Market Treatment of High Growth

What CAN happen in a market.

This isn't a prediction. It's all my opinion, you decide whether to take it or leave it.

It is perhaps a study of why it may be foolish to make predictions. As we get closer to product releases, considering what might happen with MicroVision shares, the "how high could they go?" question gets more and more difficult to answer. I'm sure the shares will go higher. 

I'm sure the product will get vast public appeal. (EVERYONE I've showed the PicoAir to has wanted it. Not most of the people - EVERYONE.) I really enjoy using it, and I know that in the US... this is a cool toy, elsewhere, much more than that.

In China, Malaysia and India, PicoP technology will be a way for regular people to enjoy media how rich people in the US do. And in India the need for PicoP is huge.

Screen shortage in India

SO, what happens when the investing public's imagination catches fire about a product or anything that grows quickly?

The stock price goes insane. I like to be conservative with estimates, but what if the other investors who find this aren't conservative. (If you're reading this close to its publication date, you are WAY ahead of the normal investor -- PicoP, at this point is almost totally unknown.)

Shake Shack

Shake Shack is a recent IPO. People like their food. Investors like their stock -- probably a little too much.

As of 5/26/2015 at noon eastern time, SHAK is trading at 85.45 with a Price/earnings ratio of 1,225. For each dollar of SHAK earnings, investors are paying $1,225.*

To make this further understandable, Shake Shak has 63 locations. If we divide their market capitalization (3.01 Billion) into those 63 location, we have the value of each restaurant. Each restaurant is [over]valued by the market at 47.7 MILLION dollars. Clearly, the market has exceedingly high hopes for this restaurant chain.

Transfer

So, if a similar situation happened with MicroVision... I'll assume that MicroVision has medium market penetration success, and the same kind of market success that Shake Shack has had... (just to be clear, I'm not suggesting that this will happen, but it can happen, and as an investor, watching for this to happen is a good thing. If the price gets this crazy, the market will have given you a nice opportunity to sell some of your shares at a peak.)

For my exercise I'll assume that during the next year MicroVision collects royalties on 2 million PicoP licenses. My own estimates have been that MicroVision will ultimately collect $12/unit. Further, I'll assume that the cost of goods sold is 40% of that. (Cost of goods on the parts that MVIS provides is 60% -- I am assuming 40% -- AFTER royalty payments -- which could be considered conservative.)

Assuming that MicroVision earns $12/engine. They pay for the cost of the goods, and their standard cash-burn rate. MicroVision ends up with a $7.2 million annual profit.
($12 million is cash burn & 60% of the remaining 12 million is 7.2 million. )

There are 48.5 million shares of MicroVision outstanding.

$7.2/48.5 = .15 (Earnings / shares outstanding = Earnings per share)

At a normal PE range for a growth company (60-80*earnings) the price range to expect there would be between ($9 - $12/share)

What happens if it hits the public imagination like Shake Shack?

.15 * 1,225 = $183.75/share

Do I expect this to happen? No. CAN it happen? Absolutely.




For fun, I'll run the numbers at a major CE product number: ten million

10,000,000 - 1,000,000 (Standard burn rate)
(9,000,000 * 12) * .6 = 64,800,000
64,800,000/48,500,000 = $1.34 
$1.34 * 1,225 = $1,641

*(At the same time, investors in Apple are paying $16.23 per dollar of Apple earnings, or $14.06 per dollar of Caterpillar earnings.)

*Older price estimate
*Valuations

Digital TV channels for Smart Phones

A few months ago, I posted about the Sony TV Tuner. This article from a a Mumbai source, confirms a lot of things: It exists, and it's going forward, and it connects other dots. 

It confirms the idea of a "portable media device" not only being possible, but that it WILL happen, because this is it. 

(Users will be able to record live TV shows. If they can record it, a decent programmer can turn a phone into a DVR in about an hour.)

