Connecting Conference Call Dots...

By Ronald Stauber

Our activities related to our Interactive Display solutions resulted in a major step forward during the past few months as customer due diligence work has now led to negotiations for a component purchase agreement that we aim to complete this quarter* for a targeted launch of our Interactive Display module in 2020. 

"...we aim to complete" seems to imply that terms have been agreed to and the ball is in MicroVision's court with the contract sitting on PM's desk waiting for him to sign and reveal at an opportune moment. I believe that he has learned his lesson of prematurely announcing expectations from the delay caused by Tier-1s requesting the switch to Class 1 laser light engines.

"These engagements over the past few quarters continue to reinforce our belief that MicroVision has the potential with our Interactive Display product to sell 1 to 3 million units during the first 12 to 24 months of production.

If 3 million units = $100 million in revenue, then we can estimate our expected revenue to be in the area of $33 per unit.

We believe that this capability expands the potential market for our Interactive Display products to include personal mobile gaming devices. With a larger potential market, we believe that we have increased the opportunity for our Interactive Display product to sell well in excess of 10 million units to multiple customers.

So 10 million additional Interactive Display units sold for mobile gaming should lead to revenues of about $330 million with margins increasing due to economies of scale! 

I believe that the TAM will be much greater, but let us err on the conservative side.

I think that is pretty exciting!

I agree, Mr. Mulligan!

Leveraging our years of Laser Beam Scanning experience and our demonstrated capabilities in LiDAR, the Automotive LiDAR vertical is a natural fit for MicroVision. That said, we needed to develop critical additional capabilities to meet some of the performance requirements in this space. With new IP for these innovations recently filed we believe we have the right solution at the right time. Early in 2019 we engaged several top tier Automotive OEMs and presented an outline of our first product to market. This product would be intended to support up to ADAS Level 3 autonomy.

So MicroVision has been working on this vertical for some time in silence and has filed for patents on new IP, and in early 2019 engaged with several top tier Automotive OEMs. Sounds like NRE opportunities exist along the lines of the April 2017 contract with Microsoft and revenues from this could result. Now which Automotive OEMs were heavily committing to Microsoft HoloLens2? Toyota was one, IIRC.

So we could be looking at MicroVision revenues over $400 million, not counting HoloLens2 and other AR/MR contributions or Display Only or Consumer LiDAR, in the next few years from a public company selling for $0.75 per share currently. 

And now it's all public information if you know how to read between the lines.