Curran earned her Bachelor of Science in Electrical Engineering and Computer Software at Lawrence Technological University and her Master of Science in Electrical Engineering at the University of Michigan.
“Judy has an extensive background in executive and strategic
leadership in the automotive industry during a distinguished career at Ford. We are fortunate to have her join our board,” said Brian Turner,
Chairman and Lead Independent Director at MicroVision. “I believe
automotive lidar sensor technology represents a significant opportunity
and potential value to our shareholders. Judy brings a deep
understanding of the current automotive marketplace including new
technology, business strategy, operations and management. Her role at
Ford Motor Company leading assisted driving strategy and other
technology initiatives strengthens our board as we consider various
opportunities. She will be a valuable addition to the MicroVision board
of directors.”
“I am very excited to join the MicroVision board and I look forward
to working with Brian, my fellow directors and management as the Company
continues to explore strategic options with Craig-Hallum Capital Group, LLC,
its financial advisor,” said Curran. “I am eager to bring my experience
and energy to the board and help guide the Company in implementing a
successful strategy.”
About MicroVision
MicroVision is the creator of PicoP® scanning technology, an
ultra-miniature sensing and projection solution based on the laser beam
scanning methodology pioneered by the Company. MicroVision’s platform
approach for this sensing and display solution means that its technology
can be adapted to a wide array of applications and form factors. We
combine our hardware, software, and algorithms to unlock value for our
customers by providing them a differentiated advanced solution for a
rapidly evolving, always-on world.
MicroVision has a substantial portfolio of patents relating to laser
beam scanning projection and sensing. MicroVision’s industry leading
technology is a result of its extensive research and development. The
Company is based in Redmond, Washington.
Thanks Snowboard for the assist! As always, I show my work... (and I believe the exercise involved in finding a method is more important than the result.) This is all my own work, this is an exercise, Im not giving any investing advice, do you own homework, (etc.)
Coming up with a concrete number here is very difficult. There is little if any price/value history on LiDAR, and much of what is there is from experimental usage.
This is probably the most valuable part of the company -- The CEO is there because of LiDAR. Coming up with any numbers here is difficult. Lots of guesswork (I'm admitting it, the best we can get is a SWAG.) A few assorted facts:
All LiDAR will be using class 1 lasers. (Even though you can't see
infrared laser light, stronger than class one could still damage eyes,
and there is no blink reflex for infrared light.)
MicroVision's target is 20,000,000 points per second, that's a lot of points. You can count hairs on people with that.
The significant limiting factor on range is the Speed of light. (see chart below)
A few main areas of likely use: (There are more, like SLAM, scanning and 3D printing... )
Gesture Control
Security
Adas
Gesture control: This could be huge.... ...but after wrestling with this off and on for days, I really can't come up with a defensible guess on it.
The potential is enormous though. You could, for example build a new home that has no wall switches at all, and have anything you want controlled by gesture. (Turn on the lights, raise or lower the blinds, adjust the temperature, etc.) With one sensor and one wire instead of multiple switches and needing to get up to do it.
I could come up with something, but the SWAG would emphasize the wild-ass part of it. After already exerting considerable effort in this direction, I've determined that further effort will not result in a good and measurable estimate of a future reality.
No Guess
Security
Subscriptions + Hardware.
I've seen MVIS's LiDAR in action at a shareholder meeting. It can recognize people. This has been described on MicroVision's conference calls, and has been described with significant additional safety and convenience features.
This could identify individual people
Can distinguish between pets and people (or YOUR pet and the neighbors pet)
Can distinguish between normal behaviors and strange things that could be of concern
Could save face-scans of intruders and allow intruders to be identified later
I'm a definitive yes on this. I'll assume that 25% would like and pay for the capabilities, and they could perhaps add 25% of subscriptions. (Identifying people in the home would be huge, along with other benefits.) At an approximate $75/month additional to another subscription with 1/3 of that credited directly to the ability of the MicroVision tech. (Still a SWAG, remember.)
If yes, 25 * 5,000,000 = 125Million per month. = 1.5 Billion per year. Over a 5 year window you could run that out to 7.5 Billion ($53/share) Like Beats, selling the subscription is the money center.
ADAS
What is the value of preventing accidents? It's huge in the amount saved in damage and life.
If you're using a self-driving car and it crashes, who's fault will that be? -- the company that programmed it and designed the system. (They'll obviously put a self-testing system in place -- and it won't move unless their system is working... or you'll have to disconnect it and take responsibility yourself.)
Car insurance premiums could drop by as much as $25 billion, or 12.5% of
the total market, by 2035 thanks to the rollout of autonomous vehicles,
consulting firm Accenture noted in its report.
