Friday, March 13, 2015

Market Capitalization Comparison: Oculus Rift

Price targets & ultimate valuations of the company and the stock.
Today's comparison: Oculus Rift.

Bought by Facebook for 2 Billion dollars.


MicroVision shares at 2 Billion: $44.94



Comparison to PicoP:

Both are display technologies. Oculus Rift is designed primarily for gamers. It does not allow (yet) interaction with the real world at the same time as with the image it generates.

PicoP technology allows large screen projection nearly anywhere. This technology enables a big screen display in your pocket.

Simplified Market size potential. 

I'm using a "simplified market size potential." There's great interest in keeping comparisons simple & meaningful. If we see all the details, we'd probably get lost in them.

Oculus: assume they sell one for EVERY game console sold: 11,500,000 (4/13-4/14)
PicoP: assume they sell to 10% of of smart phones sold: 130,000,000 (2014)

That would be market potential for PicoP technology 11.3 times more units than Oculus Rift.

MicroVision shares at 11.3 times Oculus: $507.86

Companies WILL pay for future earnings.  

This is why I have bought MicroVision stock and WILL be holding it.

Reference links:
Oculus Rift purchased by Facebook
Oculus VR

Game Console Sales 2013-2014

2,000,000,000 / 44,500,000 = 44.94

Oculus to Ship in early 2016 (new york times blogs)

3 comments:

  1. Peter, the Oculus rift will eventually run on consoles, but right now it runs on PC's - particularly gaming PC's, of which there are also significant numbers. That's something you may want to consider.

    ReplyDelete
  2. As I stated in the post. I'm trying to keep the numbers simple. There are significant numbers of PCs, yes.

    I think the best way to *simply* get the likely market penetration of something like Oculus would be to assume that ALL of the game consoles would be a sale of the device. (Which is probably an optimistic market penetration.)

    For comparison purposes, I also reduced the market penetration of PicoP to 10% of smart phones (I think it could do much more,) and ignored the other markets in which it will likely thrive.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I DO very much appreciate your comment, btw.

    I'm not trying to be argumentative, I'm simply explaining where I'm coming from, your point is well taken.

    ReplyDelete