Friday, August 8, 2025

Building a skyscraper.

You own a two-acre parcel in downtown Miami right now. You bought it when it was covered just with gravel and weeds, but you could see the promise it holds. It's enormously valuable, even though it's not yet producing income. {200 million}
Holding onto this valuable asset could be challenging. 
The surrounding properties, though often far less valuable, generate income, making them more comfortable to retain. A smaller, less valuable vacant lot—covered with gravel and weeds and costing you money without providing income—might feel easier to hold onto.
Eventually, it’s time to build a tall structure on the site: multiple money-generating endeavors in the same structure; residential, hotel, commercial. Leases are already signed. Payments won’t begin until tenants move in.
You wait and observe.
I recall watching a similar site in Minneapolis years ago. Work began with numerous vehicles moving material out of the lot. Months passed. Then material was brought in. Lines of trucks would arrive, yet it remained just a hole in the ground. More than a year went by, and it stayed that way—we grew accustomed to seeing only a hole.
Then, without warning, a tall building grew rapidly. Every time we looked that way it was taller, until it was finished and making its owners rich.
Much of the preparation for the structure happened out of sight—except below grade, where the workers toiled—until, suddenly, it emerged as a glorious edifice.

Tuesday, May 20, 2025

Brain Trust compares Microvision to a biotech.

Last night, before the investor meeting in Redmond, a collection of investors -- representing lots of shares -- got together for dinner.


One comment struck me, at the time and gave food for thought for the rest of the evening. 


"Microvision is a lot like a biotech." Investing in it is a lot like investing in a Biotech company. 


In that Biotech companies, investors invest a lot of money with no guarantees that it will meet approval, etc, but that if it does... the returns are huge.


Sure there haven't been earnings, but if we compare to a biotech company, this company has the equivalent of a cure for cancer -- and also a side-effect free cure for obesity --electronics version. 


The near eye display has the potential to change cure sore necks by putting the display front and center when you're standing up, and the LiDAR to prevent accidents, and serve numerous other functions by allowing machinery to see.


Not delivering income at the moment is problematic for investors, of course. But there is solid value under that. 

Monday, April 21, 2025

Tuesday, April 18, 2023

The Eventual Discussion on AR

Yes, I was at the investor meeting, and I'm excited about our inroads into ADAS, and think we really have the stuff that the automotive industry needs.

I still think that eventually AR will give us a bigger return -- or at least a nice lump sum return.

AR is not Dead. It is something very valuable that MicroVision has worked on.

While MicroVision has created a key piece, they aren't in the position to create the market. Other companies are. They are huge companies, one of them is using MicroVision's tech now, on a very expensive development project. (small and not hard)

There are naysayers who say "AR is dead."

No, not dead. It might be like the cocoon that the caterpillar spun around itself.. the worm crawled in, and will become the butterfly.. not sure when though.

Those other monstrous companies do want to create the market.... and this near eye display works. The other ones don't, not very well. Not good enough.

Those other companies have a lot of money, and they will want it eventually - and I believe suddenly.

I think we're going to wake up one day, when one of those companies has decided it's going to create the AR market for themselves, and they're going to want this display badly. 

The negotiations with the trillion dollar companies might go like this.

Wednesday, April 5, 2023

I will be attending the upcoming investor event

Next week is a Microvision investor event.

I'm still bullish.

I've purchased more shares recently. (Who wouldn't follow the CEO as he takes money from his own pocket to buy more?)

I've been working as a charter pilot lately, and got time off to attend.

For those who are attending -- I'm looking forward to meeting as many of you as I can.


Thursday, January 20, 2022

An Effort to do some noise reduction.



I'm offering a timeline of recent events. I think the AR space is heating up significantly, and someone is going to make a move soon. 

If we are priced taking into account the enormous number of subscriptions that the near eye display can enable.... that's great thing. (The last presentation made noises about a subscription-like model for LiDAR)

...will the ultimate valuation of the NED vertical take into consideration the enormous potential for sales of subscriptions through these devices? My bet is yes. 

In my humble opinion, that would make it worth more than Activision. (That's how I see it, you make up your own mind.)

March 2021

  • “We believe that MR/AR products could replace all display-equipped electronics in the long term” (CultofMac)

September 2021

This is a particularly interesting month. 