Portable Media Player (Thoughts on AppleTV)

Sony TV Tuner

Sony world's Smallest TV TUNER

From Mid-Day


Mumbaikars will soon be able to watch TV channels on their smart phones. According to our sources, Doordarshan has already begun the trial run of its Digital Video Broadcast — Terrestrial service and is likely to officially in Mumbai in the next few months.

DVB-T will allow Mumbaikars to watch TV channels on their mobile devices without connecting to Internet or cellular networks. 

While there’s still time for its official launch, vendors are already ready with two devices that allow mobile devices to receive TV signals. And those who are curious about the technology can get a first-hand experience of the same in a special demo session, to be held today evening at the Institution of Engineering, Mahalaxmi. 

Hemant Batra, country manager, Sony Electronics, informed us that the devices use a special digital TV tuner chip developed by Sony, and are available in two different models — a USB dongle variant (priced R2,999) that can be attached directly to smart devices that support USB OTG (on-the-go) devices; and a mini Wi-Fi router variant (R5,999) that can be installed in vehicles, homes as well as offices. 

The Wi-fi router, he adds, requires an external power source and antenna, and allows smart phones to watch TV without any wired attachments, similar to browsing the Web in a local Wi-Fi hub, but the connection is limited to just one device. 

Users will, however, are also required to install TV ON GO (for USB dongle) and Digi Darshan app (for the Wi-Fi variant) to be able to access the broadcast. These apps are already available for both Android and iOS devices from their respective official app stores. Users will also be able to record live TV shows on their smart devices. 

According to our sources, Sony is in talks with Indian smart phone makers to embed the chip directly on smartphones, and is likely to be available in the market by the end of 2015. 

Mumbaikars will be able to purchase the devices directly at the venue, the Institution of Engineers Auditorium between 3 pm-5 pm today. - 

http://www.mid-day.com/articles/watch-dd-tv-channels-on-the-go/16230176#sthash.1W08adwH.dpuf

iPhone 7 with projector article

I'll begin by saying I always take reports like this with a HUGE grain of salt -- we know projectors in phones are coming, and we know PicoP will be part of that - when & how that comes to pass, we don't know.

IF this is true, it is possible that Apple has their own projector in the works. 

I'm quite sure that any mainstream news about little projectors embedded in devices will be good for MicroVision.

@ The Global News

Projector:

According to the rumors, iPhone 7 is expected to have an in-built projector. This is not going to be the only phone to flaunt this feature as Samsung Galaxy Beam has a built-in projector that enables larger viewing experience via phone. But as we all know, Samsung follows in the footsteps on Apple and it has never been the other way around. May be, Apple would teach Samsung a lesson or two on how to incorporate a new technology! If this rumor comes true, most of users who work at corporate houses and use projectors for PowerPoint presentation would rush to buy it.

First 10 core chip.

I've been informed a number of times that multi-core chips make video playback (and a lot of other things) much better on a phone. The more cores, the smoother the playback, the faster the loading and better battery life.

This chip ALSO has a very interesting feature that would make streaming video much more efficient (Extremely high speeds.)

So, this is one of those things to watch -- something that will improve the ecosystem for PicoP technology.



From PhoneArena

Pushing the boundaries are we, MediaTek? The up-and-coming chipmaker just made the long-rumored mobile Helio X20 chipset official, in all of its ten-core glory. Yep, you read that right, the speculations were all true, and the X20 boasts ten Cortex cores in a big.LITTLE configuration. 

Well, the way MediaTek achieved this is a bit iffy, as we have two powerful Cortex-A72 units, clocked at 2.5 GHz, then four lowly Cortex-A53 pieces, running at 2 GHz maximums, then a quad pack of Cortex-A53s again, which has been clocked the lowest, at mere 1.4 GHz. MediaTek calls this a tri-cluster approach, but, surprisingly, all this innovation is aimed at the upper midrange phones of the future, as suggested by the inclusion of only two powerful Cortex-A72s.

