Sunday, May 6, 2018

Original premise still solid

When I originally noticed MicroVision in 2006, a very simple and powerful premise presented itself, and it still stands. It's more valid now than it was then. The ecosystem is much improved since then.

The phone is at the bottom, the projected picture is the rest.

I spoke to a friend the other day about the concept of "hope" in his life, as in hoping things would go well for his business that day, or that week or this year.

He's in a business that is more reliant on hope than most. Service is held out to the public; when people want the service they come. Sometimes, for no particular reason (beyond things you "hope" about) business will be booming, maybe unexpectedly. Sometimes it will be pathetically slow -- without explanation. People call, or they don't, and from the viewpoint of a small business, it's difficult to predict. They "hope" for a good outcome on any particular day.

With larger audiences, "hope" is much less of a factor. When you have an enormous audience, you hope you can get a large part of it. You can count on -- you can depend on -- getting a small fraction of it.
There are more people on earth with smart phones than there are people on earth with flushing toilets -- what most of the world regards to be basic sanitation.
If what you're producing a product that has applications to an enormously popular other product. You don't need hope.

If you're producing a product that answers the largest desire for an improvement in that product you need even less hope.

If you're producing a product that answers the two largest desires for improvement in a hugely popular product you can count on positive results.

When the two biggest desires for improvement of a popular product are directly contradictory to each other and you can still deliver BOTH improvements. You're made of gold.

Everyone wants two things from a smartphone: something that's smaller and easier to carry, with a much larger display.

Mobile companies MUST use PicoP... 

1.4 Billion smartphones are produced and sold annually.

I have asked many people, after showing them a PicoP powered projector: "when it's readily available, what percentage of the smartphones made will incorporate a projector like this one?" The most common answer is "All of them."

With answers like that we can count on 10% -- no hope required. (What price?)
(Which is 140,000,000 units per year)

Of course, MicroVision also has or has added:

  • LiDAR (A massive up and coming demand for this. Backup cameras were just introduced as a requirement for vehicles, what happens when LiDAR is required?)
  • Near Eye Displays (Augmented Reality? Mixed Reality -- Talk of the town in Tech Circles.
  • Some other something that isn't any of the other things... (the black box)

It is very much a bleeding edge company. (Was perfectly capable of being problematic for 10 years.) But all indications are that now we are very close.

How much would you pay for a phone like that? (More for this than any iPhone)

Thanks Christian!

No comments:

Post a Comment