October 28, 2021

  • Investor Place Interview 15:10 - 15:15 RAYBAN Mentioned 
  • Barrons: Apple could replace iPhone with Augmented Reality Devices
    This might be something to ignore, but the Barrons has good credibility and Ming-Chi Kuo has excellent credibiliy in calling Apples moves and products.

    Applescoop has him at 80+% reliability -- when dealing with a company that is as secretive as Apple, that's very impressive. (His run of good calls is MUCH longer than what is on the linked page

December 28, 2021

The development must be viewed through the prism of the ongoing talent war between Apple and Meta, formerly Facebook. According to reports so far, Meta has been poaching key engineers from Apple’s silicon, augmented reality, wearable, hardware and software divisions for the past few months.

January 6, 2022


This tells me that they're in a bigger hurry than they used to be, or things have heated up and they need to accelerate their previous delivery targets.

If you can own your own OS you can have more control. If you do it faster -- you may have to share with someone else, but there may be additional benefits to being faster. (Android has been the platform so far) 

January 10, 2022

January 18, 2022

January 25, 2022 (Thanks S2upid!)




Maybe this explains better?

Big Tech AR GAME owner:

"We can make HUGE money with subscriptions to these games."
MicroVision Representative:

"I know you want to buy our Near Eye vertical based only on the "widget" value it has.

We are going to sell it to you based on the widget value PLUS the value you will get from being able to sell future subscriptions. (and ads, and in-app purchases...)

In the case of Activision, that's $68.7 Billion for 31 games.

Steam has 50,000 games. It looks like the fruit company wants to make near eye display replace all the screens... your move.

{maybe we need to focus on ads... just imagine how intrusive Facebook could be when it highlights the business it's advertising as you walk past it.}




Facebook-Ray Ban Glasses (PR started in September 2021)

FACEBOOK RAYBAN SEPTEMBER 2021 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Monday, January 10, 2022

Recent Presentation and the Upside.

1st Things first. Whatever you buy or sell is on you. 

I know this is read by other people, but it started as a place for me to keep my notes and not lose them -- and that's largely what it still is, and I haven't been keeping as up on things as I used to.

Posts are rare now, largely because there are a lot more eyes on Microvision than there used to be and you can see a lot of discussion, references and new information on the r/mvis reddit board... 


  • The most valuable part of MicroVision is the Near Eye display. 
    • As much as the focus of the investing public is on LiDAR, don't forget this.
    •  it's big enough that I think that LiDAR could serve its primary function as a distraction.
    • Apple / Barrons -- AR device 4th Quarter 2022. (Ming-Chi Kuo rarely gets things wrong.)
      • "Apple will launch an augmented-reality headset in the fourth quarter of 2022, and could sell more than a billion of the new devices over the next 10 years, one analyst asserted in a research note Friday."
    • Replace All Screens?
  • Given 4th Quarter 2022, Near Eye Display is likely to have a breakthrough very soon.
    • Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft and other players are ALL working on Augmented Reality technology and content.
    • MicroVision has BEST near eye display solution in the world. 
    • The Near Eye Display could be sold as a whole at any time
    • Some other arrangement involving Near Eye Display could show up. (and value based on subscriptions -- would be most profitable for us. (Look at the Beats post, and the Microvision presentation to see that.)
  • Companies desperate for AR.... will be REALLY good for Microvision Stockholders       
  • The number of subscriptions that can be sold with AR devices is ENORMOUS. If we have the value proposition for near eye display changing to emulate the way the value proposition has just been modified for LiDAR as illustrated in the recent Microvision LiDAR presentation.... then.... we will do really well.


  • Microsoft has gotten HUGE increases in productivity with Hololens, and AR Games... will be gigantic.

I believe they are quiet about the near eye display on purpose and for strategic reasons.. (NDA, deal underway.... negotiating tactic.... )

As Snow tells me... the elephant in the room named Ned...

Regarding the presentation.....


The presentation was about LiDAR, and a new way to monetize it. That's a pretty good reason that they talked only about LiDAR.

  • The Microvision presentation changed no timelines...
  • The Presentation described a means of increasing revenue with LiDAR


Thursday, January 6, 2022

Monday, November 1, 2021

Augmented Reality is Real...

Facebook will be ticker MVRS


Apple Google Facebook Microsoft are all working on Augmented Reality.