The system-on-a-chip (SoC) kit also includes MediaTek's integrated LTE Cat. 6 modem, which allows for up to 300Mbps download speeds, if your carrier can provide those, of course, and all main wireless radios, too. The graphics prowess has been relegated to the yet-announced ARM Mali-T800 GPU, which should be just a step below the scorching Mali-T880. 

The tiny fly in the ointment is that Helio X20 supports "only" DDR3 RAM memory, but MediaTek argues that, since the SoC maxes out at Quad HD display support, DDR3 will be plenty. All that jazz is stuffed into the footprint of the current X10, as the X20 is done with the 20nm production process, and yet it offers 40% stronger performance than the X10, at the same time consuming 40% less power. The deca-core Helio X20 will be sampling to customers in H2 2015, which likely means we will see the first handsets or tablets with it for the holidays at the earliest, and most likely in Q1 of next year. Check out the full X20 specs in the slideshow below.

This is a good article, a little old, but I found it the most comprehensive of those I looked at. This is a very small piece of it. There are great benefits to having multiple cores.

From an article about the benefits of multi-core chips: (At engadget)

"Besides offering a better battery, faster loading, multithreading and improved gaming, we saw a lot of new functionality come to our phones over the last year, and multi-core tech is largely to thank. 1080p video playback and capture, glasses-free 3D technology, improved speech recognition and language processing, improved multimedia, higher-resolution displays, and many more features are much easier to accomplish using dual-core capabilities -- and as we start piling on more cores, it'll get even better."

SONY Code Name "Lavendar"

ラベンダー  -- Lavendar -- in Japanese the flower means "Faithful"

This may be nothing or something big -- this is one of those things that goes up on the "alert" screen. I've been watching this for a while, as the leaks appeared and started to gain a little traction. Then this appeared.

You can read it any way you want to, the language could certainly mean that this is just a slightly larger phablet is going to be produced, or something considerably more interesting. Time will tell.

From iSchoolGuide

"The leaked specs also say the Lavender will come with a Full HD display "bigger than [the] Xperia C4." According to specs listed on GSM Arena, the yet-be-released Xperia C4 has a 5.5-inch 1080 x 1920p IPS LCD display."



From Recombu
"According to the leak it will come with a MediaTek MT6752 64Bit 1.7GHz octa-core SoC and 2GB of RAM, which should deliver reasonably chipper performance. While we don’t yet know what size it will be, the leaker claims it will be bigger than the Sony Xperia C4, which boasts a 5.5-inch screen. "


Ecumenical News

From MobileChoice UK

Nintendo NX -- UPDATED 5/19 & 5/21 & 6/1

This is included here, because this is one of the better articles so far hinting at the new Nintendo game platform (A cross between mobile and console). Being something that is a "completely new concept" is interesting for MicroVision watchers.

I have no idea if there actually is any connection, but concepts like this are those that I'm paying attention too.... eventually we will pop up in a portable gaming system that will be wildly popular with the gaming crowd.

At the rate this story seems to be evolving, I expect that future leaks will eventually describe accurately what this is going to be.

Keeps looking better and better.

AT IGN

Several articles today talk about the system being Android Based (Think portable with smartphones and tablets.

"The "dedicated game platform with a brand-new concept” platform was revealed in March during an announcement of Nintendo's plans to create official Nintendo smartphone games. NX’s unveiling during the briefing served to prove that the move into smartphone games wasn’t a sign of lost passion or vision for dedicated game systems.

While details on NX are currently scarce, Iwata previously stated that Nintendo may take a wildly different direction with the new system than with its past platforms."

From Christianity today.  (Visit if you want, but it's online ad Hell.)

This is why a new rumor has been spreading across the Internet. According to a report from Hardcore Gamer, it is possible that Nintendo is delaying the title's release in order to coincide with the launch of the Nintendo NX, the company's next console. 

Nintendo

The Legend of Zelda Wii-U gameplay demo

However, Nintendo has not yet confirmed if the NX is a home console, a new portable device, or a hybrid of the two. The company also recently signed a partnership with DeNA to work on mobile games, fueling speculations that the NX might be a mobile device like a Nintendo-patented tablet or smartphone. 

