A busy couple of days.

I've been hitting the brain-trust hard, getting opinions from various other people and discussing mine -- a few things that have stuck out from the last few days.... 

all my own (educated?) opinion....



CLASS 1
I suspect that the class 1 reversion mentioned in the CC is part of a multi-level situation -- not all of the parts are related to each other

A) The issue with China is significant. With relative rapidity a large number of countries decided that they were transferring manufacturing OUT of China. (Mentioned here) -- and this was mentioned during the ASM that some issues with China could pop up and cause problems. This certainly would have the potential of throwing all production into chaos and 

This could cause significant disruptions around multiple supply chains.

• This could rearrange manufacturing priorities.
• I don't know, we don't know, probably no one knows the extent of the rearrangement that will be required because of this.
• Suddenly Foxconn's weird behavior in Wisconsin makes sense... they may have been expecting that something was up and wanted to have a foothold somewhere in the US, just in case

B) It is my impression based on previous PicoP projector releases that Class 2 & 3 laser products needed individual approvals for many different countries they went to. This could be a significant impediment to rapid adoption of the tech across national boundaries

C)  there is some stated improvement in the projector brightness with Class 1 lasers.... (related to the April 2017 contract partner?)

There is no such thing as a projector that it's safe or comfortable to look into... I do not think that class1/class3 is a long-term impediment.

But what is most important to me is that they can get the most customers this way. (I'm going to watch for it in portable gaming... because this is easy to do in a dimly lit room and is a HUGE market.)  Xbox Scarlett / Sony - Xbox Partnership


Hololens (Augmented Reality)

This has ALWAYS been a CLASS 1 Laser product!!

(allegedly and possibly, in all likelihood using Microvision's near-eye display -- Laser Mems Display.)

I visited the Microsoft Store near the University Of Washington in Seattle this week. I asked to see the Hololens 2.

They didn't have one in the store, but they connected me with someone who attended the build conference and had the "opportunity" to try it.

"Well, how was it??" I asked.
"I didn't get to try it" she replied.
"What?"
"The line was 200 people long to try it. I didn't have time -- people that had tried it absolutely raved about it." she said.

Combine that with the results from Airbus and NASA... I think Microsoft has a problem... a really good one to have. The results with this thing are so fantastic that they're not going to be able to keep up.

If you approach a company with a tool that can improve their efficiency by 10-15% reliably, they're going to be really happy. 97% better? 80% better.... that is a stunning, mind-bending improvement. I'm extremely confident that this will be a run-away success. NASA , Airbus

Given patent flow, I think the next company out the gate is Apple. (remember, Microvision can sell this to whoever they want to once the development is done) 

Also tried these... not great next to Hololens, and we're pretty sure --- same field of view as an iPad mini held at arms length.

China Scrambles to stem manufacturing exodus as 50 companies leave

I had been curious that this could be an issue. During the ASM trade tensions with China was an issue mentioned and discussed.

This is one possibility of why a 1 quarter delay could be extended. 

One of the many things to watch, I see it as a long-term positive, short term disruptive event.

Thanks Mike

Asia.nikkei.com


TOKYO/SHANGHAI -- China is racing to keep foreign enterprises in-country, dangling special benefits so that the advantages of staying outweigh the heavy tariffs imposed by the U.S.

A year into the trade war with Washington, more than 50 global companies, including Apple and Nintendo, have announced or are considering plans to move production out of China, Nikkei research has found.

And not just foreign companies. Chinese manufacturers, as well as those from the U.S., Japan and Taiwan, are part of the drain, including makers of personal computers, smartphones and other electronics.

Financial Times
Foxconn will start mass production of displays, car electronics and servers for the US market at its new plant in Wisconsin by the end of next year, Mr Liu said, and plans to invest $1.5bn and employ up to 2,000 people by the end of 2020. At the first investor conference Foxconn hosted in its 45-year history, the world’s largest electronics manufacturer and largest assembler of Apple’s iPhone presented a new management structure designed to deal with the exit of Terry Gou, its founder, from day-to-day business as he runs for president of Taiwan.

Microsoft Video

Conference Call, Being disoriented & Half of One Percent

I've been really busy, didn't even have a chance to give the CC transcript a thorough read until yesterday.

It was interesting to get reactions from people about the CC for a few days.

Yes, it was disorienting. I wasn't particularly happy with the call: -- it wasn't what we expected, and some things will occur later than expected -- with confusion over class 1 vs class 3.

Some wording about "lead customers," that could cause confusion and lower numbers than we expected on we expect is Hololens.

I have little doubt that the long term prospects of MicroVision haven't changed.

"Very soon" or "imminent" mean different things when you're a small company, individual person or one of the largest commercial concerns in the world. 

