Sunday, June 11, 2017

What do YOU think the price of Microvision Might get to? (UPDATED Again)

** Updated because of requests/suggestions **

ADDED Expenditures

So if you're holding this stock and wondering where it might go....

Once during the ASM I did this exercise with another shareholder, and asked if I was being reasonable. My own numbers don't really matter. Use your numbers.

There are several variables that factor into it:

  • How much do you think Microvision will earn each time PicoP is installed?
  • What % of smartphones sold world wide do you think will have it installed (eventually?)
  • What do you think the price to earnings ratio of Microvision's stock will be when that happens?
There are other variables that are there that you may wish to tweak:
  • The number of Microvision Shares outstanding (set to current number -- if you're worried about more dilution, adjust that number.)
  • The total smartphone market last year, 1.4 Billion were sold. If you think it's going to grow or shrink, adjust the number.
  • ADDED -- Annual expenditures. Set at 20 Million which is somewhat higher than current expenditures. Additional produced volume will not significantly increase expenditures. (With even minimal optimism, this number gets lost fairly quickly.)
  • ADDED TAXES -- Tax rates vary for companies, sometimes wildly. Sometimes they get tax benefits, they pay more some years than others. For purposes of this I put the default tax rate as the AVERAGE of the last several years found here: Microsoft Tax Rate. For the sake of simplicity, I left it at 22%. 
This exercise does NOT consider heads up displays, smart speakers, near eye displays, 3d scanning, self driving cars and robotics. There's more where this came from.

Compare PE ratios with current PE ratios of some tech companies....salesforce, yelp, grubhub, mobile eye, TakeTwo... 

Change any number in a box and click "calculate" and come up with your own.

What's your price target?
How much do you think Microvision will profit for each PicoP sold?
What % of smartphones sold do you think will use it?
What do you think the PE of the stock will be when this happens?
Static Variables(you can still change)
Microvision Shares Outstanding
Total Smartphone market: 2016
Total Microvision expenditures annual
Effective Tax Rate (%)
* * * * * * * * *
Number of PicoP Installations you expect
Total Earnings Before Taxes you expect
Microvision Earnings After Taxes
Microvision Net Earnings Per Share
Microvision Price Per Share that you expect

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