MicroVision's near eye display is so good that Microsoft created their AR device around it. (Their words, not mine) and then claimed credit for creating it.

Microvision CEO says "our AR display is DONE."

Mentions that it fits in RayBans during a recent interview. (If someone can come up with the time-stamp, and use the e-mail form for the moment in the interview, I'll include it here.)

Near eye display guy who was at Microvision and moved to Microsoft, moves to Facebook... on the same day that Facebook announced a deal with Rayban

Then, Facebook, does a big presentation about AUGMENTED REALITY -- the METAVERSE



The AR vertical (In my humble opinion) is for sale.

Facebook would be wise to offer more than 10 billion, or they may lose to a higher offer from Apple, Google, or Microsoft.

(I'd vote my shares to taking the higher offer, unless maybe it's from Microsoft who claimed credit for MicroVision's hard work, Microsoft will have to do WAY better.)

Whoever buys us gets to sell AR displays to the other three for a LONG time.



Joanna Makris has a lot in common with Kelli Stavast

Friday, October 1, 2021

Tuesday, September 28, 2021

AMAZON GLOW

This sure looks like us.... 

 




Amazon announces new video calling device for kids called Amazon Glow

Amazon announced a new product aimed at kids that combines video calling with games coming from a projector. The projected graphics respond to touch.

The aim is to make video calls more engaging for children, Amazon said. Games like “Tangram Bits” allow the kids to solve puzzles on the projected surface while the parent videoconferences from a standard tablet. The device has a “privacy shutter” that turns the camera off.

Disney, Mattel, Nickelodeon, and Sesame Street characters are signed up to make games for the device. Amazon said it would open it up to some outside developers next year.

It costs $249, but won’t be released widely at first and ordering one will require an invitation. People can sign up to test it starting today and Amazon will start shipping devices in “the coming weeks.” — Kif Leswing

Sunday, September 26, 2021

"My Missing MVIS Shares"

 They aren't MY missing MVIS Shares, but the title of a Reddit thread.

MUST reading.

Reddit MVIS

Tuesday, August 10, 2021

ORTEX Short Squeeze Alert

When Mike texted this to me this morning, I'm thinking "whoopie-doopie another one of these. They're common. I see them all the time from people who are selling clicks. Who cares?

I texted back "so what does it mean?" 

The only thing that matters is what it means.

He didn't respond in a timely manner so I started looking into it.

This one is good.

TWITTER ORTEX SHORT SQUEEZE SIGNAL

 


On May 15, Ortex Issued a Short Squeeze Alert for AMC

They issued the alert at about $12.98 for AMC.  11 trading days later it closed at nearly 5X the price it was when the alert was issued. It's still at three times the price.

MVIS has better fundamentals than AMC.

 

I'll hold for this one.


 

Tuesday, July 20, 2021

The original investing premise for Microvision: Everyone wants a smaller device and a bigger screen

STILL HOLDS TRUE.

Just add some LiDAR into the mix.

The video (I'm about 4 minutes in so far, is a great explanation of AR, and how MicroVision can create more screen real estate.)

AUGMENTED reality Near Eye Displays are worth at least what LiDAR will be worth.

I think a LOT more. 

We are likely in my opinion to get more value in the near term from LiDAR.

What's it worth? 

My recent price target was Minimum of LAZR X 2 Market cap. 


I stand by all my valuation estimates still and I'm happily holding.

APPLE, GOOGLE, AMAZON & MICROSOFT are ALL WORKING ON AUGMENTED REALITY AND SELF-DRIVING VEHICLES....

 Four Companies are all working on two things as "the next big things" Augmented Reality and Self driving vehicles.

Combined they are worth 6.921 Trillion
Together they have 340 billion in cash

If they have a bidding competition for key technology that will give them an edge against the others, how much would they be willing to pay? 

Is 20 Billion too much? (That's about $130/share)

Friday, June 11, 2021

Ferrari has appointed electronics pioneer Benedetto Vigna as its new chief executive

CNBC

 

Ferrari has appointed electronics pioneer Benedetto Vigna as chief executive as the company gears up for the age of electric vehicles.

Vigna will join Ferrari on Sept. 1 from semiconductor firm STMicroelectronics, where he is head of its sensors group.

