Wednesday, July 1, 2015

Fitbit - A Market & Market Cap Comparison.

Fitbit recently went public. 

As this is being written, Fitbit is trading at a price/earnings ratio of 90.94 and a market capitalization of 8.73 billion dollars.

Fitbit is an interesting comparison for MicroVision, much like GoPro is. These are both companies that sell consumer electronics devices. 

There is probably a lot of market overlap between the Fitbit audience and the GoPro audience. The PicoP audience covers ALL of their audience and all of the couch potatoes as well.

With the CDC reporting that 80% of US citizens aren't getting enough exercise, the Fitbit audience is limited - unless you believe that a lot of people are interested in discovering and monitoring how unfit they are.

We could do a lot of guessing about how much market share is possible for each product, but ask yourself these two questions:

1) how many people do you think are worried about getting a spreadsheet of their daily heart rate and maybe having a contest with their friends
 2) how many people do you think are interested in sharing pictures, viewing video or playing games?
Who wants to carry a big-screen TV in their pocket?

Why MicroVision?

I happen to think that the size of the market represented in #2 is FAR larger than the market represented in #1. 

The market cap for Fitbit - which represents market #1 - is $8,730,000,000. Fitbit also has significant competition.

MicroVision is currently grossly undervalued. I firmly believe that if MicroVision were an IPO now, it would get a similar market valuation.

If MicroVision had Fitbit's market cap: Microvision shares would be trading at a decently valued $180/share.

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