Monday, July 10, 2017

From where do you measure? (one theory, seeking more)

Had a few interesting conversations in the last couple of months about the measurement of potential growth of Microvision.

At the ASM there was something very interesting that was kind of surprising. The people in the know at the company seem to be even more excited about the 3D scanning capabilities of PicoP than they are with projection. (Don't misconstrue anything, there's a lot to be excited about with portable projection!) 

Which led to a puzzle: how do you measure the potential demand for something that doesn't really yet have a market?

I have bounced this question off several friends who are into Microvision.

Display Potential:
When we're talking displays it's fairly easy to measure the potential:
  • We have a clear stats on the number of portable computers that exist in the world. 
  • We know the growth rate of the market, and  the demand and desire for displays. 
  • We know that there will be a demand for larger displays in smaller packages.
  • If we take a known segment of this market, we can make a relatively educated guess about the limits of demand. 

That, resulted in the creation of the calculator, which could accommodate differing opinions and hopefully help everyone figure out where they think things are going to go. 

3D Scanning Potential:
So, measuring potential in an as yet untapped market is more problematic, at least for me.

One way that I'm considering it, is that you could take every machine that could move on its own that's more expensive than a certain threshold, and expect that it would eventually have one or more 3D laser scanners in it. That's still very difficult to quantify, and I'm not yet sure if it's a useful model.

One of the people I discussed this with however talked about something that does make a lot of sense and said that with 3D scanning, the company should be able to command significantly margins on what is produced.

Higher Margins:
The logic goes like this: If you have an embedded projector in a smart phone, you're still not going to use the projected image more often than you use the built in screen. Most of the time it will be in your pocket, and you'll pull it out for a quick check of something. Occasionally, you'll share big pictures or watch media.

But if you have a 3D scanner on a robot, that thing will be working 24 hours/day, 100% of the time. That's a high duty cycle, and customers will pay more for that.

Good thought as far as I'm concerned, but I'm still trying to figure out how to anticipate the number of possible installations. Seems like it would be a lot.

People who I think are smarter than I, who know more than me about the space seem to have great enthusiasm for this particular Microvision product.

Thanks Fru

No comments:

Post a Comment