If this is the case, then the company might release the new game simultaneously on the Wii-U and the NX, in the same way that "The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess" was launched for the Gamecube and Wii back in 2006, which was the year of the franchise's 20th anniversary. It is possible that Nintendo is repeating the process for the 30th anniversary. 

5/22/2015
From CrossMap

Each explanation reveals a few more slight details.

"Nintendo is making a transfer to smart devices because it is pessimistic about the future for dedicated video game systems.' I intentionally chose to announce the development of NX so early because I wanted to confirm the fact that we are developing a new dedicated video game platform, that we have never lost passion regarding the future for dedicated video game systems and that we have bright prospects for them..."

5/21/2015 From CrossMap

'Nintendo NX' will not be a replacement for Wii U or the 3DS according to Nintendo CEO, Satoru Iwata.

AMD also announced that they are currently working on a design for a "next-generation console scheduled to be released in 2016". If we'll put two-and-two together it seems like AMD is working on the upcoming Nintendo NX.

Iwata further added that the upcoming 'Nintendo NX' will have a "new membership service that encompasses smart devices and dedicated videogame systems".

This will mean that it will be developed for smartphones and tablets as well as DeNa, Wii U, Nintendo 3DS and PC.

What the above is telling me, is that the NX is going to be portable, work with mobile devices, and NOT replace their consoles. That sounds more and more like a potential home for PicoP. At this rate of detail leakage, I'm expecting that we may know just what this is by the end of the summer.

At autoomobile

"Nintendo clarifies that the new console is not made to be a simple replacement for the two consoles. He also added that the new console will be a video game platform that will introduce their fans to a new concept.

They keep emphasizing on the fact that the NX console will introduce us to a brand new concept that was developed after analyzing the different play style of games nowadays."

Complete article @ Gamespot

Nintendo's next dedicated game platform, codenamed NX, is not meant to be a simple "replacement" for the Wii U or 3DS, according to chief executive Satoru Iwata. The English translation of Iwata's remarks from Nintendo's latest earnings report were published today, featuring the new information about NX.

"Though I cannot confirm when it will be launched or any other details of the system, since I have confirmed that it will be 'a dedicated video game platform with a brand new concept,' it should mean that we do not intend it to become a simple 'replacement' for Nintendo 3DS or Wii U," Iwata explained.

Iwata also pointed out that the manner and situations in which people play home consoles and handheld devices have recently become "rather different, especially between Japan and overseas." The executive teased that the NX, in a bid to appeal to the widest possible audience, will offer a "brand new concept."

"Since we are always thinking about how to create a new platform that will be accepted by as many people around the world as possible, we would like to offer to them 'a dedicated video game platform with a brand new concept' by taking into consideration various factors, including the playing environments that differ by country," he explained. "This is all that I can confirm today."

Another article at NintendoEnthusiast

From InsiderMonkey

Microvision, Inc. (NASDAQ:MVIS) is the second largest new addition to the equity portfolio of Cortex Capital Management. The advisory firm owns 500,000 shares of the company with a market value of $1.72 million as of the reporting period. Working primarily in advanced laser display technologies, Microvision has a current market cap of $140.24 million. The shares of Microvision have jumped in excess of 70% year-to-date. Unsurprisingly it has been an excellent year for the technology firm as the company landed a fortune Global 100 Electronics Company as its client and received an $8 million upfront payment from it in March, along with a multi-year contract. The client’s name has been withheld by Microvision. Microvision, Inc. (NASDAQ:MVIS) reported revenue of $0.9 million in its first quarter ending on March 31, 2015, which was lower than its first quarter 2014 revenue of $1.2 million. Some of the top investors of Microvision include Peak6 Capital Management and Citadel Investment Group.