Accenture calls it an $81 Billion opportunity. (If you give MVIS a 5% share of that number is $4 Billion or $28/share)
Government requirement. (Something small, cheap easy to install, high resolution is a GOOD thing to have in this market.)
What is the value of a self driving vehicle.
What is the value of a vehicle that is mostly ding-and dent proof?
American Family Insurance: Discounts for:
Forward Collision Warning
This car safety feature tracks a vehicle’s speed and compares it to
the vehicle ahead. If the distance is closing too quickly, the system
warns the driver to slow down through a visual alert, audible warning,
or combination of the two. This warning gives drivers time to brake and
avoid a collision.
Automatic Emergency Braking
If the driver doesn’t respond to the forward collision warning, some
vehicles also have automatic emergency braking. This car safety feature
automatically applies the brakes to slow or even stop the vehicle.
Depending on your speed, automatic emergency braking can reduce the
severity of a crash or even prevent it completely.
The lane departure warning system uses cameras to see road markings.
If a driver drifts out of the lane without signaling, then this feature
issues an audible or visual warning so the driver can steer the car back
into its lane. Some systems also vibrate the driver’s seat or steering
wheel to get the driver’s attention. Working along with lane departure
warning on some cars is lane keep assist. This will gently nudge the
steering wheel in the correct direction to help the driver stay in his
lane.
Blind Spot Detection and Rear Cross Traffic Alert
When there’s a vehicle in the blind spot, this car safety feature
alerts the driver with an audible or visual warning. Some systems issue a
warning only if a car is in your blind spot when you use your turn
signal while other systems activate a visual alert any time a car is in
the blind spot, even if you’re not signaling to turn. Rear cross traffic
alert is another system to help you see what you might miss. When the
car is in reverse, it monitors traffic about to drive behind the vehicle
and warns the driver of any oncoming cars.
SLAM Simultaneous Localization and Mapping
When robot's start moving among us, this will be very important.
This could have enormous impact in tool and die, manufacturing, etc, but it's very difficult to put a number to it. (Just making sure your tool doesn't crash into something it shouldn't this could be big.
Could heavy equipment scan the area for fragile items and LiDAR in concert with onboard software ensure that this equipment doesn't move anything it shouldn't? Probably yes, probably would save a lot. (Could a crane operator, for example move loads MUCH faster with much more confidence?)
No history --- no guess... but someone out there has a value for this..
Scanning / 3D printing
No guess.... this is another one of those items that could be a very big market, or very small... no way to know yet.
No guess. (There is value for this too.)
The RANGE AND RESOLUTION CHART
Included because it's interesting -- and because it provides understandings of important limitations.
The laser in a lidar must be class 1 (brighter could still damage eyes, even though the light can't be seen)
Range and resolution are limited by the speed of light.
I produced the spreadsheet below after listening to a bunch of engineers at a STM conference argue about LiDAR range. They spent some time arguing that the speed of light was a limiting factor. Since it's the fastest thing, I did this to understand that argument.
For each pixel of resolution, the light must leave the device, bounce off the object at the end, and return to the source.
Constants
All of this is a HARD LIMIT, not of the hardware, but a hard limit based on the speed of light.
Constant
Value
Scale
Name
Light Second
299,792,458
meters/sec
LightSec
720P
921,600
Pixels
LowHD
Lightsec div PS
1080P
2,073,600
Pixels
HD
Points / Second
Range in METERS
Refresh
60
Hertz
Refresh
HD X Hertz
124,416,000
2.41
Adjusting the Refresh rate (scans per second) changes the effective range (Using all the pixels of that standard resolution.) For 60 Hertz, we could use a number less than 60hz to account for error-rates, etc.
Low HD X Hertz
55,296,000
5.42
for points per second it only requires the number of points and the speed of light to find the distance.
Detroit (AFP) - Regulators will "carefully and responsibly" review General Motors' request to test an autonomous car without a steering wheel, US Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao said Sunday.
"It is now coming to the stage with the rapid advancement of self-driving technology that this request is now a reality," Chao said on the sidelines of the Detroit Auto Show.
"So we will view the petition carefully and responsibly."
GM on Friday unveiled the Cruise AV, an autonomous vehicle with no steering wheel or pedals, announcing it had asked the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to exempt it from a number of federal standards that cannot be met with a driverless car.
GM executives have said they planned to introduce a large-scale fleet of self-driving taxis by 2019, a timeframe some analysts consider ambitious.
GM released images of the Cruise AV and video of the interior with a strikingly spacious windshield devoid of a steering wheel.
"It's quite a striking image when people see it for the first time," GM president Dan Ammann told AFP on the sidelines of a GM event Saturday.