I assume that the April 2017 contract means Hololens. They have been working on this project for a very long time. MicroVision produces one of many critical components. 

It also requires system software, and application software to be developed before release so that something can actually be done with it.

It's a difficult development process, and I'm sure the "chicken and egg" problem comes into play often.

There will be also marketing concerns, and market position questions that come into play -- that we don't consider when we come from the perspective of wanting to sell components to a company. (This, about jousting between AMD and NVIDIA is and interesting case study.)

* Class 1 vs class 3. I'm no laser expert, so I consulted one. Apparently the difference between the two classes is minimal from a purely physical view.

However... when it comes to the ability to market devices using lasers in different countries, the reduction in regulatory hoop-jumping may make it worth doing the switch. (if you have to run through various proofs to be sure class 3 is harmless, it could cause delays, and expenses that slow adoption down.... if the same brightness or near the same brightness can be delivered by class 1 lasers, it may well be worth the delay.)

* "Lead customers" -- I don't know, but based on everything I've seen prior to now, there are customers for these products. A "Lead Customer" may be the customer that MicroVision decides to favor as products are developed. Likely similar to near-eye display having multiple interested customers and MicroVision chose to focus on the company that got the April 2017 contract. 

There was still a clause in the contract that once development was done MicroVision can sell the results to whoever they want.

I'm not certain that this is exactly what was meant, but no other explanation so far has seems plausible to me.

* Hololens 

There still isn't "proof" that MicroVision is in Hololens, but enough circumstantial evidence has been accumulated that I at this point that I'm having a difficult time finding a place to doubt it. Those of us who are watching this company and those developments are mostly in the same position.

That doesn't mean, however that the rest of the investing world either sees this, or agrees with it. (In fact, most of the world still thinks that what Hololens can do is distant science fiction.)

This, I believe is very close. A lot of the payoff is going to come in the form of people wanting to get in... investor world FOMO.

To analyze that, look at the potential for the tech, and probable investor behavior when the tech becomes widely known.

MOST people don't sift through tech magazines looking for stuff to invest in, or assessing potential. They go to work, have fun on the weekends, and only pay a lot of attention when something gets a lot of buzz.... look at what happened with Bitcoin for the perfect example of Investor behavior.


Hololens Potential

Hololens and Spaceflight --- this article had very interesting specifics on the effect of Hololens in action doing things --- Hololens requires a near-eye display. 

• The team was able to cut down the time spent joining components and torquing bolts to precise specifications by 30 to 50 percent. Rather than having to thumb through the instructions to know how many pounds of pressure a specific bolt requires, that information is displayed directly atop the bolt by the HoloLens, Peterson explained.
• What used to take a technician a full 8-hour shift to complete can now be done in 15 minutes (15 minutes vs 480 minutes) (97% greater efficiency)
• What would take a pair of technicians three days to do can now be done by a single technician in two and a half hours. (5 hours vs 144 hours) (97% greater efficiency)
• an activity that normally takes eight shifts," Peterson said. "They completed it in six hours." (6 hours vs 64 hours) (90% greater efficiency)

These are measurable results that can't be ignored.... and it's ability to help people learn will be amazing. Once this is known, not only will there be a lot of people trying to get in on this as an investment, but they will on the suppliers as well, and MicroVision will (almost certainly) be one of them.

.... and don't forget Pokemon Go.

Anticipating investor reaction... 

This is where it can get fun. (This is all my own opinion... you can do what you want with it, but this is a significant reason I'm holding on tight to this company's stock)

As an example. Say an investor 2000 shares of Microsoft stock. This person doesn't pay much attention to it, except maybe watching the monthly price rise. Then a bunch of buzz happens about their new, amazing technology. 

So, you take a few hours, and look at it. You see this supplier that makes the amazing display. So the investor sells ONE share of Microsoft and puts it into MicroVision. Market order.

Do the math on what happens if Half of one percent of the money invested in Microsoft comes out of Microsoft and lands in Microvision. Rather than consider the upward pressure on the stock because of demand, just look at it as a one to one transfer. (It's not crazy talk.)

Sci-Fi Predictions.

Mensans predict at Comicon

Many of today’s latest technological advancements were first described in science fiction. With the advent of smart watches and voice recognition commands, the world is starting to look more and more like the science fiction of yesterday.

The Comic-Con panel included American Mensa chairperson LaRae Bakerink, attorney/writer Doug Ecks, writer/actor Nevin Millan, professor/Star Trek expert John Putman, professor/writer Jenny Rankin and writer/publisher Ian Randal Strock.

Here’s what the nerd geniuses had to say — both good and bad — about what real-world science we might see in the next 10 to 20 years based on the science fiction writing of the past and today.

Holographic technology

“At some point in the next 20 to 30 years, we’ll be able to at least have a full experience of holographic technology,” Putnam said.