Read more at http://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/herbalife-ltd-hlf-microvision-inc-mvis-new-gold-inc-usa-ngd-among-mark-stupfels-top-new-picks-347001/#eahwKo6dyKqMeYxG.99

Why MicroVision? Because THIS. -- UPDATED 5/25/2015

Everyone wants (and consumers DEMAND) bigger smartphone screens.

MicroVision's PicoP technology makes a HUGE screen (bigger than most people's television sets) fit in a pocket.

Like this: (through a Celluon PicoAir)

Down at the bottom of this picture, is my phone, showing the same content. (These are delicious Dungeness crab I caught for dinner last year.)

Wouldn't you rather share you pictures like this -- so the whole family can see them at once, instead of passing your phone around?

These are ONE picture. That is how big the projected image was, and the phone was sitting right there. It isn't tweaked or size adjusted in any way.

My phone is featured in the same place for each picture. It works for video too.

THIS is why soon EVERYONE will want this technology. 

Taking these pictures was pretty tricky. Due to the nature of a laser-scanning display, with a fast shutter speed, only part of the display will appear. That is one reason the phone screen is a little brighter than it should be in these photos.

I may try to do the same setup and find out what the speed of a single frame is, which would allow a more accurate light comparison. (this one isn't bad, but it's not perfect.)

UPDATE: 5/25/2015

For those of you who would like to see HOW these pictures were taken, see the image below.

* The room was dark -- certainly not totally dark, but the shades in the room are good. It was not too dark for us to see and do the things we needed to do.

* The white wall was a very white wall, and excellent for projected images.

* The camera was on a tripod, because of a slowish shutter speed. (As indicated above, a "snapshot" would end up showing only a band of the projected image.) The shutter was open probably about a quarter to a third of a second -- the target was as fast a shutter speed as possible without seeing a scan line (which you can't seen when you're looking at the projected image.)

* The projector was about four feet from the wall. (the picture of the setup -- including the phone against the wall, is below.)

Thanks T!!

Projector Smartphone

This has been scraped this because the source isn't familiar.

There really isn't any way to know how much weight to give this report as the the source and the company the report is about are fairly unknown.

Would a projector on the BACK of the phone would fit any PicoP engine we've seen so far? Not sure here.

This report is here, and worth paying attention to because it's in the space. 

An early adopter from India wouldn't surprise anyone who is following the company closely.

Wickedleak

From Deccan Chronicle

New smartphone teaser, rumoured with holographic laser keyboard

Francis D'Sa | May 12, 2015, 18.05 pm IST

• inShare
• Printer-friendly version
• Send by email

The smartphone company teased earlier about 3GB of RAM too

Wickedleak, the Indian smartphone company, which is struggling to make a difference in India by offering higher-end devices on lower costs, has just spilled out a new smartphone launch teaser. According to the image, the new smartphone seems to be having something different on the rear panel.

Just below the rear camera is a boxy window, which seems to be highlighted. The company was teasing earlier, on their social page, about a holographic laser keyboard. However, having a holographic laser keyboard would require the projection on the front of the device. With the weird window on the rear, below the camera, it could be a smartphone with a projector. So could it be a smartphone with a holographic rear projection display or a simple smartphone with a projector on the rear panel. Samsung had earlier hosted a similar projector-based smartphone, which was not easily welcomed by the consumer. Sony had also pitched the projector on a video camera, which again was not a success. Is Wickedleak trying something different to impress its fans?

Also some time earlier, the company had also spilled out about a smartphone having 3GB of RAM. This time again there is a ‘4’ in the teaser, which could also mean that it could have a larger battery life.

Recently, Wickedleak had launched their flagship smartphone with a mammoth battery for a 4-day run time. The Titan 4 was pitched for a long battery life along with offering a full HD display, 16 GB of RAM and a fingerprint sensor for a price tag of just Rs 14,999.

So what will the new Wammy smartphone sport? If it is true, the Wammy would take a plunge into the future of communication by implementing a holographic laser keyboard to make texting and email easier for the consumer. However, the specifications are presently up in the air and there is nothing concrete at this moment.