"I think people will want to engage with the technology and understand it and experience it," Ammann said.
"But I think what's really most powerful about what the technology can offer is an increase in safety on the road. And once people understand that and see and experience it, we think the adoption will be there."
"Its hard to generalize" about whether the public is ready for autonomous cars, Ammann said. "Some people are more than ready. And other people will be watching and seeing how it evolves."
"Even with 80,000 pounds it'll get to 60 mph in 20 seconds," Musk said, hopping out of a truck. "What about up a hill?"
More significantly for trucking companies, Musk said that a standard diesel truck would be 20% more expensive to operate than a Tesla truck: $1.26 per mile compared to $1.51 per mile.
Musk said that if Tesla Semis were to drive in a convoy, in which trucks can draft off each other while letting computers and sensors keep them just feet apart at highway speeds, it could compete on cost with trains. "This beats rail," said Musk, throwing up an 85 cents per mile cost.
The proliferation of ADAS has spawned headlines and interest in a variety of sensor technologies that enable vehicles to observe and understand their surroundings, and now similar opportunity is emerging inside the car for new sensors that can observe and understand the driver and passengers as well as provide intuitive control interfaces.
MicroVision’s Director of Product Engineering, Jari Honkanen, recently gave a presentation at FUTURECAR 2017 detailing how our Laser Beam Scanning technology for MEMS-based LiDAR solutions provides a unique approach that enables new 3D sensor capabilities in areas such as dynamic and variable resolution, acquisition speed, and field of view. These small and cost-effective MEMS-based LIDAR sensors can be applied to new innovative interior and exterior automotive applications benefiting from high-fidelity 3D depth sensing from short to medium distances.
If you can find a good up and coming technology to invest in, you can end up holding stock in a company that will pay you enormous returns. Think Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia and Google --companies that went from the bleeding edge of technology to the leading edge.
Notable investor Ronald Wayne, is an excellent example of a "smart investor" who missed the gains possible in holding a "bleeding edge company." In 1976 he was one of the first investors in Apple computer company. He was a 10% stakeholder and sold his stake for $800. He did double his money in 12 days, but had he held onto his investment it would be worth 90 Billion today. Ronald Wayne
Now, not all bleeding edge companies make it to the leading edge. However, if you can find a company that is transitioning from the bleeding edge to the leading edge, you can avoid a lot of the risk the early investors took, and get most of the gains. The sweet spot to find one of these companies is when it's making the transition. Of course to find the right company now, you'd look to something that was going to be a key component of an up and coming new technology.
Mobile technologyis still in its infancy -- find the next must-have feature, and you're golden.
Personal assistants, like the Amazon Echo or the Google Home are gaining popularity, and will likely become more and more common, and more widely available everywhere -- especially if video features can be conveniently added to them.
The Internet of Things is talked about everywhere, more and more powerful computers are being put in everyday items. If you're old enough to remember the 1990's a powerful personal computer of the 1990's was required to play the game "DOOM" -- but that computing horsepower is now available in a thermostat. [Doom on a Thermostat] The thing about that computing horsepower is that people need a good way to interact with it, that will be a key component.
Augmented Reality, the ability to enhance the world you see with computer generated information, is so new most people have seen little of it except perhaps an experience with Pokemon Go. They're getting great results with this technology in industry, greatly increasing productivity-- and it's a wild fantasy of gamers. It will be bigger than Virtual Reality -- it brings people together, or it can. Virtual reality isolates them.
Self Driving Cars and Automation: I know self-driving cars are controversial -- they're not going to happen all at once though. They're going to happen a little at a time. More and more sensors will appear, the ability to automate some functions of the car, and the ability of the car to process the sensors' information and intervene when necessary is going to increase. No one is complaining about cars automatically NOT hitting pedestrians, or parking themselves, or alerting us when there's another car in our blind spot. This happens through primarily sensors that can detect and identify other objects.
If you want to do a good job investing in future technology, you could find a good company in each space -- but finding a good company that is publicly traded in each specific space could be tedious. You could invest in ST Microelectronics, absolutely nothing wrong with them, or Intel, or Google. However I think there's a way to invest in a company that has much greater growth potential, and it's poised to provide key components in ALL of those areas.
I'll keep this as brief and complete as possible, you can explore the rest of the blog.... Pico Projection -- Mobile Phone Technology Why? Because of the picture below. Want to share your pictures? Would you rather share it with the picture on the phone below (at the bottom, slightly to the right of the center of the picture is my phone.) It's showing the same image as the PicoP powered projected large image, everyone can see it at once. (yes the crab were delicious.)