Availability of Hololens 2?

Based on this (likely from a Press Release... still looking) and from Microsoft Store, I'll hazard a guess the release is soon.

They're releasing a 90 day trial version of their software with additional Hololens 2 features.

It also suggests there may be other versions of Hololens 2 available very soon. (Hololens OR Windows Mixed Reality Immersive Headset Required)

Further, it looks like it will be a wide release, with support over a wide area.


Dynamics 365 gets new Hololens 2 experience


Some changes have been brought for HoloLens 2 as well. To start off, Layout will automatically be downloaded and installed on HoloLens 2 during its start-up, with users being able to immediately access the app using their Azure Active Directory credentials. Furthermore, there is now improved localization support for Layout on the mixed reality headset, with support for the following locales becoming available:

• US
• Canada (English and French)
• UK
• Australia
• Germany
• France
• China
• Japan
• Taiwan (no speech support)
• Hong Kong (no speech support)

Microsoft recently announced new integrations for Dynamics 365 ahead of its ongoing Inspire 2019 partner's conference. If you do not currently own Layout, you can download it here from the Microsoft Store for a free 90-day trial.

At Microsoft:

Upon download, users will have access to Layout free of charge for 90 days. After the 90 day trial period, a paid Dynamics 365 Layout license is required. Important note: Microsoft HoloLens or Windows Mixed Reality immersive headset are required to use Layout for more information on how to purchase layout, contact a Microsoft representative 

Blackview Max Disassembly

It takes some seriously intelligent people to think this stuff up.

The fine-tuned engineering sitting in this very small machined aluminum box is some next-level stuff.

I'm nearly certain that this is leftover Ragentek Inventory.

And In case you need it: From the video at 5:52

Wear this and learn your job

Do not doubt how big this will be.



New York Times

CHILLICOTHE, Ohio — When Toby Bouska Jr. started assembling cabs for Kenworth semitrucks last year, he learned the ropes by observing longtime workers at the factory. But it wasn’t exactly engaging, and he didn’t get much practice doing the job himself.

“It’s them doing the job, and you just have to watch,” said Mr. Bouska, 21, who works at Kenworth’s plant in Chillicothe. “I’m not really good at just sitting there watching.”

But then his managers had him train in a new way: with a high-tech headset. They gave him a Microsoft HoloLens, a device that blends digital imagery with the real world. When he wore the headset, it overlaid digital arrows and diagrams over the parts he was looking at, helping to guide his work.

“With the HoloLens, it’s just you and the directions,” Mr. Bouska said. He said he had picked up his first new task in about 20 minutes.

The latest version of HoloLens, which ships later this year, will be more tailored to workers than this original model.CreditAndrew Spear for The New York Times

Microsoft estimates that two billion frontline workers have access to fast internet connections and are, in theory, potential customers. In a call with investors this year, Satya Nadella, Microsoft’s chief executive, said selling products for firstline workers expanded the market Microsoft could tap into.

Pixel 4

XDA Developers

Air Gestures

Perhaps the most interesting Pixel 4 leak we’ve seen is the possible use of air gestures, operating the device without having to touch the display. Google’s Project Soli radar chip was first introduced in 2015 at Google I/O, then demonstrated in action working on prototype smartwatch and smart speakers the following year. Indications surfaced in June that this chip might finally be ready for prime time since “skip” and “silence” (mute) media playback gestures are being worked on in Android Q that would require the support of such a chip for the phone to be “aware” of when the user makes such a gesture. While mainline Android Q seems to have a rather limited implementation for exploiting the capabilities of this radar chip, I have no doubt that the development community will come up with some more interesting uses.

I'm really busy, haven't even had a chance to watch this.

Driveby at Oculus

I drove by again the facility that is Oculus in Redmond. (Traveling and had a little time to kill.) The facility is about 4 miles from Microvision's HQ

A couple of years ago when I drove by and took a picture my phone asked if I wanted to tag the picture I took at Oculus. 

The outside of the building is absolutely unmarked. Nothing that says Facebook anywhere.

This is a picture of the directory -- 9845 is Facebook.

New outside is the "intercampus shuttle" -- which tells me that they either already have an additional facility, or they are going to some other company's campus. (The Microsoft HQ they call a "campus") This sign is in front of Facebook's building, not Microsoft's. 

And I'm not an HVAC expert, (maybe someone here is, but this looks like a cooling system that is behind Facebook's building. Interesting the amount of security around it, and it sure sounded like things were running.

If anyone can add any color to what might be going on here, I'd be interested. (needing really cold temperatures for something?)

Jerry Rig Everything -- Multiple verticals

Nice video, looks like it got a lot of attention in a very short amount of time.

Multiple verticals -- display only, Interactive display, Near Eye display, LiDAR