The Italian sportscar maker announced the appointment in a statement Wednesday. Former CEO Louis Camilleri stepped down for personal reasons in December after a reported battle with Covid-19.

Ferrari said Vigna has experience working for some of the world’s leading technology companies. But the 52-year-old Italian’s appointment has come as a surprise to many given he has not previously worked for an automotive company or a luxury brand.

 

Tuesday, April 6, 2021

Explained by a sock

 This is good enough (at minute 6) That it's going on.


Thanks for the heads up, OmerJ


 

Cool... this blog gets a mention.

Friday, April 2, 2021

Whats the difference between Niantic and IVAS?

What's 1,000,000,000 / 120,000?

According to my calculations the Niantic heads up we got last week is 8,333 times better than the IVAS news.

There have been more than a billion downloads of Pokemon Go, and the IVAS go-ahead is for 120,000 units.

Pokemon Go is still going strong -- that's Niantic.

Grayson is pretty on top of things.

WATCH THIS BEFORE YOU GO FURTHER -->>>


If you haven't done so, watch this video that he posted last year comparing Digilens to MicroVision. (If it walks like a duck... you know the saying.) HERE
                               

<<<--- WATCH THIS BEFORE YOU GO FURTHER


Don't get me wrong, the IVAS news is FANTASTIC -- it proves the value, proves it works, proves that it's tough enough to fit Military Standards (Look HERE) The dual news flash... wow. 

But the 120,000 units and the volume from that contract isn't the big news.


Volume of production would be the big news. Niantic is that. (Not yet confirmed, I know, but I'm confident it's right.... whether or not you are confident is up to you.)

Pokemon Go information from Business of APPS 

The game launched in July 2016, and became not just a smash hit game, but a global cultural phenomenon; in the summer of 2016, it seemed as if there was no getting away from Pokémon GO. There was even a Pokémon GO Frappuccino! How many games get a drink named after them at Starbucks? How many games inspire 200,000 Spotify playlists?

Pokémon GO Overview

LaunchedJuly 2016
Parent companyNiantic
HQSan Francisco, California
Key peopleTatsuo Nomura (Pokémon GO director), John Hanke (Niantic CEO)

Key Pokémon GO User Statistics

Cumulative Pokémon GO downloads
September 2016500 million
February 2017650 million
July 2017750 million
May 2018800 million
March 20191 billion

If you don't believe in Pokemon, you don't need to. Of course they wouldn't build single-purpose eyewear. You just need to believe in "walking around games" and Niantic is great at it, and so is UNREAL -- who builds their sofware engine for everyone.

Niantic VS IVAS

******************************************************************

You can change the static variables, but the share float doesn't change often, the tax rate is based on Large Tech companies, MicroVision expenditures are a guess -- actually all of this is a guess, but it is a way for you to play with some of the numbers.

When I test IVAS: (My numbers - you do your numbers.)
Augmented Reality Headsets Produced = 120000
How much will MVIS profit from each?  = 1000
% of AR headsets you think will use it? 100
PE when this happens? = 80

When I test Niantic - the consumer market: (My numbers - you do your numbers)
Augmented Reality headsets produced:     250000000 (250 Million)
How much will MVIS profit from each:   10
% of AR headsets you think will use it:     80
PE when this happens:                                80

Use your own numbers, and remember that buyouts happen with substantially different numbers. Calculating Buyout using EBITDA (To set the buyout number here, I'd guess at increases in sales, average the next five years set expenditures and tax rate to zero, and use 5-15 as the PE. -- remember this is a single vertical.)

(These numbers are without commas, because commas will make the calculator break. Javascript is a pain in the ass.)


What's YOUR price target?
(Erase the "*" in the green space and pick your number.)
My baseline is $5 ea / 90% of AR Headsets/ PE of 80

How much will MicroVison will profit from each AR Set?
What % of AR Headsets sold do you think will use it?
What do you think the PE of the stock will be when this happens?

Microvision Shares Outstanding { Static }
Augmented Reality Headsets produced (annual)
Total Microvision expenditures annual { Static }
Effective Tax Rate (%)  { Static }

* * * * * * * * *
Number of AR headsets with MVIS you expect
Total Earnings Before Taxes you expect
Microvision Earnings After Taxes
Microvision Net Earnings Per Share
Microvision Price Per Share that you expect