When I ask people "so, of the smart phones made in the world, how many of them do you think will eventually get a projector like this?" The most common answer is "all of them." I have a link to a price calculator below, and you can see the difference between 10% and "all of them." Would you like a six foot screen in your Phone? This phone is now available in China, and Romania, and soon will be in Brazil, and India. (45%+ of the worldwide smartphone market.)
Personal Assistants & Internet of things: Put a sensor in that projector and turn it into a touch screen. This projector product should be available for purchase in the second half of 2018. It can be included in personal assistants, appliances, and anywhere else a touch screen would be desirable.
Below is another prototype that uses MicroVision's technology. How would you like it if your Amazon Echo or your Google Home speaker could do this?
Augmented Reality: This is an area that is just getting started. Most people are unaware this is possible, but it's probably going to be huge.
Pokemon' Go was an early augmented reality game, and Microsoft is having a lot of early success with its Hololens
MicroVision is working on Augmented Reality, displays; I do not know with who, and haven't seen a recent example. I have seen an old augmented reality display from MicroVision however, and it was much more impressive to me than other displays that were being shown at the time.
In 2015 I attended the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. I tried every "augmented reality" item I could find, and none of them got even close to the contrast, and field of view that MicroVision's NOMAD system. (listen to what they say about the NOMAD display's business model below. That business model is becoming a reality. [Augmented Reality Increasing Productivity]
At that time I was told that what they have now is much better. I wish I could say I have seen it in person, but I haven't.
Are lasers (MicroVision's realm) going to be used? Nvidia thinks so, and they think that EVERYONE will be using augmented reality. (NVidia at SIGGRAF 2017) All good, but for our purposes, be sure to observe from 4:25-5:45! Below is a video of how Microsoft Imagines Augmented Reality.
And Augmented Reality Games, below. I know these samples are from Microsoft, but that doesn't mean that they will be the only player, but for displays, I believe MicroVision will be key.
Scanning LiDAR A huge problem with most automated things that move is that you don't want them to crash into things. If it's a moving arm, a robot, a truck, car, forklift, or gigantic digging machine. Scanning LiDAR is where it's at for those sensors. MicroVision's product is much smaller than competition, (and shrunk again by a factor of eight!) and they are in the mid-range sweet-spot of importance. Knowing where things are at a distance and close up is good, but most of the important decisions are made in the mid range. From Semiengineering.com "Kevin Watson, senior director of product engineering at Redmond, Wash.-based MicroVision, a publicly held company, disagrees. “I don’t think that’s going to go anywhere,” he said of flash LiDAR. “For many years, the Holy Grail of LiDAR sensors we thought to be a MEMS mirror-based laser scanner, because they’re super-small, relatively inexpensive to manufacture in great quantity, and very reliable. They’re small enough to hide several around an automobile.”
Watson calls LiDAR “the most important sensor” in automotive electronics. “Vision systems are great, but they’re a totally passive system. LiDAR is active.”
Mr Watson left Velodyne to work on the Holy Grail of LiDAR sensors at MicroVision.
It can also do 3D mapping for things like autonomous cars, robots, making movies, or creating content for Augmented reality. (And I'm sure more.
SONY Sony has several products with MicroVision's PicoP inside, The relationship with Sony seems to have been problematic, but Sony is still in a position to produce products with MicroVision's technology inside. Products included: celluon PicoPro, and the Sony MPCL1 Laser Pico Projector, A cellphone with an embedded laser projector the Qualper phone has been shown but apparently not released: Qualper Phone.
So how good is MicroVision's Intellectual Property?[ PatentVue ]
"Microvision Inc. made our list as the largest US patent holder in this space, owning 289 US patents primarily related to hardware components for augmented reality systems, with a focus on miniaturized MEMS and PICO level systems. Another smaller company is this space with significant patent protection is Kopin Corporation, with 206 relevant patents."
Microvision has been a company for the last 20 years that has been on the "bleeding edge" of technology. They have had to wait for some technologies (lasers) to catch up with them, and even had the lasers existed to do what they wanted to do ten years ago, the content landscape wasn't quite ready.
Laser technology improvements have reached a point where direct laser diodes are readily available an inexpensive enough for mass adoption. They even get REALLY small. (yes, below that's a three-color laser module next to the dime.)
Where could this go? Well, if I'm conservative and say the company profits $5 per projector unit, and it goes into 10% of the world's smartphones and everything else fails? Then this thing will be trading about 200 times what it is now. If it does better? Sky is the limit. Check the price target calculator below, and put in your own numbers.
The sweet spot is to catch a company when it transitions from the bleeding edge of technology to the leading edge -- and I am long this company. I have endured the bleeding edge pain -- but things are going to get interesting as products are going into production now.
There's more, check out these past posts, and dig around a lot. There's way more out there than is on this blog.
